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AssessmentsAug 13, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A soldier keeps guard near the Nigerian border in Maradi, Niger.
Security in the Sahel Is Poised to Worsen
Recent political upheaval in Mali and the Ivory Coast threatens to compound intensifying instability in the Sahel and could spill over into other West African countries. Structural weaknesses of governments in the Sahel will leave them vulnerable to bouts of political unrest, insurgent and terrorist activity and other disruptions. As instability in the Sahel continues to grow, jihadist groups will further undermine the security of these countries and pose an increasing threat to coastal West African countries. These groups do not yet pose a threat of attacks outside the region.
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AssessmentsJul 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A photo shows one of the shallow water reservoirs in Simferopol, Crimea.
Russia's Quick Fixes Won't Solve Crimea's Water Woes
Russia's ongoing efforts to stretch Crimea's dwindling water supplies will only slightly delay the need to permanently fix the region's insufficient water resources by either funding expensive infrastructure overhauls, or convincing Ukraine to reopen the North Crimean Canal. The availability of fresh water in Crimea has progressively degraded following Russia's annexation in 2014. But with drought conditions worsening through the summer and beyond, the peninsula's dire water scarcity issues are now increasingly threatening industrial and agricultural consumption.
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SITUATION REPORTJul 21, 2020 | 20:52 GMT
Jordan: Prime Minister Hints at Support for Single Israeli-Palestinian State
Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Razzaz said in an interview that he would “look favorably” on a single democratic, binational state that guarantees equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians in the event that Israel’s planned annexation of territory in the West Bank renders a two-state solution impossible, AP reported July 21. 
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SnapshotsJun 12, 2020 | 20:38 GMT
The UAE Tries to Have It Both Ways in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
The United Arab Emirates is publicly signaling that it disapproves of Israel's impending annexations in the West Bank, but its strategy suggests it still wants to support the Palestinians without losing the ability to seek economic, technology, and security deals from Israel. In a June 12 op-ed published in Israeli media, UAE Ambassador to the United States Yousef Al Otaiba staked out the country's aspirations to simultaneously support both sides of the conflict by urging Israel not to carry out annexations that would prevent a future Palestinian state and harm budding relations. This comes shortly after a second plane from the Abu Dhabi-based national carrier Etihad Airways landed in Israel on June 9 to publicly deliver relief supplies in the Palestinian Territories as part of the United Nations World Food Program. 
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AssessmentsJun 7, 2020 | 19:41 GMT
Demonstrators protest police brutality and racism on June 6, 2020, in Washington.
Unrest in the United States: Excerpts From Threat Lens
As protests around the United States have expanded and evolved over the course of the last two weeks, we have covered tactical developments for our Threat Lens clients. Though some other readers may have perceived a lack of coverage, we wish to reiterate that we are not ignoring these historic events, but rather taking the time and effort the issue deserves to evaluate the broader geopolitical impacts of the social and political movements underway in the United States. In the interim, we wish to share excerpts of previous Threat Lens coverage with our Worldview and Enterprise subscribers; additional coverage on the topic on Worldview will be forthcoming.
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AssessmentsMay 29, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A group of demonstrators wave the Palestinian flag on Dec. 31, 2009.
The Palestinians Move to Cut Security Ties With Israel: A Bluff or Something Bigger?
To protest Israel's aggressive annexation push, the Palestinian Authority is beginning to act on longstanding threats to cease coordination with Israeli authorities in the West Bank. On May 19, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declared an end to decades of security and intelligence cooperation with Israel and its main ally, the United States. The timing puts pressure on the Israeli government just before it's slated to begin annexing portions of the West Bank in July, and will raise the risk of violence and unrest in the area. 
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AssessmentsMay 25, 2020 | 12:48 GMT
Remembering America's Allies on Memorial Day
Remembering America's Allies on Memorial Day
This year on Memorial Day, Stratfor would like to consider the countless individuals from across the globe who have worked and fought alongside the U.S. military, with this reflection originally penned in 2016. Memorial Day in the United States is dedicated to remembering the men and women who served and who died in service to country and mission. Yet these dedicated personnel are not alone; they are assisted by other foreign nations and by the security forces and civilian residents of the country in which the U.S. military is operating. Many brave individuals continue to partner with the United States and its allies. Many have returned to their normal lives in some semblance of peace. Some have left their homeland through choice or coercion, and still more have laid down their lives in pursuit of a better tomorrow.
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SITUATION REPORTMay 20, 2020 | 16:03 GMT
Ukraine: Eastern Separatist Forces Placed on High Alert
Representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist areas in eastern Ukraine announced May 19 that their armed forces were being placed on high alert, a move confirmed May 20 by the Luhansk military command. The separatists said the move came in response to an escalation of Ukrainian attacks against them since May 1 and to several incidents targeting civilian infrastructure.
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On GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A mother takes photos with her baby under cherry blossoms in full bloom in Tokyo, Japan, on March 29, 2015.
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations. But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic
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GuidanceApr 27, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Members of Hezbollah’s medical apparatus wear full protective gear in Beirut, Lebanon, to demonstrate their readiness for the COVID-19 fight on March 31, 2020. 
Hezbollah's Soft Power Play Amid COVID-19
Hezbollah is spearheading some of Lebanon’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak, which the central government has struggled to handle. Successful efforts to contain and manage the virus could increase the Iran-backed militant group’s popularity and political power in Lebanon, which has taken a hit in recent years. A more empowered Hezbollah, however, would draw even more ire and pressure from the United States, and could potentially raise the risk for another conflict with Israel.
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PodcastsApr 14, 2020 | 16:30 GMT
Pen and Sword: The RANE Story
In this Pen and Sword podcast hosted by Fred Burton, a conversation with David Lawrence, the founder of RANE, the Risk Assistance Network + Exchange. Lawrence spent a career in business and law and learned the value not just of listening but also of connections.
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AssessmentsApr 8, 2020 | 18:16 GMT
A 3D rendering of the novel coronavirus floating in a cellular environment.
COVID-19: Frequently Asked Questions About Getting Back to Work
To help clients sift through the growing sea of COVID-19 information, RANE pulsed its network of experts to level set what should be top of mind for businesses and individuals as the pandemic unfolds. Stratfor’s geopolitical content and analysis will soon be available through RANE’s platform, where members receive exclusive access to a global marketplace of credentialed risk experts and service providers, proprietary community-driven risk intelligence, and a range of support services and risk management programs. For more information about RANE and Stratfor, visit https://go.ranenetwork.com/stratfor/rane.  This FAQ covers the following questions: What do we now know about this illness and who gets it? How can individuals best protect themselves? Do I need to worry about people getting infected by the virus living on things they touch? What do we do if someone shows symptoms while in the workplace? What can I do to mitigate the risk of being shut down by health authorities? How does this end?
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