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Situation ReportOct 27, 2025 | 17:32 GMT
U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam: Washington Secures Critical Minerals, Market Access
The United States and Malaysia signed a reciprocal trade pact that leaves in place Washington's 19% tariff rate on Malaysian goods but grants zero-tariff carveouts for more than 1,700 Malaysian export categories and "favorable consideration on semiconductors," while securing Malaysian commitments not to restrict exports of critical minerals (including rare earths) and magnets, The Straits Times reported on Oct. 26.
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United States
Malaysia
Vietnam
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 27, 2025 | 15:07 GMT
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.
Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in Gaza in an effort to reduce the likelihood of being unseated by a right-wing anti-Netanyahu coalition led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party has seen an uptick in support following the Oct. 8 announcement of the first phase of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire and the Oct. 13 release of all 20 remaining living hostages. Prior to the ceasefire agreement, most polls conducted in the second half of September showed Likud winning around 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset if parliamentary elections due by October 2026 were conducted now. More recently, according to a poll published on Oct. 16 by Zman Yisrael, Likud would win 34 seats and its likely coalition partners a further 25, bringing the total to 59 -- just short of the 61 needed to
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 24, 2025 | 16:19 GMT
A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.
Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks
Turkey will likely initially use diplomatic and political pressure to weaken Northern Cyprus's attempts to restart what are likely to be difficult federalization talks with the Republic of Cyprus. Should they nonetheless advance, an escalation to economic pressure could instead strengthen Northern Cyprus's drive for federalization in the coming years. On Oct. 19, the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus held a presidential election that resulted in the victory of Republican Turkish Party (CTP) head Tufan Erhurman, a center-left candidate who supports resuming federalization talks with the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus after a prolonged suspension of negotiations. Erhurman secured 62% of the vote, achieving a decisive victory over incumbent Ersin Tartar of the National Unity Party (UBP), who had rejected federalization talks and advocated for a two-state solution to the decades-long division of the island between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Two days after the vote, Devlet Bahceli, a Nationalist
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Turkey
Cyprus
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 24, 2025 | 15:31 GMT
Kenyan forces stand next to the coffin of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during a funeral mass at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on October 19, 2025 in Bondo, Kenya.
What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics
The death of former Kenyan Prime Minister and opposition leader Raila Odinga risks fragmenting his political party, creating space for other opposition figures to challenge the incumbent president. Odinga, widely known as the "people's president" despite never serving in the role, died on Oct. 15 after reportedly suffering a stroke while receiving medical treatment in India. The 80-year-old, a central figure in Kenyan politics for decades, was granted a state funeral and seven days of national mourning. However, his death quickly sparked unrest across the country from the capital, Nairobi to his home region of Western Kenya. In the intervening days four people were killed when security forces used live fire to disperse crowds at the Kasarani stadium where Odinga's body was to be publicly viewed. On Oct. 16, Odinga's supporters also stormed airport grounds, breaching security and forcing authorities to temporarily halt operations. Some mourners denounced President William Ruto,
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Kenya
Economics
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025.
U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag
The United States will likely use sanctions relief leverage to de-escalate tensions between Syria and Israel and support Syria's economic and reconstruction recovery efforts, while continuing to provide sufficient, albeit diminished, support to the Kurds, enabling them to slow-walk integration with the Syrian government. In recent weeks, the U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, has met with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and visited the Kurdish-majority northeastern city of al-Hasaka to discuss mechanisms to facilitate the integration of the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the Syrian central government. In March, the SDF and al-Sharaa reached an agreement to integrate SDF institutions into the state, but little progress has been made after separate outbreaks of violence between government forces and minority Alawites and Druze communities led the SDF to seek to maintain their arms out of concern for similar clashes with government forces. However, following Barrack's visits and
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United States
Israel
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 15:45 GMT
Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.
The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections
Argentina's Oct. 26 midterms will determine whether the government can advance its pro-market reforms or face a sharp decline in governability and investor confidence. A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant devaluation of the peso, renewed capital controls and heightened political instability. Argentina will hold legislative elections on Oct. 26 to pick 127 out of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate. The vote comes two years after libertarian President Javier Milei was elected and at a time when his administration faces significant challenges to pass legislation because of its minority position in the Argentine Congress. The government and its allies in Congress have also struggled to prevent the opposition from passing legislation and overturning a series of presidential vetoes in recent months that restricted funds for provinces, education, healthcare and disaster relief. The pushback
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Argentina
Economics
Politics
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