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AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 22:41 GMT
Entrance signage is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on July 23, 2024.
Why Saudi Arabia Won't Backfill Russia's Sanctioned Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will likely prioritize cooperation with Russia on oil production policy amid U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and pressure on Riyadh to compensate for lost supply, even if it risks angering the United States. Eight OPEC+ members, which have been voluntarily cutting oil production, agreed at their Nov. 2 virtual meeting to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, but to pause production increases for the first three months of 2026. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was reportedly the main proponent of the three-month pause in production hikes, as the meeting came less than two weeks after the United States sanctioned Russia's two largest oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Oct. 22. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, reportedly agreed to the pause because oil demand typically slows in the first quarter of the year. The pause also gives Saudi Arabia and its
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Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Russia
Energy
AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 21:38 GMT
Malian trucks carrying fuel are seen waiting to cross the border between Cote d'Ivoire and Mali on Oct. 31, 2025.
Mali's Junta Fights for Its Life as Jihadists Tighten Their Noose on Bamako
Jihadists' fuel blockade on Mali's capital is set to increase popular and elite pressure on the ruling junta, whose likely inability to use force to fully lift the blockade portends rising intra-junta tensions that risk fragmenting the country's security forces, a development that jihadists would likely exploit to advance toward the capital. On Oct. 28, the U.S. Embassy in Mali issued a security alert calling on all U.S. nationals to immediately leave the country amid a worsening fuel blockade by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the capital Bamako and other major cities. The fuel blockade, which began in early September, has led to severe shortages of diesel and gasoline, bringing the economy to a standstill and causing fuel prices to increase by up to 500%. While Mali's junta has deployed security forces to escort fuel truck convoys importing petroleum products from neighboring countries, this has not
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Mali
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 22:48 GMT
A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025.
Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?
The United States is pressuring Nigeria to take visible action against armed groups targeting Christian communities, but Abuja faces multiple constraints to curb the violence, and fresh instances of high-profile intercommunal attacks would increase the likelihood of U.S. airstrikes in Nigeria. On Oct. 31, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he was designating Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern due to the killing of Christians in the country. The following day, Trump warned that his administration would ''immediately stop all aid and assistance'' to Nigeria if its government ''continue[d] to allow the killing of Christians,'' and said he had instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to prepare for ''possible action'' in the country. Trump later told reporters on board Air Force One that this could involve launching air strikes or deploying ground troops. In response to Trump's comments, a spokesperson for Nigerian President
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Nigeria
United States
Military & Security
Situation ReportNov 4, 2025 | 18:16 GMT
Cameroon: Opposition Leader Tchiroma Reportedly Relocates to Nigeria
Cameroonian opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who has contested incumbent candidate Paul Biya's victory in the October presidential election, has reportedly moved to Nigeria's Adamawa state, where Nigerian intelligence services are monitoring his presence and anticipating a potential request for his extradition, Africa Intelligence reported on Nov. 4.
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Cameroon
Nigeria
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 16:48 GMT
The COP30 logo at the central building is seen ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 on Nov. 3, 2025 in Belem, Brazil.
A Breakthrough on Climate Targets is Unlikely at Brazil's COP30
At the COP30 climate conference, countries are likely to reach only limited agreements on climate financing and carbon market frameworks while failing to achieve consensus on phasing out fossil fuels, making significant progress on implementation unlikely and postponing key decisions for another year. Brazil will host the 30th U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP30) from Nov. 10 to 21 in the Amazonian city of Belem. The event's agenda has been structured around six thematic axes: energy, industry and transport; forests, oceans and biodiversity; agriculture and food systems; cities, infrastructure and water; human and social development; and cross-cutting issues. The Brazilian government is seeking to build on previous COP outcomes while pushing the transition from negotiation to execution across mitigation, adaptation and climate finance. Delegates from more than 170 countries will seek to finalize the implementation phase of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which consists of five-year review cycles of countries' climate action
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Brazil
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
Social Issues
Situation ReportNov 4, 2025 | 16:27 GMT
North Korea, U.S.: Trump-Kim Summit a Near-Miss, Meeting Expected After March
South Korea's National Intelligence Service said during a closed-door parliamentary briefing on Nov. 4 that it had detected signs that North Korea was preparing for a summit between leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Yonhap News Agency reported the same day.
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United States
North Korea
South Korea
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 3, 2025 | 22:37 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.
President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years
China's policy plan for 2026-2030 lays out continuity in economic policy but also highlights an intent to pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, launch internal anti-corruption probes to enforce President Xi Jinping's policy vision, and use lawfare amid foreign disputes. On Oct. 28, China's State Council published the details of the Chinese Communist Party's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) for National Economic and Social Development, which was passed at the CCP's recent Fourth Plenum in Beijing from Oct. 20-23. The document charts China's policy trajectory from 2026-2030, but it is mainly thematic and qualitative in nature, lacking many of the quantitative targets that China's rubber-stamp legislature will unveil at its annual meeting in March 2026. Still, the document reflects the policy priorities of the CCP and, thus, those of China's central government. It also offers a rare glimpse into the worldview of China's leadership, particularly
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China
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportNov 3, 2025 | 19:55 GMT
Nigeria: Government Signals Readiness for Cooperation With U.S. After Trump's Threats
An advisor to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu welcomed assistance from the United States against armed groups targeting Christian communities and hinted at a potential meeting between Tinubu and U.S. President Donald Trump, but stressed that such U.S. support needed to respect Nigeria's sovereignty, Reuters reported on Nov. 3.
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Nigeria
United States
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 3, 2025 | 19:16 GMT
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka logo is seen outside the bank's headquarters in Colombo on July 6, 2023.
Sri Lanka on Track To Unlock Next IMF Disbursement, but Challenges Remain
The International Monetary Fund will likely approve the fifth review of Sri Lanka's bailout program due to the country's strong fiscal performance, steady progress on debt restructuring and political stability, though high poverty levels and delayed state-enterprise reforms will remain key risks. Sri Lanka is awaiting approval from the IMF Executive Board for the fifth review of its bailout program, which would unlock approximately $347 million in funding, bringing the total funds released under its nearly $3 billion support program to around $2.04 billion. This follows an IMF staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka on Oct. 9, where both sides agreed that while fiscal performance has been strong, sustaining momentum will require improved tax compliance, a broader tax base and plugging revenue leakages, among other reforms.
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Sri Lanka
Economics
Situation ReportNov 3, 2025 | 19:02 GMT
OPEC+: Bloc To Halt Production Hikes in Early 2026 Amid Oil Glut, Russian Sanctions Concerns
At their Nov. 2 meeting, the eight OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary production cuts agreed to boost production by 137,000 barrels per day in December -- the third consecutive small production hike of that level -- but plan to pause production hikes from January-March 2026, Reuters reported.
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