Countries with competing claims in the South China Sea are still adjusting to a landmark ruling on maritime boundaries in the region. The Permanent Court of Arbitration announced July 12 its decision to invalidate China's broad claims under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ruling in particular that the Scarborough Shoal has no islands and therefore no exclusive economic zone to claim. The decision marked a victory for the Philippines, for although Manila also counts the shoal as its own, Beijing occupies it. At the very least, the Philippines has managed to ensure that China cannot legally control the shoal and, by extension, has created an opening for other states lining the South China Sea to chip away at China's position under UNCLOS.
But since its victory, the Philippines has played its hand carefully. Manila knows its position is weak — China's military is vastly more powerful than its own. But the Philippines has gained an unprecedented (even if chiefly symbolic) win on the international stage. The ruling could cause significant headaches for China, and by conspicuously refraining from touting the ruling, Manila is incentivizing Beijing to offer compromise and accommodation. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, for example, has said he will not bring up the ruling at the September summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). By doing so, Manila can preserve its core interests and gain some concessions from China while continuing to cooperate with Japan, the United States and other outside powers. Within the context of this new dynamic, talk of an accord between Manila and Beijing has centered on one topic in particular: fishing.
The UNCLOS ruling specifically addressed the issue by ruling that China's moves to block Philippine vessels from fishing around the Scarborough Shoal since May 2012 were illegal. Initially, Beijing responded to the court's decision by doubling down. On Aug. 2, the Chinese Supreme People's Court gave a ruling of its own stating that authorities have the right to prosecute foreign fishermen caught in waters claimed by China. The topic came up several times in a meeting a week later between Chinese officials and Philippine special envoy and former President Fidel Ramos. Duterte then called on China on Aug. 23 to allow Philippine fishing vessels into the contested waters. On Aug. 29, China responded in kind: Ambassador Zhao Jianhua said Beijing would hold bilateral talks and consider allowing Philippine fishermen access to the Scarborough Shoal. Talks have not yet begun, and it is still unclear precisely what form joint access would take. An agreement, however, would help prevent short, sharp conflicts over fishing and could offer a model for cooperation elsewhere in the South China Sea.
