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AssessmentsMay 30, 2025 | 18:40 GMT
M23 fighters are seen at the main border crossing between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda in Goma on March 1, 2025.
U.S. Mediation Brings Congo and Rwanda Closer to a Peace Deal
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda will likely sign a peace agreement in the coming months, along with bilateral mineral deals with the United States, but even if both sides reach a peace deal, its implementation would face major challenges, thus sustaining the prospect of a new military escalation in eastern Congo. On May 21, Senior Adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, Massad Boulos, said that the United States was in "the process of finalizing" a draft peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. This came after the foreign ministers of the two neighboring African countries signed a U.S.-mediated Declaration of Principles on April 25 in which Congo and Rwanda made non-binding pledges to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs, tackle non-state armed groups and make progress toward a draft peace agreement. Both countries also committed to a "phased regional integration framework" that would
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
Rwanda
United States
Military & Security
Situation ReportMay 30, 2025 | 16:14 GMT
Israel, Gaza: Hamas Rejects U.S. Ceasefire Proposal But Does Not Abandon Talks
The Palestinian militant group Hamas said the current U.S.-led proposal to pause the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza "fails to meet any of the just and legitimate demands of our people" but added that the group would continue to "study" the proposal without rejecting it, Reuters reported on May 30.
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMay 29, 2025 | 16:18 GMT
Romania: Mainstream Parties Agree To Reduce Large Fiscal Deficit
During consultations on May 28, Romanian President Nicusor Dan and representatives from the three parties in government (the Social Democratic Party, the National Liberal Party and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians) agreed to create a technical working group to explore ways to reduce Romania's fiscal deficit, Romania Insider reported the next day.
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Romania
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsMay 29, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: May 29, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
AssessmentsMay 28, 2025 | 19:03 GMT
Members of the National Association of Magistrates and District Judges hold a massive Mexican flag during a protest in Mexico City, Mexico, on Sept. 11, 2024, after Mexico's Senate approved controversial judicial reforms.
What's at Stake in Mexico's First-Ever Judicial Elections
Candidates aligned with Mexico's ruling Morena party will likely perform strongly in upcoming judicial elections, which will undermine checks and balances and create regulatory uncertainty for businesses over the long term, with the new judiciary also likely to be more susceptible to criminal influence. On June 1, Mexico will hold its first-ever judicial elections, with 881 positions up for a vote, including all nine members of the country's Supreme Court, two out of the seven members of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (which rules on election-related legal issues), 15 Magistrates of the Regional Chambers of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, and five Members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal. Voters will also choose 464 circuit court magistrates and 386 district court judges. The elections follow the adoption of a constitutional reform in September 2024 that made all judges democratically elected, while also establishing a new judicial oversight
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Mexico
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 27, 2025 | 20:09 GMT
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto speaks during an economic event in Jakarta on April 8, 2025.
How Subianto Is Making His Mark on Indonesian Politics
In his first seven months in office, Indonesia's president has combined populism with austerity and a security-first approach to governance, while courting major powers and international forums. However, trade risks and fiscal strain could lead to deeper spending cuts or drive expanded protests if growth stalls or security tensions escalate. Since taking office in October 2024, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has pursued a mix of welfare populism with security-minded governance. For example, upon taking office, Subianto unveiled his flagship social initiative, the Free Nutritious Meals Program, on which he campaigned. The program seeks to provide meals to 89 million schoolchildren and pregnant women across Indonesia's vast and largely insufficiently connected archipelago. The program is transforming fiscal planning, as it is partially funded by a presidential directive that slashed approximately $20 billion from other ministerial and regional budgets and thus imposed a level of austerity in other areas, such as education
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Indonesia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 22, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: May 22, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
SnapshotsMay 21, 2025 | 21:57 GMT
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat during a Liberal Party election night event on May 3, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia.
Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor
In Australia, the collapse of the conservative coalition between the Liberal Party and National Party will fracture opposition to the ruling Labor Party's agenda, granting the government freer rein to implement energy transition, industrial investment and fiscal reform policies. On May 20, Australia's main opposition group, the center-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNC), formally split amid deepening urban-rural divides over energy and economic direction, marking the end of one of the longest-standing political partnerships in the country's history. The collapse came after negotiations on a renewed coalition agreement broke down over major policy divisions, especially around energy, with the National Party demanding an aggressive push for nuclear power and fossil fuel development, while the Liberal Party leaned toward a more moderate, suburban-friendly climate and emissions policy. Other points of contention included rural subsidies, carbon market regulation, and transmission line infrastructure for renewables, all of which revealed a deepening philosophical divergence between the
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Australia
Politics
AssessmentsMay 21, 2025 | 19:41 GMT
Supporters of Kim Moon Soo, the opposition candidate running in South Korea's June 3 presidential election, react during a campaign event in Seoul on May 19, 2025.
South Korea's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
South Korea will hold an early presidential election on June 3 following the April impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his martial law declaration in December. The ruling People Power Party, or PPP, will fight to hold the presidency despite the martial law legacy left by Yoon, while the opposition Democratic Party, or DPK, will seek to take advantage of the early election and low support for the PPP, driven by Yoon's martial law gambit, to assume the presidency for the first time since 2022. The winner will have a five-year term and will not be eligible for reelection. Due to Yoon's impeachment, the new president will take office immediately after the election. 
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South Korea
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 20, 2025 | 20:56 GMT
A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta.
Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices?
Nigeria will likely avoid major fiscal slippage and a liquidity crisis in 2025 if Brent oil prices stay around $60-65 a barrel, but declining oil prices risk exacerbating socioeconomic grievances by adding upward pressure on already high inflation, which would heighten protest risks and facilitate recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups. On May 12, the World Bank warned that Nigeria's 2025 budget relied on "overly ambitious revenue assumptions" that could result in a higher-than-anticipated fiscal deficit. These warnings come as global oil prices have steeply declined since the start of April following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of "reciprocal" U.S. tariffs, which fuelled concerns of a slowdown in global economic growth. Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on those tariffs enabled prices to rebound in mid-April, but the price of Brent -- the global benchmark for oil -- once again slipped below $60 a barrel in early May following OPEC+'s
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Nigeria
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 19, 2025 | 19:19 GMT
Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan hold the movement's flag during a demonstration in the capital, Amman, on Nov. 28, 2014.
In Jordan, a Ban Pushes the Muslim Brotherhood Underground
Jordan's ban on the Muslim Brotherhood is unlikely to cause broader political unrest as long as the group's political wing remains intact, but Iranian support for the Muslim Brotherhood's militant factions and worsening economic grievances will maintain the threat of social unrest and militancy. Just over a month has passed since Jordanian security forces announced on April 15 that they had arrested 16 individuals linked to the Muslim Brotherhood after thwarting a plot by the organization to attack various domestic targets. A week later, Jordan banned the Muslim Brotherhood, seized the group's assets and prohibited individuals from promoting its political Islamist ideology. Since then, however, Jordan's crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood has largely spared the Islamic Action Front, or IAF, which is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and has the largest number of seats in Jordan's National Assembly. Against this backdrop and amid U.S. concerns about instability in
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United States
Iran
Jordan
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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