AssessmentsFeb 28, 2026 | 12:06 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: The Conflict in the Middle East, Merz meets Trump
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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SnapshotsFeb 28, 2026 | 11:44 GMT
A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation
Joint U.S.-Israel military operations Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but even this level of escalation remains unlikely on its own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 27, 2026 | 21:58 GMT
Netanyahu Will Struggle To Defeat Hamas Before Israeli Elections
The United States is unlikely to give Israel an open-ended commitment to renew war in Gaza in the near term, which will complicate the Israeli government's re-election path and the sustainability of its Gaza strategy to eject Hamas from the Strip. On Feb. 19, the United States formally inaugurated President Donald Trump's "Board of Peace," an initiative whose main goal is to design post-war policy for Gaza. The board is meant to cap off Trump's pledge to end the war in Gaza and reconstruct the battered Strip. Still, it comes on the backdrop of continued fighting between Israel and Hamas in the territory and deep uncertainty over the viability of reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel has shown little interest in Trump's overarching vision for peace in Gaza. Although Israel dispatched representatives to the Board of Peace's unveiling, Israeli officials have consistently signaled a divergence with Washington over how to approach Gaza. Israel
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 27, 2026 | 20:34 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 27, 2026 | 20:12 GMT
Mexico: Violence Declines Following Surge After Death of Cartel Leader
Shootings, arson attacks and blockades by the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, or CJNG, in response to the Feb. 22 operation that resulted in the death of the group's leader, Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," have declined substantially as of Feb. 27, BorderReport reported the same day.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 27, 2026 | 20:08 GMT
South Korea: Seoul Permits Google Navigation, Will Facilitate U.S. Trade Deal
South Korea's infrastructure ministry announced that it would allow Google to export government-provided precise map data to overseas premises "on condition that Google strictly comply with security guidelines," Yonhap News Agency reported on Feb. 27.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 27, 2026 | 17:35 GMT
Congo: Kinshasa Signs $1.2B Health Deal With Trump Administration, Despite Africa CDC Warnings
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding according to which Washington will provide up to $900 million in assistance for Congo's health care sector over 2026-31, while Congo will increase its domestic health expenditure by $300 million over the same period, Reuters reported on Feb. 26.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 27, 2026 | 16:46 GMT
Iran, U.S.: U.S. Evacuates Israeli Embassy After Geneva Talks Conclude, Vienna Talks Scheduled
The U.S. State Department authorized the departure of nonemergency personnel and family members from the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem and its branch office in Tel Aviv, Axios reported on Feb. 27.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 27, 2026 | 16:44 GMT
U.S., Syria: U.S. Warns Syria Against Chinese Telecoms
The U.S. State Department warned Syria's Communications Minister Abdulsalam Haykal in San Francisco earlier the week of Feb. 23 to avoid relying on Chinese telecommunications technology, Reuters reported on Feb. 27.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 26, 2026 | 23:09 GMT
To Escape Russia's Orbit, Armenia and Azerbaijan Turn to Each Other -- and the West
Armenia and Azerbaijan will seek to capitalize on momentum toward a final peace treaty amid expanding Western engagement to fill the vacuum left by a weakened Russia, but this geopolitical realignment will be tested by Moscow's influence operations ahead of elections in Armenia and Iran's competing geopolitical interests. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan on Feb. 9-11, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the region since 2008. The trip sought to capitalize on diplomatic momentum generated by the August 2025 White House summit, where U.S. President Donald Trump convened the two nations' leaders to sign a draft peace agreement. In Yerevan, Vance met Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to announce the conclusion of negotiations on a U.S.-Armenia civil nuclear cooperation agreement, establishing a legal framework for the construction of a new nuclear power plant using U.S. technology to replace the aging Metsamor nuclear power plant. He
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 22:18 GMT
Ukraine, U.S.: Bilateral Talks in Geneva Conclude Amid Kremlin's Hardening Stance
Ukraine and the United States concluded bilateral talks in Geneva, Switzerland, that focused on Ukraine's security, reconstruction and preparations for the next trilateral round with Russia, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov announced on X on Feb. 26.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 21:50 GMT
Iran, U.S.: Nuclear Talks Appear To Make Some Progress, Technical Talks Scheduled for Next Week
Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi said in a Feb. 26 post on X that indirect talks between the United States and Iran, which Oman is mediating, saw "significant progress" after two sessions were held the same day, adding that technical discussions would take place "next week" in Vienna, Austria.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 21:45 GMT
North Korea: Party Congress Ends With Bluster, but Door Left Open for Dialogue With Washington
North Korea's weeklong ruling Workers' Party congress concluded on Feb. 25, with leader Kim Jong Un calling for new strategic weapons development, warning Pyongyang could destroy Seoul if threatened by South Korea or the United States, and formally defining inter-Korean ties as those between "two hostile states," rather than one state with rival governments, Yonhap News Agency reported the same day.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 21:43 GMT
China: Military Purge Expands, Deepening Command Uncertainty
The Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress removed nine serving officers from their positions as delegates to the National People's Congress, including Ground Force Commander Li Qiaoming and Information Support Force Political Commissar Li Wei, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 26.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 21:41 GMT
Mexico: Government To Present Electoral Reform Proposal
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that she will send to Congress a bill to reform the country's electoral system by March 2, El Pais reported on Feb. 25.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 26, 2026 | 20:28 GMT
Will Lebanon's Draft Banking Law Unlock an IMF Deal?
The Lebanese government's contentious banking reform proposal will face obstacles in parliament and, even if adopted, Beirut will need to balance repayment with debt sustainability, but successful implementation would mark progress toward an IMF program and likely boost short-term economic growth. Nearly two weeks have passed since a delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed a Feb. 10-13 visit to Beirut to discuss Lebanon's recent efforts to restructure its banking sector after the Lebanese Cabinet advanced the draft Financial Stabilization and Depositor Recovery law, or "gap law", for consideration by parliament. The bill's main provision is to repay Lebanese depositors up to $100,000 in cash over a four-year period and, over time, restore depositor confidence in the Lebanese banking system. Small depositors -- those with deposits under $100,000 -- comprise around 85% of all Lebanese accounts, and the total cost of repaying them is estimated to be around $20
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 18:09 GMT
Angola: Sonangol Pushes for Diversification in Critical Minerals Amid Declining Profits From Hydrocarbons
The CEO of Angola's state-owned oil and gas company Sonangol, Sebastiao Gaspar Martins, said the company was seeking to diversify into critical minerals, adding that it currently held seven concessions to explore and develop uranium, lithium and quartz, Reuters reported on Feb. 25.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 17:35 GMT
U.S., Cuba: Oil Import Authorization To Only Marginally Alleviate Energy Crisis
The U.S. Treasury Department announced that it will allow the sale of oil and gas to Cuba's private sector and citizens, Reuters reported on Feb. 25.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 17:29 GMT
Italy: Ruling Coalition Agrees on Electoral Reform Introducing Proportional System With Majority Bonus
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's governing coalition reached an agreement to reform the country's electoral law, introducing a proportional system with a majority bonus of 70 seats in the lower house and 35 in the upper house for coalitions surpassing 40% of the vote, Italian press agency ANSA reported Feb. 26.
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2026 | 16:09 GMT
China, U.S.: Chinese Export Controls Still Causing Yttrium, Scandium Shortages
Chinese shipments of yttrium, one of the heavy rare earth elements subject to Chinese export licensing requirements, and scandium, another element typically classified as a rare earth element subject to such requirements, to U.S. companies have remained low, increasing shortages for some aerospace and semiconductor companies, Reuters reported on Feb. 25.
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