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AssessmentsDec 18, 2025 | 19:33 GMT
A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.
The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West
A spate of recent Islamic State-linked terror incidents illustrates the group's resilience and continuing ability to inspire supporters across the globe, as growing branches in certain countries may develop both a greater intent and capability to direct mass casualty attacks in the West in the coming years. Over the past week, authorities worldwide have linked a series of successful attacks and thwarted plots to the Islamic State. On Dec. 14, a father and son pair inspired by the group killed 15 people and injured dozens more at a Hanukkah celebration in Sydney, Australia, the deadliest terror incident in the country's history. The day before, an Islamic State-affiliated gunman killed two U.S. servicemembers and a civilian interpreter in an ambush in Palmyra, Syria. Meanwhile, on Dec. 16, Polish police said they had arrested an individual suspected of planning an Islamic State-inspired attack on a Christmas market, days after German police said
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Mozambique
Republic of the Congo
Somalia
Syria
Afghanistan
Military & Security
Situation ReportDec 18, 2025 | 16:51 GMT
Turkey, Russia, U.S.: Erdogan Seeks To Return Russia's S-400 To Ease U.S. Sanctions
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow Turkey to return the S-400 missile defense system it received in 2019 and recoup billions of dollars spent on the initial purchase, potentially in deductions from Turkey's oil and natural gas import bills, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 17.
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United States
Turkey
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 18, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 18, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
AssessmentsDec 16, 2025 | 22:09 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty
Central Asia's strategic location between Russia, China and Europe will enhance its role in evolving Eurasian trade routes, but rival agendas, uneven financing, weak regional coordination, and governance and security risks will limit the region's rise as a true continental hub. Russia's war in Ukraine, persistent shocks to global supply chains and China's recalibrated Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have positioned Central Asia from a peripheral transit zone into a central area of great power competition. The region's five states -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- now sit at the junction of competing east-west and north-south corridors, where the build-out of transport and energy infrastructure creates strategic opportunities but also heightens exposure to geopolitical fragmentation and external pressure. Despite this renewed external attention, Central Asian states' landlocked geography imposes some of the world's highest trade costs, making improved connectivity an economic imperative. Compounding this geographic challenge, long-standing institutional
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China
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 15, 2025 | 17:59 GMT
A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble.
Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro
EU governments have been looking to use immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine, which, despite concerns by critics, is unlikely to have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone and euro financial assets. But should intra-EU agreement on how to do so remain elusive, European governments will have the option of providing financial support on a bilateral basis. During a summit on Dec. 18-19, the governments of the European Union will discuss ways to continue providing funding to Ukraine, which remains highly dependent on foreign financial support to continue the war against Russia. With much-reduced support from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, European governments are faced with great pressure to provide funding. Increasing domestic spending pressures as well as large fiscal deficits and high debt ratios have led them to look for ways to lend support without incurring further liabilities. EU governments are quite capable of
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United States
Europe
Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsDec 12, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024.
Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union
The Tunisian government's likely passage of a contentious finance bill will elevate tensions with the country's largest labor union, opening the door to a potential expansion of strike and protest activity, but reforms to increase production will likely improve the manufacturing and agricultural export sectors. On Dec. 10, Tunisia's 2026 Finance Bill advanced from the National Assembly to President Kais Saied, who is expected to approve it; upon approval, the measure will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The bill combines the annual budget with other financial measures, including wage and pension increases, provisions to improve fiscal consolidation (including a wealth tax to expand Tunisia's tax base), value-added tax reductions on manufacturing and some agricultural production inputs, and reforms to drone laws to boost agricultural profitability. One particularly contentious provision is Article 15, which approves wage increases for public and private sector workers at a reported average annual rate of
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Tunisia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportDec 12, 2025 | 16:44 GMT
Global: U.S., Five Others To Sign Pax Silica Declaration in a Bid To Counter China in CRMs, AI
The U.S. Trump administration plans to sign the Pax Silica Declaration with Australia, Japan, Israel, Singapore and South Korea on Dec. 12, forming a coalition designed to counter China's control of critical minerals and its growing clout in the artificial intelligence sector, Politico reported the same day.
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United States
Israel
Australia
China
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 22:16 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.
Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026
While Ethiopia is unlikely to launch a large-scale invasion of Eritrea in 2026, worsening tensions over sea access and Asmara's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government increase the likelihood of intensifying proxy clashes along the border that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation. On Oct. 28, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for international mediation regarding Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, stressing that maritime access was a "matter of survival" for Ethiopia. This came after Abiy claimed in early September that it was only a "matter of time" before Ethiopia regained access to the Eritrean port of Assab, arguing that the loss of the port following Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia in 1993 had been a "mistake." These comments came as Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, in early October of entering a pact to "wage
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 15:57 GMT
Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.
The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture
Israel's upcoming deployment of a new laser aerial defense system will reduce threats from short-range rockets and drones while reinforcing a long-term push for defense self-sufficiency and expanding opportunities for international defense production partnerships and exports. Israel is set to deploy the Iron Beam laser defense system by the end of the year, following the completion of operational testing of the system in September. The defense ministry and primary Israeli military contractors Elbit and Rafael have confirmed that the first batteries are scheduled for transfer to the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, on Dec. 30. Initial operational use of the system is expected in 2026. If implemented as scheduled, the deployment will make Israel the first country to field a combat-ready laser air defense system. The defense ministry reported that the 100-kilowatt system successfully intercepted missiles, mortar rounds, UAVs and other aerial threats during weeks of testing, demonstrating the ability
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United States
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Yemen
Economics
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 11, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
Situation ReportDec 9, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
EU: EU Negotiators Reach Deal To Scale Back Sustainability Requirements
Negotiators from the European Council and the European Parliament reached a provisional agreement on Dec. 9 to delay and scale back the European Union's sustainability reporting and due diligence framework, including significant reductions to the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, the European Council said in a press release.
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Europe
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Situation ReportDec 9, 2025 | 20:18 GMT
China, U.S.: China Looks To Restrict H200 Chips After Trump Approves Their Export
Chinese officials are discussing ways to limit domestic companies' access to U.S. manufacturer Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips, which are a generation behind Nvidia's Blackwell family of chips but still outstrip the most advanced Chinese-produced chips in memory bandwidth and processing performance, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 9.
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United States
China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
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