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AssessmentsDec 19, 2024 | 22:11 GMT
Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.
Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria
Israel's expanding military and settler presence in the disputed Golan Heights will in the near term reduce threats from Syria, but over time it will stoke political tensions inside Israel, result in further diplomatic blowback and open the door to a potential proxy conflict with Turkey in Syria. Since the collapse of Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria on Dec. 8, the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, have entered the demilitarized zone along the Syrian-Israel border to seize strategic military positions, including the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, amid concern that the conflict in Syria could spill over into Israel. During a visit to the border on Dec. 17, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israeli forces would remain on the Syrian side ''until another arrangement can be found that guarantees Israel's security.'' In addition, the Israeli Air Force has conducted more than 350 strikes against targets in Syria
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Iran
Israel
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsNov 22, 2024 | 15:24 GMT
Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.
What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections
After securing a strong parliamentary majority, Senegal's ruling Patriots of Senegal party, or PASTEF, is set to implement fiscal consolidation measures to stabilize public finances, which will ease market concerns but risk eroding public support for the party over time. On Nov. 21, Senegal's National Commission for the Counting of Votes unveiled provisional results for the country's Nov. 17 snap legislative elections that showed that PASTEF won 130 of the National Assembly's 165 seats. Trailing second was former President Macky Sall's Takku Wallu Senegal coalition with 16 seats, followed by former Prime Minister Amadou Ba's Diam Ak Njarin with seven seats, and three seats for the Samm Sa Kaadu led by Dakar mayor Bathelemy Dias. Despite political tensions between PASTEF and the opposition during the campaign, the election was held without any cases of major unrest, and leading opposition figures recognized the results. While Sall denounced "massive electoral fraud" in
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Senegal
Economics
Politics
Situation ReportSep 19, 2024 | 16:40 GMT
Israel, Gaza: Israel Proposes New Gaza Cease-Fire Outline, but Constraints Remain
Israel proposed a new outline for the end of the war in Gaza that would see all hostages released at once, an end to the fighting in Gaza, the exile of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and his associates, the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, the demilitarization of the strip, and a new government for Gaza, The Times of Israel reported on Sept 19.
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 27, 2024 | 20:49 GMT
Mongolia is seen on a stock photo of a map.
In Mongolia, Elections Highlight Glacial Pace of Economic and Foreign Policy Shifts
Mongolia's upcoming parliamentary election will likely result in continued dominance by the country's oldest political party, portending limited progress on economic reforms, tackling corruption, and diversifying trade ties away from Russia and China. On June 28, Mongolia will hold elections for its unicameral legislative body, the State Great Khural. The parliamentary election will be the first held since reforms passed in May 2023 expanded the Khural from 76 to 126 seats and changed electoral procedures from a plurality-at-large system to a mixed system, with the more commonplace first-past-the-post voting for 78 seats representing 13 districts and party-list proportional representation for the remaining 48 seats. The ruling Mongolia People's Party (MPP), which currently controls 60 of the legislature's 76 seats, is seeking to maintain its supermajority against the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) and two dozen smaller parties. Whichever party or parties control parliament will also have the final say over
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Mongolia
Economics
Energy
Politics
SnapshotsDec 19, 2023 | 17:37 GMT
U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with President Joao Lourenco of Angola during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House on Nov. 30, 2023, in Washington, D.C.
Washington's 'Flagship' Africa Project: A New Supply Line for Central African Mining Exports
If completed, the Lobito Corridor project would likely improve supply lines for mining exports from Central Africa and eventually boost U.S. influence in the region. However, the project will likely face construction delays, and it is unlikely to displace the region's strong Chinese presence or immediately increase U.S. control over critical minerals. In late November, Angolan President Joao Lourenco visited Washington to discuss U.S. investment in the Lobito Corridor project, a new railway and road project that will connect mineral-rich regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to the Angolan port of Lobito. The Biden administration is touting the corridor as its flagship African development project. Lourenco's visit came a month after the Global Gateway forum in Brussels, Belgium, where the United States, the European Union, the African Development Bank and the Africa Finance Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding describing their intent to develop an alternative
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Angola
Republic of the Congo
South Africa
Zambia
United States
China
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsJun 16, 2023 | 18:35 GMT
People look at a Russian T-90 tank in Prague, Czech Republic, on July 15, 2022, as part of a display of military equipment destroyed in the war in Ukraine.
The Ukraine War Accelerates Russia's Decline as a Global Arms Exporter
Russia's dominance as a global arms exporter will likely continue to fall as a result of the Ukraine war, weakening a key element of Moscow's foreign policy and creating opportunities for other states to bolster their arms industries. The need to backfill its own losses in Ukraine, doubts about its weapons' performance, and declining Indian sales have seen Russia's arms exports plummet over the years. And recent signs suggest this trend will only continue. On June 5, India and the United States finalized a landmark roadmap for defense industry cooperation in the coming years that will significantly boost India's incentive to ramp up its domestic arms production and, in turn, further reduce its reliance on Russian weapons. This follows a report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) earlier this year that revealed Russia's share of global arms sales (in terms of actual deliveries of major arms as
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Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsFeb 10, 2023 | 21:51 GMT
A general view shows the darkened Braamfontein district of Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 15, 2023, after the ''load-shedding'' blackout was implemented.
What Does the State of Disaster Declaration Mean for South Africa's Electricity Crisis?
The government's emergency declaration will unlock extra financing and fast-track regulatory processes, but it's unlikely to address the underlying drivers forcing the country's grid operator to impose ongoing power cuts, portending more blackouts that will further damage South Africa's development and business environment. On Feb. 9, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced an indefinite state of disaster over the country's electricity crisis during his State of the Nation address at Cape Town City Hall. South Africa's electricity crisis has markedly worsened over the past two years, culminating in a record number of consecutive blackout days in 2023, widespread discontent and mounting political pressure over the administration's response, prompting emergency measures. The state of disaster will empower the government to accelerate project development, free up financial resources and cut down on regulatory requirements, which Ramaphosa said his administration will use to provide generators, solar panels and uninterrupted power supply to businesses
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South Africa
Economics
Energy
Politics
AssessmentsAug 22, 2022 | 21:08 GMT
A woman walks past a mural in Tehran, Iran, on July 31, 2022.
For Iran, a Revived Nuclear Deal Would Unlikely Offer Widespread Economic Relief
An agreement to restore the 2015 U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is unlikely as imminent as EU diplomats have suggested due to Iran's continued demands for sweeping U.S. assurances. But even if Tehran secures an agreement that guarantees widespread sanctions relief, Iran's structural economic weaknesses will continue to deter foreign investment. European officials recently expressed hope that Iran and the United States may be closer to restoring their beleaguered nuclear deal -- known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- than they have been in months, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell noting on Aug. 22 that a meeting in Vienna could take place as early as this week. But on Aug. 15, just a week after the European Union proposed its ''final'' version of a draft text to revive the JCPOA, Iran renewed its demands for ''sanctions guarantees,'' which has jeopardized the prospect of a deal being
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United States
Iran
Europe
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsJun 22, 2022 | 20:16 GMT
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett (left) and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid hold a joint press conference in Jerusalem on June 20, 2022, after agreeing to dissolve their fraught governing coalition.
Israel’s Cycle of Political Instability Continues With Another Collapsed Government
The collapse of Israel’s coalition government has triggered another period of political volatility that could again result in either a weak government or a new cycle of inconclusive elections. This could see more policy gridlock and social unrest as right-wing Israeli factions ramp up their inflammatory rhetoric in the hopes of securing more votes. On June 20, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced that the governing coalition he leads would dissolve the Knesset before the end of the month, bringing down one of the most ideologically diverse governments in Israel’s history. In recent months, several key Knesset members have defected from the coalition, The announcement comes after the defections of several key Knesset members weakened the coalition to the point where it could no longer pass legislation. Last week, lawmakers rejected a pro-settler bill to extend a two-tier legal system in the West Bank, which -- according to Bennett --
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Israel
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportDec 16, 2021 | 21:11 GMT
Brazil: European Retailers Suspend Beef Imports Over Deforestation Concerns
European supermarket chains announced plans to restrict imports of Brazilian beef products -- with some going as far as to stop all beef imports from South America -- until their consumers’ concerns about deforestation in the Amazon, as well as corporate environmental and social responsibilities, were addressed, Bloomberg reported Dec. 15. 
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Brazil
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsAug 11, 2021 | 17:27 GMT
The national flags of the European Union’s 27 member states are seen in the European Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.
EU Banks Aren’t Out of the Woods Yet
COVID-19’s long-term impact on the EU economy and the lack of a consensus on a bloc-wide banking union mean European banks remain vulnerable, despite extensive institutional and national measures to avoid a banking crisis. Since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, EU institutions and national governments have implemented several measures to assist the bloc’s banking sector and ensure the availability of credit to companies across the Continent, which has prevented a banking crisis despite the severity of the recession. The measures include cheap liquidity and funding guarantees for banks, softer regulations and the creation of emergency funds for business lending.
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Europe
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
European Disintegration
SnapshotsJun 18, 2021 | 21:28 GMT
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett (left) speaks with Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar in the Knesset on June 16, 2021.
In Gaza, Israel’s New Government Makes No Haste Asserting Itself
Israel’s new government is already signaling a shift toward more hawkish policies, raising the risk of both accidental Gaza escalations and diplomatic pushback from the United States, as well as more unrest across Israel and the West Bank. Overnight on June 17, Israel’s new governing coalition, led by right-wing nationalist Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, conducted an increased number of airstrikes against militant targets inside Gaza after Palestinian militants launched incendiary balloons against the southern Israeli border. There were no casualties on either side and escalation does not appear imminent. The airstrikes, however, could signal the beginning of a policy shift in Israel’s Gaza strategy away from the relatively restrained policies of the former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government toward a more hawkish stance favored by right-wing nationalists like Bennett, along with his coalition partners Gideon Sa’ar and Avigdor Liberman. 
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
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