AssessmentsJan 2, 2026 | 22:37 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
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On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026 | 20:15 GMT
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast
At a time when forecasts are plentiful and certainty is often overstated, we strongly believe that publishing a transparent record of our accuracy is essential. This annual scorecard is a candid internal assessment of what we forecast accurately, where we missed the mark and where events unfolded in ways that challenged our underlying assumptions. This exercise is not performative. While we will celebrate our successes and further critique our missteps, the goal of this assessment is to sharpen our analytic discipline and inform the forecast for the year ahead.
READ MORESituation ReportJan 2, 2026 | 18:54 GMT
Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State
The leader of Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced the "beginning of a two-year transition phase" toward establishing an independent southern Yemeni state, and called for a referendum vote on self-determination, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 2.
READ MORESituation ReportJan 2, 2026 | 17:24 GMT
Asia-Pacific: The Philippines Assumes 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship
The chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was passed from Malaysia to the Philippines on Jan. 1, The Star reported. As 2026 chair, Manila will set the bloc's agenda for the year.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 31, 2025 | 17:37 GMT
Sudan: RSF Makes Further Gains in Kordofan as SAF Reinforces Positions in Blue Nile State
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and allied groups seized the strategic Al-Taqatu' junction and neighboring localities between the towns of Kadugli and Dilling in the central South Kordofan state from the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, the Sudan Tribune reported on Dec. 30.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 31, 2025 | 15:06 GMT
2025: A Geopolitical Review
It is tradition to look back on the year at the end of December, to take stock of where we were, and where we are now. In part, this is an attempt to put what seems like a volatile and ever-changing world into some sort of order, to search for patterns, to make sense of the past. But the main reason isn't to indulge in backcasting -- it is to look into the future, to see how the trends and events of the past 12 months fit into broader temporal patterns, and how these may give us insight into the flow of future history.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 30, 2025 | 16:56 GMT
China, Taiwan: Missile Tests, Drills in Japan's EEZ Amid Second Day of Military Exercises
China conducted the second and likely final day of its Justice Mission 2025 military drills around Taiwan, with Taiwan's defense ministry detecting 103 Chinese military aircraft, naval vessels, coast guard ships and amphibious vessels practicing raids and seizing ports, the South China Post reported on Dec. 30.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 30, 2025 | 16:26 GMT
Yemen: Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemeni Separatist Arms Shipment, Allegedly Supplied by UAE
Saudi Arabia said its national security constitutes a "red line" it will defend, hours after the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen struck vehicles and cargo in Hadramawt province that it said were supplied by a foreign military to southern separatist forces, Reuters reported on Dec. 30.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 29, 2025 | 20:24 GMT
Bangladesh: Student‑Led NCP Forms Electoral Alliance With Islamist Party Jamaat-e-Islami
Bangladesh's National Citizen Party, or NCP, a student-led group formed from the protest movement that ousted then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has forged an electoral alliance with the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami ahead of the February 2026 parliamentary elections, Reuters reported on Dec. 29.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 27, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 20:28 GMT
Pakistan: Khan's Enduring Influence, Focus on Protests Fueling Disagreements Among His Party's Leaders
A number of leaders within former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, have expressed frustration with Khan's refusal to negotiate with the government and his insistence that the party continue to protest and foment unrest amid its years-long standoff with authorities, Dawn reported on Dec. 26.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 17:48 GMT
North Korea: Kim Unveils Nuclear-Armed Submarine
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a factory working on production of the country's first nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, with photos showing the hull -- often one of the last stages of submarine construction -- fully intact, North Korean state media KCNA reported on Dec. 25.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 17:30 GMT
Yemen: Southern Transitional Council Accuses Saudi Arabia of Conducting Airstrikes
Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council accused Saudi Arabia of conducting airstrikes in Yemen's eastern Hadramawt province against the group, though Saudi Arabia did not confirm its involvement, AP reported on Dec. 26.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 16:24 GMT
Iraq: Kurdish Oil Export Deal Extended by Another Three Months
The federal government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government and oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq agreed to extend their three-month deal on oil exports by another three months, Rudaw reported on Dec. 25, citing an official from Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization, which handles international sales of KRG oil exports.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 16:22 GMT
Nigeria: Government Secures $1.2B in Funding for $12B Coastal Highway Megaproject
The United Arab Emirates will provide $1.2 billion to build a section of the proposed 700 kilometer (435 mile) Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Nigerian presidency said on Dec. 26.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 14:30 GMT
Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships
India's recent deals with New Zealand and Oman signal modest efforts to expand trade, investment and labor mobility, but various constraints will limit their impact as India struggles to reach larger agreements with partners like the United States, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council. On Dec. 22, India and New Zealand announced that, after nine months of negotiations, they had reached a free trade agreement (FTA) to reduce tariffs, improve labor mobility and expand trade of goods and services and investment. Signing is expected in the first half of 2026. The announcement of the FTA came days after India and Oman on Dec. 18 signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA).
READ MORESituation ReportDec 24, 2025 | 16:59 GMT
China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs
China said it will take "corresponding measures" in response to U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports from June 23, 2027, following the conclusion of a yearlong Section 301 probe into Beijing's chip policies, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 24.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsDec 24, 2025 | 15:08 GMT
The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence
Yemen's Southern Transitional Council (STC) -- backed by the United Arab Emirates -- has been on a blitz across the remnants of the central government's territory. A quick glance at a Yemeni Civil War map might suggest that a returned South Yemen may be on the cusp of reemergence after three decades within a unified state. But this path to de facto independence, while increasingly viable, is still far from a sure thing -- and for the STC to achieve it, the group must balance the pillars of Yemeni geopolitics with a care that suggests a long road still lies ahead.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 19:29 GMT
Armenia, Russia: Leaders Tout Transport Links Amid Regional Geopolitical Shifts
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian told Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, Russia, that substantial and positive changes are underway in the South Caucasus, citing resumed rail transit through Azerbaijan and a new agenda to restore key railway segments connecting Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenpress reported Dec. 22.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 16:35 GMT
Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing
Indonesian officials said Jakarta and Washington had resolved all substantive issues in bilateral tariff talks and planned to formally sign a trade agreement in late January during a visit by President Prabowo Subianto to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 23.
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