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AssessmentsMar 20, 2026 | 20:58 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.
In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks
The Iran war will increase demand for Russian energy, but the resulting revenue gains will likely remain temporary and offset by other costs; still, especially in the case of a protracted conflict in the Middle East, weaker sanctions enforcement and higher oil prices will buoy Moscow's ability to sustain its war in Ukraine for longer. To mitigate energy market shocks caused by the Iran war, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. On March 12, the White House expanded a March 4 waiver, initially limited to India, authorizing a 30-day license for the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto vessels at sea. A week later, on March 19, this relief was expanded to cover petroleum products in addition to crude, allowing the sale of existing tanker cargoes to nearly all countries. The two U.S. sanction waivers,
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsMar 19, 2026 | 18:22 GMT
A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.
Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are reducing global supplies and increasing costs of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal stress for agricultural producers if the Iran conflict persists for several more weeks. The ongoing disruption to shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war is rattling global fertilizer markets by constraining supply, driving up logistics costs and increasing energy prices. The Gulf region is a critical hub for global fertilizer trade, making any interference highly consequential. Roughly one-third of all internationally traded fertilizers and nearly half of traded urea volumes are either produced in the region or rely on its transit routes. Specifically, the Gulf accounts for around 45% of global urea exports, roughly 30% of ammonia exports and around 25% of phosphate fertilizers. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normally carries around
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsMar 18, 2026 | 19:39 GMT
U.S. Naval Update Map: March 19, 2026
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
AssessmentsMar 18, 2026 | 15:37 GMT
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi addresses a news conference at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Feb. 18.
Iran War Heightens Stakes of Key Takaichi-Trump Summit
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will likely be able to make sufficient concessions to U.S. President Donald Trump during their summit to avoid U.S. retaliation and/or a slowdown in her own military modernization policies, but a protracted Iran war could nonetheless undermine her economic growth plans. Takaichi will visit Washington on March 19 to meet with Trump for the first time since she was reappointed as premier on Feb. 18, aiming to firm up relations with Japan's top defense ally and second-largest trade partner. Until recently, the meeting was expected to focus on implementing their July trade deal, cooperating on energy and technology supply chains and coordinating military modernization efforts to jointly deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. On March 14 and 15, however, a more fraught issue was added to the list when Trump demanded that U.S. allies and partners like Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom assist the
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United States
Japan
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 17, 2026 | 22:11 GMT
Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.
The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts
A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships through the Strait of Hormuz would likely only commence once the intensity of the Iran conflict dies down, and even then, such a mission would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited resumption of shipping, unless a comprehensive de-escalation agreement is also reached. In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has been increasing pressure on countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has dropped over 90% since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began on Feb. 28. In a March 16 post on Truth Social, Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and "others" to send naval vessels to the Middle East. The following day, he said it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if the alliance's members did not help protect commercial ships transiting the strait from Iranian attacks. But despite
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United States
Iran
Europe
Economics
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 17, 2026 | 18:55 GMT
Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021.
Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?
Rwanda is unlikely to press ahead with a complete troop withdrawal from Mozambique for the foreseeable future, but the European Union's refusal to provide fresh funding would raise the prospect of a partial drawdown of Rwandan forces that would portend rising security risks in the northern Cabo Delgado province and could prompt Maputo to expand counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. On March 14, Rwandan Foreign Affairs Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said the Rwandan government was ready to withdraw its troops from Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province, where they are stationed to combat a jihadist insurgency, if Kiagli's "efforts and achievements [were] not appreciated." This came after Bloomberg reported on March 12 that funding from the European Union for Rwanda's military deployment in Cabo Delgado is set to expire in May and that EU officials have not yet planned any discussions on a possible renewal. Prior to the Bloomberg report, the
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Mozambique
Rwanda
Energy
Military & Security
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