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Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair.
Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War
Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on
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United States
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 19:32 GMT
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024.
In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church
In Armenia, an escalating dispute between the prime minister and the country's national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan, raising the risk of another military confrontation. On June 25, Armenian authorities arrested Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and 13 other people on charges of plotting violence and other destabilizing actions to overthrow the government and seize power. According to the country's top criminal investigative agency, the conspirators had recruited more than 1,000 people since the start of the year, and investigators allegedly have already recovered firearms, ammunition and other items linking them to the plot. The arrests, which the archbishop's supporters have called politically motivated, are the most severe developments in an escalating feud between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church, one of the most influential institutions in the country. The standoff began in late May,
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportJun 24, 2025 | 20:09 GMT
Iran: U.S. Intelligence Assessment Says Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Had Modest Impact
An early assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency suggested that most of Iran's nuclear capabilities remained intact after the June 22 U.S. strike on three Iranian facilities and that the strike likely only set back Iran's program by months, CNN reported on June 24, citing four sources familiar with the assessment.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference at a hotel in Paris on June 24, 2025.
In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability
The collapse of France's pension reform negotiations could undermine Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's fragile minority government, increasing the risk of no-confidence votes, budgetary deadlock and potentially early elections at a time when the country is facing mounting pressure to rein in its growing deficit. On June 23, months-long negotiations between French unions and employer groups over potential amendments to President Emmanuel Macron's contested 2023 pensions reform collapsed. The talks focused on revising the law that gradually raises France's retirement age from 62 to 64, as part of a last-ditch attempt to ease tensions between the government, trade unions and opposition parties. Prime Minister Bayrou had tasked unions and employers with identifying compromise measures, including earlier retirement options for physically demanding jobs and greater recognition of maternity leave. However, employer groups reportedly opposed any changes that they argued would impose new costs and could threaten the financial balance of the system.
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France
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 16:48 GMT
Iranian missiles aimed at targets in Israel pass through the sky over the West Bank on June 17, 2025.
The Iran-Israel Ceasefire Will Remain Fragile Amid Unresolved Disputes
Even if a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds in the coming weeks and months, a series of unresolved issues leaves the door open to violations that will likely strain and could collapse the truce in the future. On June 23, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire that was scheduled to enter into effect early on June 24. Though the Iranian foreign minister initially denied agreeing to the ceasefire, saying it would only stop attacking Israel once Israeli attacks stopped, Iranian state media later claimed that the ceasefire was "imposed on the enemy." Israel similarly agreed to stop attacks on Iran so long as Iran halted its own attacks. Ahead of the ceasefire deadline, Iran launched missiles that killed three Israelis and injured several more. Israel also launched a series of attacks against different areas in Tehran, in
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United States
Iran
Israel
Military & Security
Situation ReportJun 24, 2025 | 15:23 GMT
Uganda: President Museveni to Run For a Seventh Term
Electoral Commission Chief of Uganda's ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party Tanga Odoi said that President Yoweri Museveni would pick up expression of interest papers to retain his position as chairperson of the NRM Central Executive Committee and to run as the party's presidential candidate in Uganda's January 2026 general election on June 28, Monitor reported June 23.
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Uganda
Politics
SnapshotsJun 23, 2025 | 21:12 GMT
A photo taken on June 23, 2025, shows the remnants of an Iranian missile intercepted over Qatar.
With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions
Absent further retaliation, Iran's seemingly limited response to the June 22 U.S. attacks enables a path toward de-escalation between the two sides, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict. On 23 June, Iran launched multiple missiles against Qatar's al-Udeid Air Base, which houses the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. Qatar released a statement condemning Iran's attack on the airbase, which had been partially evacuated as a precaution, and noted that Qatari air defenses intercepted the Iranian missiles, which caused no casualties. According to Iranian state-backed media, Iran's Supreme National Security Council claimed that the attack "obliterated" the al-Udeid Air Base -- the same word U.S. President Donald Trump used to describe the damage the recent U.S. strikes did to Iran's nuclear facilities -- and that Iran deployed the same number of missiles as the number of bombs (14)
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United States
Iran
Israel
Qatar
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 22, 2025 | 15:35 GMT
A Northrop B-2 Spirit on July 4, 2020, near the White House in Washington. 
Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation
Iran will likely try to calibrate its kinetic response to the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities to avoid significant escalation, but its response will open the door to further attacks that include Iran targeting regional oil and gas production. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 22 said that the United States had "blown up" diplomacy with its decision to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities earlier that day, and that "we have to respond" following what has been more than a week of Israeli attacks that began on June 13. When asked by a reporter about potential retaliation options, Araghchi would not rule out an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or harass ships in the strait, or an exit from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In response to the attacks, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a June 22 statement that the United States had put
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United States
Iran
Israel
Energy
Military & Security
Situation ReportJun 20, 2025 | 19:12 GMT
Europe, Iran: E3, Iranian Foreign Ministers Meet in Geneva
The EU foreign policy chief and the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France and Germany -- the so-called E3 grouping of signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal -- met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva, Switzerland, to encourage Iran to negotiate with the United States for a new nuclear deal, Reuters reported on June 20.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Europe
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 21:22 GMT
A group of armed Israeli soldiers stands in a narrow alley of the Old City of Hebron, West Bank, on May 31, 2025.
To Thwart Militant Attacks, Israel Cracks Down on the West Bank
Israel's lockdown in the West Bank will likely reduce the threat of a major terror attack in the near term, but it will also worsen Palestinians' grievances and sustain the risk of a larger uprising in the territory, while potentially fueling tensions within Israel's coalition government. Following Israel's June 13 attacks on Iran, Israel has implemented a lockdown throughout the West Bank. The Israeli army has restricted movement from smaller towns and villages to larger cities -- such as Nablus, Qalqiya, and Tulkarem -- by closing some city entrances, blocking certain roads, and imposing more checkpoints. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has also reportedly displaced Palestinian families in parts of the West Bank, seizing their homes due to their strategic military locations. In addition, the IDF has closed all entrances to Jericho and Bethlehem, and has blocked the King Hussein Bridge connecting the West Bank to Jordan. Furthermore, in East
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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