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SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries
The U.S. decision to pause key arms deliveries to Ukraine will degrade Ukraine's ability to repel intensifying Russian attacks, raising the risk that Kyiv could eventually be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms in future peace negotiations if Washington does not reverse its decision or if Ukraine fails to secure alternative support. On July 1, the United States announced it was pausing the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. According to U.S. officials cited in multiple media reports, the weapons affected by this decision include interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, precision-guided artillery shells and air-launched missiles compatible with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets. While the list of delayed weapons has not been made public, if the media reports are accurate, the freeze will impact deliveries of weapons that are critical to Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities. On July 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it had not received any official
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 19:32 GMT
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024.
In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church
In Armenia, an escalating dispute between the prime minister and the country's national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan, raising the risk of another military confrontation. On June 25, Armenian authorities arrested Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and 13 other people on charges of plotting violence and other destabilizing actions to overthrow the government and seize power. According to the country's top criminal investigative agency, the conspirators had recruited more than 1,000 people since the start of the year, and investigators allegedly have already recovered firearms, ammunition and other items linking them to the plot. The arrests, which the archbishop's supporters have called politically motivated, are the most severe developments in an escalating feud between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church, one of the most influential institutions in the country. The standoff began in late May,
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day.
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
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China
New Zealand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 19, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to media during the closing press conference of the G7 Summit in Fasano, Italy, on June 15, 2024.
Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives
Facing fiscal and political constraints, Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan within broader EU and multilateral frameworks to secure greater financial and political backing and punch above its weight in advancing energy diversification and migration management goals in Africa. But structural limitations will likely constrain Rome's ability to expand its influence on the continent beyond a narrow set of strategic interests. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair a high-level summit in Rome on June 20, bringing together leaders from several African countries and key multilateral financial institutions to advance Italy's strategic development initiative for Africa, known as the Mattei Plan for Africa, and align it with the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure and connectivity investment framework. Discussions will center on shared priorities, such as advancing sustainable infrastructure, energy cooperation, digital and physical connectivity, vocational training
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe
Italy
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022.
What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out?
The Africa Corps' reported takeover of remaining Wagner Group units in Mali indicates that Russia will likely sustain bilateral defense cooperation over the coming year, but Moscow's military support is unlikely to prevent Mali's security environment from deteriorating further, portending rising threats to the capital, Bamako. On June 6, Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group announced on its Telegram channel that it would exit Mali, where it was first deployed in December 2021 to support counterterrorism operations and provide personal protection for the country's Russia-friendly junta. The same day, the Africa Corps -- another Russian paramilitary organization that is closely backed by Russia's Ministry of Defense -- announced that it would remain in the country. Thereafter, diplomatic sources quoted by Agence France-Presse said on June 8 that the Africa Corps had taken over the Wagner Group's remaining military units in Mali. Amid the reorganization of Russia's military presence in the country, Mali's
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Mali
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportJun 18, 2025 | 16:49 GMT
Romania: Mainstream Parties To Form Broad Coalition Government
Romanian President Nicusor Dan and the country's main centrist, pro-European parties -- the center-left Social Democratic Party, the center-right National Liberal Party, the liberal center-right Save Romania Union and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania -- agreed to form a new, rotating coalition government, Euractiv reported on June 17.
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Romania
Economics
Politics
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