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AssessmentsNov 6, 2025 | 23:03 GMT
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Tayr Debba on Nov. 6, 2025.
The Growing Risk of a New Hezbollah-Israel War
Under mounting pressure, Lebanon will pursue limited negotiations with Israel to buy time and avoid escalation over Hezbollah's disarmament, but stalled progress and the group's efforts to rebuild its military capabilities make it highly likely that Israel will intensify its aerial attacks, raising the risk of another war that would almost certainly collapse Lebanon's government and indefinitely delay elections. On Nov. 6, Israel conducted airstrikes on several residential buildings in southern Lebanese towns after issuing evacuation orders. Israel claimed the targeted sites were being used by the Lebanese and political militant group Hezbollah to rebuild its military capabilities, in violation of the ceasefire agreement the two sides signed nearly a year ago, on Nov. 27, 2024. Such strikes have become increasingly frequent in recent weeks, which the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has framed as enforcement of the ceasefire. Israel maintains that Beirut is not taking concrete steps to disarm Hezbollah
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Israel
Lebanon
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 6, 2025 | 19:38 GMT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addresses the Senate in Rome on Oct. 22, 2025.
Italy Struggles To Translate Political Stability Into Economic Growth
Italy's political and fiscal stability has markedly improved under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and while upcoming institutional reforms could help her further consolidate power ahead of the 2027 elections, weak growth and the expiry of EU recovery funds may compel her to abandon recent fiscal prudence, potentially once again testing investor confidence in the country's fiscal trajectory. On Oct. 30, Italy's Senate gave final approval to Meloni's flagship justice reform, which establishes separate career paths for judges and prosecutors and bans magistrates from switching between these roles. The proposed constitutional amendment also restructures the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM) -- the top self-governing body of the Italian judiciary -- into two distinct branches and expands the President of the Republic's authority over appointments, promotions and disciplinary action. The reform will now proceed to a confirmatory referendum, expected in March or April, where Italian voters will decide whether the constitutional
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Italy
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 22:41 GMT
Entrance signage is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on July 23, 2024.
Why Saudi Arabia Won't Backfill Russia's Sanctioned Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will likely prioritize cooperation with Russia on oil production policy amid U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and pressure on Riyadh to compensate for lost supply, even if it risks angering the United States. Eight OPEC+ members, which have been voluntarily cutting oil production, agreed at their Nov. 2 virtual meeting to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, but to pause production increases for the first three months of 2026. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was reportedly the main proponent of the three-month pause in production hikes, as the meeting came less than two weeks after the United States sanctioned Russia's two largest oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Oct. 22. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, reportedly agreed to the pause because oil demand typically slows in the first quarter of the year. The pause also gives Saudi Arabia and its
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Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Russia
Energy
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 22:48 GMT
A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025.
Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?
The United States is pressuring Nigeria to take visible action against armed groups targeting Christian communities, but Abuja faces multiple constraints to curb the violence, and fresh instances of high-profile intercommunal attacks would increase the likelihood of U.S. airstrikes in Nigeria. On Oct. 31, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he was designating Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern due to the killing of Christians in the country. The following day, Trump warned that his administration would ''immediately stop all aid and assistance'' to Nigeria if its government ''continue[d] to allow the killing of Christians,'' and said he had instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to prepare for ''possible action'' in the country. Trump later told reporters on board Air Force One that this could involve launching air strikes or deploying ground troops. In response to Trump's comments, a spokesperson for Nigerian President
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Nigeria
United States
Military & Security
Situation ReportNov 4, 2025 | 16:27 GMT
North Korea, U.S.: Trump-Kim Summit a Near-Miss, Meeting Expected After March
South Korea's National Intelligence Service said during a closed-door parliamentary briefing on Nov. 4 that it had detected signs that North Korea was preparing for a summit between leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Yonhap News Agency reported the same day.
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United States
North Korea
South Korea
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 3, 2025 | 22:37 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.
President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years
China's policy plan for 2026-2030 lays out continuity in economic policy but also highlights an intent to pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, launch internal anti-corruption probes to enforce President Xi Jinping's policy vision, and use lawfare amid foreign disputes. On Oct. 28, China's State Council published the details of the Chinese Communist Party's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) for National Economic and Social Development, which was passed at the CCP's recent Fourth Plenum in Beijing from Oct. 20-23. The document charts China's policy trajectory from 2026-2030, but it is mainly thematic and qualitative in nature, lacking many of the quantitative targets that China's rubber-stamp legislature will unveil at its annual meeting in March 2026. Still, the document reflects the policy priorities of the CCP and, thus, those of China's central government. It also offers a rare glimpse into the worldview of China's leadership, particularly
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China
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportNov 3, 2025 | 19:02 GMT
OPEC+: Bloc To Halt Production Hikes in Early 2026 Amid Oil Glut, Russian Sanctions Concerns
At their Nov. 2 meeting, the eight OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary production cuts agreed to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day in December -- the third consecutive small production hike of that level -- but plan to pause production hikes from January-March 2026, Reuters reported.
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Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Nigeria
Republic of the Congo
Venezuela
Algeria
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Russia
Energy
AssessmentsOct 31, 2025 | 20:04 GMT
An aerial photo shows the Saudi capital of Riyadh.
The Modern Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's national strategy is challenged by its austere past and potential future. The kingdom seeks alignment with a regional and global order to achieve middle power status while preventing internal divisions spurred by the very reforms it is using to walk that path. It is vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and internal erosion of consensus, especially the latter. Riyadh's monarchy must manage these imperatives effectively to avoid a return to a divided, foreign-controlled state, mirroring its 20th-century beginning.
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Saudi Arabia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
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United States
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
On SecurityOct 29, 2025 | 15:39 GMT
Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building.
Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success
In recent weeks, a flurry of youth-led mass protests, often given the moniker ''Gen Z,'' has swept across countries in Africa and Asia. Despite each protest movement having its own unique features, there are signs that they have been inspiring, if not significantly coordinating with each other. They share a common frustration with the ruling elite and a belief that poor governance -- due to the rising cost of living, high-level corruption, social injustice, worsening authoritarianism or otherwise -- is mortgaging their futures. These movements not only have generated empathy from outsiders but also resulted in changes, from regime change or changes to unpopular legislation, that open the door to reforms to countries' political structures, economic systems and security apparatuses. But these uprisings also entail numerous risks beyond the obvious potential for near-term violence. These dangers are often overlooked, yet Gen Z protesters will have to confront the same fundamental
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Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
South Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Serbia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 15:05 GMT
Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.
Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain
After years of stagnation, the German economy will receive a boost from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure, but a failure to implement flanking structural reform will mean that the boost to medium-term economic growth will be limited. In recent weeks, numerous media reports have cast doubt on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ambitious plans to reform the economy. Since taking office in May after forming a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority between his center-right Christian Democratic Union or CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party or SPD, Merz's government has reformed the constitutionally mandated limits on government deficits and has committed to significant increases in defense expenditure and infrastructure, especially of transport. The new government has also agreed to implement reforms aimed at reducing growth-impeding bureaucratic rules governing product markets and infrastructure investment. However, despite these goals, thus far intra-coalition disagreements have translated into more limited practical results
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Germany
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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