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SnapshotsJun 22, 2025 | 15:35 GMT
A Northrop B-2 Spirit on July 4, 2020, near the White House in Washington. 
Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation
Iran will likely try to calibrate its kinetic response to the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities to avoid significant escalation, but its response will open the door to further attacks that include Iran targeting regional oil and gas production. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 22 said that the United States had "blown up" diplomacy with its decision to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities earlier that day, and that "we have to respond" following what has been more than a week of Israeli attacks that began on June 13. When asked by a reporter about potential retaliation options, Araghchi would not rule out an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or harass ships in the strait, or an exit from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In response to the attacks, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a June 22 statement that the United States had put
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United States
Iran
Israel
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022.
What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out?
The Africa Corps' reported takeover of remaining Wagner Group units in Mali indicates that Russia will likely sustain bilateral defense cooperation over the coming year, but Moscow's military support is unlikely to prevent Mali's security environment from deteriorating further, portending rising threats to the capital, Bamako. On June 6, Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group announced on its Telegram channel that it would exit Mali, where it was first deployed in December 2021 to support counterterrorism operations and provide personal protection for the country's Russia-friendly junta. The same day, the Africa Corps -- another Russian paramilitary organization that is closely backed by Russia's Ministry of Defense -- announced that it would remain in the country. Thereafter, diplomatic sources quoted by Agence France-Presse said on June 8 that the Africa Corps had taken over the Wagner Group's remaining military units in Mali. Amid the reorganization of Russia's military presence in the country, Mali's
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Mali
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJun 16, 2025 | 16:06 GMT
Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.
Assessing the Trajectory of the Iran-Israel War
With both sides seemingly unwilling to negotiate, the Iran-Israel conflict is escalating into a high-intensity but limited war that increases the risk of regional spillover and/or Iran's withdrawal from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, elevating the risk of U.S. military involvement. Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles toward central and northern Israel early on June 16, while Israel continued its widespread attacks on Iran, including against its capital, Tehran. Since June 13, Israeli attacks in Iran have killed at least 224 people, according to the Iranian government, while Iranian attacks in Israel have killed at least 23 people and injured more than 400 others, according to the Israeli government. Iran's June 16 ballistic missile attack impacted several locations in Israel, including Haifa, Petah Tikva and Tel Aviv, where an Iranian missile slightly damaged the U.S. Consulate. Meanwhile, Israel reported that it hit more than 80 targets in Tehran on June 15,
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United States
Iran
Israel
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 13, 2025 | 09:21 GMT
A view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
What To Expect as Israel Goes After Iran's Nuclear Program, Military Capabilities
Israel's unprecedented attacks on Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure mark a deliberate escalation aimed at degrading both Iran's nuclear capabilities and leadership command, likely triggering sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in the near term. In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched extensive attacks on Iranian targets, involving around 200 aircraft and 330 munitions hitting approximately 100 sites across Iran. The offensive, announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a multiday operation to neutralize what he called an existential threat, focused on critical nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz, Khondab, Khorramabad, and Tehran-area enrichment facilities. Strikes also targeted military assets -- such as missile factories, air-defense systems and command centers -- as well as residential neighborhoods housing senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders. Among those reportedly killed were IRGC Commander-in-Chief Gen. Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, and prominent
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Iran
Israel
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 12, 2025 | 16:32 GMT
An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.
As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Flounder, Israel Inches Toward Escalation
As U.S.-Iran nuclear talks flounder, Israel is growing increasingly likely to strike Iran's nuclear program, which would likely lead Iran to target Israeli and potentially U.S. assets in the region, as well as weaken Iran's reformist-moderate presidency and empower its hard-liners. The United States' self-imposed 60-day deadline for negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran ended on June 12 without a deal, and the next round of indirect negotiations, currently scheduled for June 15 in Oman, are reportedly in jeopardy. The State Department announced on June 11 that it ordered all nonessential personnel to depart Iraq, and U.S. Central Command said the U.S. defense secretary had "authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations" in the Middle East. The drawdown in the U.S. presence is due to growing U.S. intelligence that Israel may soon strike Iran's nuclear program with or without U.S. approval. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry and atomic energy
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Lebanon
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 9, 2025 | 22:17 GMT
A stock image showing industrial magnet parts.
In Trade War With U.S., China Finds a Pressure Point With Magnet Restrictions
Although China appears to be expediting the approval process of rare earth shipments, Beijing will likely continue to wield restrictions on such exports in the face of growing U.S. technology and trade restrictions, sustaining a high risk of future supply chain disruptions, particularly for automakers. U.S.-China trade talks in London focusing on export controls began on June 9 amid a growing supply chain crisis for U.S. and other Western automakers following China's April 4 introduction of a new export licensing regime covering seven rare earth elements. China introduced those measures in response to sweeping new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that the United States announced on April 2. Since then, China has approved far fewer exports of these rare earth magnets, which have aerospace and defense applications due to their high heat tolerance, but are also widely used in vehicles. This has led to global shortages due to China's market
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United States
China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
AssessmentsJun 2, 2025 | 14:36 GMT
Service members of Ukraine's 13th Khartia Brigade load a Vampire drone with food and ammunition supplies to be delivered to the infantry at the frontline on March 7, 2025, in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine.
The Implications of Ukraine's Audacious Attacks on Russia
A series of Ukrainian attacks across Russia indicates a more brazen and frequent pace of asymmetric operations that could pressure the Kremlin to be flexible in ongoing talks but also risk blowback that at least temporarily derails diplomatic efforts to wind down the war in Ukraine. On June 1, Ukraine's main civilian intelligence agency, the SBU, carried out a major operation, reportedly a year-and-a-half in the making, in which it activated more than 100 quadcopter drones it had smuggled into Russian territory to reportedly hit 41 long-range strike aircraft at four airfields across the country. The attack came after Ukrainian media reported on May 30 that the country's military intelligence service, the HUR, allegedly triggered two explosions targeting a Russian military site near the eastern city of Vladivostok -- which would be the deepest inside Russia that Ukrainian saboteurs have attacked -- at a location often used for Russian military
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsApr 14, 2025 | 20:27 GMT
Mock drones and missiles are displayed at an exhibition on Nov. 13, 2024, in Sanaa, Yemen.
To Placate the U.S., Iran Temporarily Scales Back Its Regional Proxy Strategy
In response to U.S. threats, Iran and its allied militias in Iraq are taking a conciliatory approach to avoid winding up in Washington's crosshairs. But while this will temporarily mitigate the risk of a regional escalation as Tehran engages in nuclear talks with the Trump administration, Iran remains unlikely to fully abandon its proxy strategy. Since the United States began launching airstrikes on Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis in mid-March, there have been reports that Iran and its proxies in Iraq are taking steps to reduce the likelihood of also becoming a target of U.S. attacks. On April 3, The Telegraph reported that Iran had ordered its military personnel to leave Yemen, with an Iranian official saying that the decision was designed to mitigate risks of direct confrontation with the United States if an Iranian military member, such as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, was killed in the ongoing U.S.
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 8, 2025 | 17:06 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Security Threats in the Strait of Hormuz and Likely Strategies
Rising tensions between Israel, the United States and Iran are increasing the likelihood of strikes on Iranian territory that could trigger an Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a development that would increase oil prices, generate trade disruptions and, over time, could incentivize Gulf states to find alternative oil export routes. For years, the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and measuring approximately 35 to 60 miles (55 to 95 kilometers) in width -- has remained a key geopolitical flashpoint between the United States and Iran, owing to its strategic importance for global trade and energy transit. At least 30% of the world's sea-traded crude oil passes through the strait daily. Given its importance for global oil markets, in the past decades, Iran has repeatedly threatened to blockade the strait as part of its broader rivalry with the
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United States
Iran
Israel
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
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