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AssessmentsNov 13, 2025 | 16:18 GMT
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Nov. 12 at 10 Downing Street in central London.
Painful Upcoming Budget Likely To Amplify Starmer's Leadership Woes
Growing internal divisions within the United Kingdom's ruling Labour party increase the likelihood of Prime Minister Keir Starmer facing a leadership challenge after the unveiling of a budget on Nov. 26 or a defeat in the May 2026 local elections, though any successor would likely maintain broad policy continuity despite some risk of increased fiscal profligacy and limited financial turbulence under a more left-leaning prime minister.
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United Kingdom
Politics
AssessmentsSep 15, 2025 | 21:16 GMT
From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations
In the United States, rollbacks of federal efforts to counter foreign influence, coupled with weakening private sector content moderation, will more easily facilitate nation-state online influence operations. These operations will enable a greater proliferation of disinformation designed to stoke societal tensions, diminish faith in democratic institutions and influence public sentiments and government policy. On Aug. 20, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced plans to further slash staff for her office, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the country's intelligence community. In conjunction with previous cuts announced in February, the latest cuts will reduce the office's personnel by nearly 50%. The most recent cuts center on consolidating teams focused on countering cyber threats and influence operations, and they include shrinking the Foreign Malign Influence Center, which serves as the primary organization for integrating intelligence on foreign influence operations, including efforts to influence U.S. elections. While
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United States
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportJul 11, 2025 | 18:09 GMT
South Africa: ANC-DA Tensions Pose New Risks to Budget and Government Stability
John Steenhuisen, the leader of the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) -- the second largest party in South Africa's ruling coalition behind the left-leaning African National Congress (ANC) -- insisted that his party would not support the budgets for the Department of Higher Education and the Department of Human Settlements, despite warnings from the senior legal adviser to South Africa's parliament that the 2025 budget could not be approved unless every single departmental budget was approved, Daily Maverick reported July 10.
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South Africa
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsJun 9, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
National Guard troops stand in front of a government building during a protest in Los Angeles, California, on June 8, 2025.
By Deploying the National Guard to LA, Trump Doubles Down on His Mass Deportation Efforts
The White House's unilateral federalization of the National Guard reflects an increasingly aggressive mass deportation effort amid escalating pushback that will result in a high risk of future unrest and legal standoffs, as well as add to existing economic uncertainty. On June 7, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order unilaterally invoking a federal statute to temporarily mobilize 2,000 members of the National Guard to protect federal property and officers from violence against Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, which is conducting operations to arrest unauthorized migrants around the Los Angeles area. Trump's order came after two days of protests in the metropolitan area that began peacefully but turned unruly as protesters confronted heavily armed officers from ICE and, eventually, the Los Angeles Police Department and supporting federal agencies, such as the FBI. Officers used a variety of riot-control measures, including rubber bullets, flash-bang grenades and tear gas, while
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United States
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
On GeopoliticsJun 5, 2025 | 21:47 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.
Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?
Much has been made of U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tour of the Middle East, where he slammed the interventionist policies of his predecessors. "In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built. And the interventionalists [sic] were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand," he said in Riyadh, about the widely panned Iraq invasion of 2003. Some have hailed Trump's remarks as signaling the end of American interventionism in the Middle East, or at least the beginning of the end, as the United States retrenches. Trump's newly appointed ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, even went so far as to say, "The era of Western interference is over. The future belongs to regional solutions, but partnerships, and a diplomacy grounded in respect." Doveish though this all sounds, the reality is that the United States remains poised to use its many tools to reshape
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United States
Iraq
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 4, 2025 | 14:04 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: Turkey's Export Strategy Hinges on Neutrality
Turkey's trade diversification strategy will continue to lean toward Europe and the United States even as Ankara uses its middle power, neutral position to build out trade ties with growing non-aligned powers. In recent years, Turkey's trade strategy has hinged on sourcing affordable imports for its manufacturing sector and finding appropriate markets for its exports, while also leveraging its geography to become a trade hub between Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and growing into a more advanced manufacturing center. But Turkey has deeper ambitions as part of its economic development program, such as its Distant Countries Strategy, a plan to expand its exports to 18 more geographically distant trade partners like the United States, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, India and China. Against the backdrop of U.S. tariffs that are restructuring ties between the United States and the rest of the world, Turkey's role as a manufacturing hub makes
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United States
Turkey
China
Europe
Russia
India
Pakistan
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
On GeopoliticsApr 7, 2025 | 19:35 GMT
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.
The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy
As I argued in a column published last month, the Trump administration's tariff strategy appears to be aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing -- and specifically jobs in the sector, which has fallen from a peak of employing about 19.5 million Americans in 1979 to 12.7 million in February 2025. However, Trump's tariffs will likely ultimately fail to accomplish these goals due to myriad constraints, and could fundamentally undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come if they remain in place in their current form.
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United States
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 19, 2025 | 18:53 GMT
The U.K. flag is flown near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., to honor the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, on Sept. 9, 2022.
Trump's Tariff Threats Will Complicate the U.K.'s Trade Balancing Act
While the United Kingdom will likely avoid major U.S. tariffs, concessions to Trump could further complicate the ruling Labour Party's efforts to restore trade ties with the European Union and expand economic engagement with China. The U.K. government remains confident that it can avoid a trade war with the United States, with high-ranking officials, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer, recently saying that good relations between London and Washington will prevent an escalation of trade disputes. On Feb. 11, the U.K. government said that London would not retaliate immediately to the White House's Feb. 10 decision to implement tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from around the world, including the United Kingdom. And while U.S. President Donald Trump has already imposed or threatened tariffs against several U.S. key trading partners, he hinted at a possible exception for the United Kingdom, emphasizing his positive relationship with Starmer.
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United States
China
Europe
United Kingdom
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
On GeopoliticsDec 23, 2024 | 17:18 GMT
Previewing Trump's Tech Policies
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policy preferences in many areas, such as trade and immigration, are generally clear. But there is much more uncertainty about his stance on various tech issues, including the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices. However, recent statements made by both Trump and other prominent Republican lawmakers, along with Trump's newfound close relationship with mogul Elon Musk, do offer some insight into how his next administration will approach these issues once it takes office on Jan. 20.
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United States
China
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
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