On SecurityJan 12, 2021 | 10:00 GMT
With the recent approval of several different COVID-19 vaccines and several countries already administering shots, criminal groups have numerous means of exploiting the global vaccination campaign.
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AssessmentsJan 6, 2021 | 19:01 GMT
Peru is a rare emerging market country that has time to address long-term issues without putting immediate growth at risk -- but only if it takes advantage of that grace period to act. Peru’s primary economic headwinds include reduced growth momentum, with concerns about the country’s long-term financial prospects and political stalemates delaying crucial economic reforms. Such headwinds could hamper fiscal deficit reduction if Peru cannot legislate tax increases or resist spending pressure. In addition, global GDP growth will determine the demand for commodities and metals prices.
READ MOREGuidanceJan 2, 2021 | 14:00 GMT
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
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SITUATION REPORTDec 1, 2020 | 21:19 GMT
Israel, Iran: IRGC Commander Allegedly Killed in Airstrike Near Syria-Iraq Border Iraqi officials claimed that a high-ranking commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards was among those killed in a recent Israeli airstrike near the Syria-Iraqi border, Reuters reported Nov. 30.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTNov 25, 2020 | 19:47 GMT
Kenya: Country Seeking $2.3 Billion Loan From IMFThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced a broad agreement on policy objectives for a $2.3 billion Extended Fund Facility arrangement with Kenya, Bloomberg reported Nov. 22.
READ MORESnapshotsNov 24, 2020 | 18:24 GMT
A deeper defense relationship could help Riyadh and Israel counter Iran in proxy theaters such as Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTNov 18, 2020 | 22:15 GMT
Syria: Israel Conducts Retaliatory Airstrikes Against Iranian Targets Near Damascus Israel announced that it conducted a series of airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets outside of the Syrian city of Damascus in what it claimed was retaliation for an attempted bomb planting operation along the Golan Heights earlier this month, the Times of Israel reported Nov. 18.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 13, 2020 | 19:22 GMT
As countries across Europe introduce tighter restrictions in response to increasing COVID-19 cases and deaths, social unrest and protests against the measures are increasing, too. This is not the first time we've seen violent protests in response to European COVID-19 policies, but this time around they have been more intense and widespread. Throughout the summer and early fall, periodic protest activity in major European cities led to arrests or clashes with police. In May, Paris police arrested protesters in the central Place de Republique while London's Metropolitan police clashed with protesters in Trafalgar Square in September. The hardships caused by COVID-19 and the associated restrictions, as well as sympathetic Black Lives Matter protests in early summer, led to elevated protest activity across Europe this year. At no other point this year, however, has protest activity been so intense across such a broad swath of the Continent over such a short
READ MORESITUATION REPORTNov 11, 2020 | 20:32 GMT
Saudi Arabia: World War I Commemoration Attended by European Diplomats BombedAn improvised explosive device injured at least two people Nov. 11 in an attack on a World War I commemoration organized by the French Embassy in Jeddah and attended by several European diplomats, AFP reported. No group has claimed credit for the attack, and the culprit has not been identified.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTNov 9, 2020 | 21:09 GMT
Iraq: Rare Islamic State Attack Outside Baghdad Kills 11A coordinated attack by the Islamic State killed at least 11 people and wounded eight more Nov. 8 at a military post run by a local tribal militia in the Radwaniyah area of southwestern Baghdad near the international airport, AFP reported Nov. 9.
READ MORESnapshotsNov 9, 2020 | 20:20 GMT
Intra-Kurdish clashes in northern Iraq could lead to additional attacks against nearby oil infrastructure, as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) retaliates against attempts by Iraqi and Turkish forces to reduce the group’s presence and activity in the resource-rich region. On Nov. 4, PKK militants attacked a convoy of Kurdish peshmerga forces in the Chamanke area of Iraq's Dohuk province, resulting in one death and two other injuries. There were also two reported PKK attacks on the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)'s oil and gas police in Dohuk, wounding policemen protecting petroleum facilities.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTNov 2, 2020 | 21:08 GMT
Thailand: King Makes First Public Comment on Protests in Rare Media Interview When asked about the ongoing anti-government demonstrations in Thailand, Thai King Maha Vajiralongkor said he "loves [the protesters] all the same" and that Thailand was "the land of compromise” during a rare media interview with CNN and Channel 4 News on Nov. 1.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 23, 2020 | 18:21 GMT
New survey data suggests that Saudi Arabia’s citizens remain politically aligned with and supportive of the government, though that support may quickly dissipate as Riyadh makes difficult decisions on economic restructuring. The Arab Opinion Index, a survey compiled by the Doha Institute in Qatar, gives rare insight into regional social and political trends in the Middle East. For Saudi Arabia, the latest survey findings reveal a population largely content with their economic and political situations. Saudis’ economic well-being, however, will be undercut as pandemic-related losses of oil revenue and the arrival of peak oil demand force their government to make deeper cuts to crucial social programs, creating pockets of unrest across the kingdom.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 21, 2020 | 22:02 GMT
Egypt’s strong macroeconomic performance amid the COVID-19 pandemic and continued appeal to foreign investors hold promise for Cairo’s near-term financial stability. But it does not resolve the country’s stubbornly high poverty levels, which will eventually become a political liability by stoking anti-government sentiment. In an address on Oct. 18, Egypt’s finance minister said economic growth has exceeded even the finance ministry’s previous projections for 2020. This confidence reflects recent positive adjustments to Egypt’s economic outlook projections by Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- all of which now see Egypt’s economy growing at 3.5 percent of GDP in this year, exceeding the performance of most of its regional peers. But Cairo’s ongoing pursuit of business-friendly economic reforms in lieu of measures that address rising poverty levels could backfire by raising the risk of social unrest that ultimately deters foreign investment.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 15, 2020 | 21:43 GMT
Russia: Former Finance Minister Warns Against Cutting Defense BudgetRussia's former finance minister and current head of its Accounts Chamber, Alexei Kudrin, told legislators that their plans to reduce the country’s defense budget to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2030 will put military spending below the required level to guarantee national security, Ros Business Consulting reported Oct. 15.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 13, 2020 | 19:02 GMT
Afghanistan: U.S. Launches Airstrikes Against Taliban in Southern Province The United States conducted airstrikes against Taliban targets in the southern Helmand province of Afghanistan, where the militant group recently launched an offensive against Afghan forces, Al Jazeera reported Oct. 12.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 13, 2020 | 15:52 GMT
Turkey is poised to soon test its new Russian S-400 missile system, betting that the immediate U.S. pushback will remain symbolic and not include sanctions. Turkey has signaled it will test the S-400 missile system near the Black Sea province of Sinop from Oct. 13-16, according to a “notice to airmen” from the Turkish government that warned of unspecific missile testing. Washington already ended Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program as punishment for purchasing the S-400 system, which it fears will provide Moscow with a backdoor to gain information on advanced NATO weapon systems, such as the F-35, in addition to fostering overall greater security cooperation between Turkey and Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has yet to signal any plans of enacting new sanctions on Turkey, which -- while popular in Congress -- would have to overcome a presidential veto.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 12, 2020 | 20:57 GMT
The United Arab Emirates is considering offering citizenship to its large expatriate population, which would significantly alter the country’s political economy, as well as its regional relationships, by assimilating non-Arab Gulf residents into its middle- and upper-classes. Over time, this new group of foreign-born Emirati citizens would likely erode the tribal and ethnic dynamics that have long shaped the governance of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, along with the cultural foundations driving many aspects of cooperation in the Arab Gulf. On Sept. 30, the Emirati government unveiled proposed changes to the country’s citizenship law that would ease the way for investors, long-term residents and wealthy foreigners to earn a permanent place in the country. With foreigners far outnumbering its local population, the United Arab Emirates’ current citizenship laws have offset the country’s long-standing demographic imbalances by ensuring the influence and prominence of its minority Emiratis via special legal and political protections. Changing
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 6, 2020 | 21:40 GMT
North Korea: 80-Day Economic Growth Campaign LaunchedNorth Korean Leader Kim Jong Un officially launched an 80-day campaign to reach the economic goals set out by the country before the Eighth Congress of the Party in January 2021, KCNA reported Oct. 6.
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