AssessmentsJun 30, 2025 | 15:02 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 28, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:08 GMT
China, U.S.: Washington, Beijing Finalize Rare Earth Trade Truce
The United States and China finalized their June framework trade agreement under which China has pledged to resume rare earth exports to the United States in exchange for rollbacks of certain U.S. trade restrictions on non-sensitive goods, like ethane and air components, Bloomberg reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
U.S., Mexico: Treasury Restricts U.S. Business With Three Mexican Financial Institutions Accused of Cartel Financing
The U.S. Treasury Department identified Mexican banks CIBanco and Intercam and brokerage company Vector Casa de Bolsa as being of primary money laundering concern in connection with illicit opioid trafficking over alleged laundering of millions of dollars for cartels, according to a June 25 Treasury press release.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 20:10 GMT
China: Rare Earths Delays Undermine Export Pledge
China continues to delay or deny export licenses for rare earth magnets and raw materials, disrupting supply chains for Western manufacturers despite a recent pledge to ease restrictions, The Wall Street Journal reported on June 26.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 16:43 GMT
U.S., Israel: Trump Criticizes Israeli Corruption Case as Polls Signal Waning Support for Netanyahu
U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the long-running corruption trial against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a TruthSocial post and said the trial should be cancelled, Reuters reported on June 26.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 23, 2025 | 19:06 GMT
China, U.S.: Beijing Bans Two Fentanyl Precursors as Rare Earth Exports Dropped 80% in May
China added two fentanyl precursor chemicals to its Class Two list, enabling stricter supervision of their export starting July 20 in what Chinese officials deemed "a contribution to global drug control," Bloomberg reported on June 23.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 23, 2025 | 15:15 GMT
Oman: Personal Income Tax Marks First in GCC
In a June 22 royal decree, Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al Said ratified a 5% income tax on residents in Oman earning over 42,000 rials ($109,000), Bloomberg reported the next day.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 22, 2025 | 15:35 GMT
Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation
Iran will likely try to calibrate its kinetic response to the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities to avoid significant escalation, but its response will open the door to further attacks that include Iran targeting regional oil and gas production. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 22 said that the United States had "blown up" diplomacy with its decision to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities earlier that day, and that "we have to respond" following what has been more than a week of Israeli attacks that began on June 13. When asked by a reporter about potential retaliation options, Araghchi would not rule out an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or harass ships in the strait, or an exit from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In response to the attacks, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a June 22 statement that the United States had put
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsJun 20, 2025 | 22:05 GMT
Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran
While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 20, 2025 | 17:48 GMT
EU, China: Brussels Limits Chinese Access to Public Medical Device Contracts
The European Union will restrict Chinese access to public procurement contracts for medical devices valued above 5 million euros ($5.7 million) starting June 30, the European Commission said in a June 20 press release.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 17, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
EU, China: Brussels Calls Off Economic Dialogue With China Ahead of July Summit
The European Union decided not to convene its EU-China High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue ahead of the leaders' summit in Beijing on July 24-25, citing a lack of progress on key trade disputes, the Financial Times reported on June 17, referencing internal EU sources.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 16, 2025 | 16:05 GMT
U.S., China: Beijing Links Rare Earths to U.S. Chip Curbs, Extension of 90-Day Tariff Reprieve Discussed
At the U.S.-China trade talks in London from June 9-10, the Chinese delegation made no commitments to easing curbs on exports of rare earths crucial to the production of U.S. fighter jets and missile systems, but appeared to link Chinese concessions on such rare earths to the reduction of U.S. export restrictions on advanced semiconductors to China, according to Reuters sources on June 15.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 14, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: G7 Leaders' Summit, More Israeli Attacks on Iran
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 12, 2025 | 20:23 GMT
Myanmar, China: Beijing-Backed Militia Takes Control of Rare Earths Mines
Myanmar's China-backed United Wa State Army, or USWA, controls Shan state's new rare earth extraction sites that were constructed from 2023 to 2025 and are now operational, Reuters reported on June 12, citing satellite imagery and local interviews.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 12, 2025 | 16:44 GMT
The Feasibility and Risks of Trump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Shield
The White House's plan for a U.S. missile defense shield will likely face large technical hurdles, cost overruns and delays, but even a system that falls short of its expansive aims would threaten to accelerate the militarization of space and an arms race, as well as add momentum behind the commercialization of space. On June 10, two Republican members of the House of Representatives announced the formation of a Golden Dome Caucus, which will collaborate with one launched in the Senate last month, to provide legislative backing for U.S. President Donald Trump's expansive vision for an antimissile defense system to cover the United States. In remarks made on May 20, Trump estimated that the initiative would cost about $175 billion and would be operational before he leaves office in January 2029. The specifics of the effort are still being developed and many details will remain classified, but Trump said that
READ MORESnapshotsJun 11, 2025 | 19:25 GMT
U.S.-China Framework To Implement Trade Deal Will Only Temporarily Ease Tensions
As part of the new framework reached to implement its May 12 trade deal with China, the United States might ease or pause technology restrictions on the country, but it will eventually expand them again, potentially causing China to restrict its rare earth exports and/or other critical raw materials once more. On June 10, U.S. and Chinese negotiators reached an agreement on a framework to implement their May 12 trade deal that saw both sides scale back the sweeping tariffs they had implemented against each other in early April. No details about the framework have yet been released, and both countries' leaders still need to approve the deal. However, in a Truth Social post on June 11, U.S. President Donald Trump said students from China would be allowed to continue studying in the United States, appearing to walk back plans announced on May 28 to "aggressively revoke" visas for Chinese
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 10, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
How a Government Collapse Could Alter Israeli Foreign Policy
A potentially imminent collapse of the Israeli government would pressure the caretaker government to make concessions in Gaza and, if current polling holds, would likely result in a new government willing to take a different approach toward Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 9, 2025 | 22:17 GMT
In Trade War With U.S., China Finds a Pressure Point With Magnet Restrictions
Although China appears to be expediting the approval process of rare earth shipments, Beijing will likely continue to wield restrictions on such exports in the face of growing U.S. technology and trade restrictions, sustaining a high risk of future supply chain disruptions, particularly for automakers. U.S.-China trade talks in London focusing on export controls began on June 9 amid a growing supply chain crisis for U.S. and other Western automakers following China's April 4 introduction of a new export licensing regime covering seven rare earth elements. China introduced those measures in response to sweeping new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that the United States announced on April 2. Since then, China has approved far fewer exports of these rare earth magnets, which have aerospace and defense applications due to their high heat tolerance, but are also widely used in vehicles. This has led to global shortages due to China's market
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