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AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 22:16 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.
Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026
While Ethiopia is unlikely to launch a large-scale invasion of Eritrea in 2026, worsening tensions over sea access and Asmara's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government increase the likelihood of intensifying proxy clashes along the border that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation. On Oct. 28, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for international mediation regarding Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, stressing that maritime access was a "matter of survival" for Ethiopia. This came after Abiy claimed in early September that it was only a "matter of time" before Ethiopia regained access to the Eritrean port of Assab, arguing that the loss of the port following Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia in 1993 had been a "mistake." These comments came as Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, in early October of entering a pact to "wage
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 5, 2025 | 18:12 GMT
Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen.
The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab
Cooperation between Yemen's Houthi rebels and Somalia's al Shabaab in weapons transfers, training and logistics will likely continue in the coming years and though the extent of further cooperation will remain constrained by the Houthis' need to prioritize their own military imperatives, this will not fundamentally hamper al Shabaab's capabilities. An October 2025 U.N. report confirmed that Somali security services had intercepted multiple arms shipments, including explosives and drones, en route from Yemen and arrested individuals tied to a trafficking network connecting al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab in Somalia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Investigators also documented the growing use of Somali piracy networks to facilitate Houthi maritime disruptions in the Gulf of Aden, including attacks on commercial ships and collecting ransoms from captured crew and vessels. A Somali national affiliated with al Shabaab who acted as a liaison was also identified, admitting to coordinating the travel of approximately
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Somalia
Yemen
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 3, 2025 | 16:38 GMT
Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.
Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, core disputes over territory, security guarantees and frozen assets remain unresolved. As a result, negotiations over the coming weeks are likely to continue with limited progress, though other outcomes could range from a fragile revised deal or a tenuous ceasefire to a complete collapse of talks. On Dec. 2, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. While the Kremlin described the meeting as "very useful," the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a peace plan. Following the talks, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the talks had made "some progress, but we're not there yet." The meeting happened after international media leaked a peace plan drafted by U.S. and Russian officials, largely favorable to Moscow, in late November. A few days later, U.S. and Ukrainian delegations worked on
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United States
Europe
Eurasia
Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
On GeopoliticsDec 1, 2025 | 16:34 GMT
Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025.
Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict
The war in Gaza is paused; the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is not. Israel's armies now sit on the so-called "Yellow Line," occupying roughly half of the Strip. Hamas seeks to gather its battered fighters to attempt to govern the other half. Violations occur and few are optimistic about the future phases of the ceasefire, but few still call it a war either. The drivers of conflict have not ended with the truce. Israel wants Hamas out of Gaza permanently and to block the creation of a Palestinian state. Hamas wants to leverage its damaged but still entrenched position in Gaza into becoming the leader of the Palestinian national movement and eventually the leader of a future Palestinian state. This keeps them locked in conflict -- and on an eventual path to war -- but the victor will be the one who can win the battle for time.
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
SnapshotsNov 24, 2025 | 19:41 GMT
Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut.
Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold
Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires, but a miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting.
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Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsNov 19, 2025 | 17:47 GMT
A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.
U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara
A recent U.N. Security Council resolution expands the growing momentum for Morocco's sovereignty claims over Western Sahara, but the continued dispute over the territory will obstruct any Moroccan-Algerian rapprochement and will limit Morocco's ability to develop some industries there because of EU trade restrictions. On Oct. 31, the U.N. Security Council approved a resolution stating that "genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty could constitute a most feasible solution" for the dispute over Western Sahara, which pits Rabat's claims of sovereignty against a low-level local insurgency. The resolution passed with 11 votes in favor, including the United States. Russia, China and Pakistan abstained, while Algeria -- the main backer of the Polisario Front (PF), the militant group which claims to represent the indigenous Sahrawi people of Western Sahara -- did not vote in protest. In response to the passage of the resolution, the PF ambassador to the United Nations said the resolution
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Algeria
Morocco
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 12, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
A screen is seen during the International military anti drone exercise Baltic Trust 25 (BATT25) at the Selonia (Selija) military training ground near Viesite on Aug. 27, 2025.
Despite Political Enthusiasm, EU Drone Defenses Face Obstacles to Implementation
The European Union's ongoing anti-drone initiatives underscore the bloc's push toward collective defense integration, but persistent financial, political and logistical barriers will slow progress, leaving the bloc vulnerable to continued Russian hybrid drone incursions. On Nov. 10, the European Commission announced that it would formally launch a 250 million euro ($289 million) tender to help EU member states acquire drone and anti-drone capabilities. The move comes less than a month after the commission's Oct. 16 call for stronger anti-drone defenses as part of its "Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030," which outlines plans for shared early-warning systems, cross-border airspace surveillance and harmonized response protocols. In recent weeks, several European countries have unveiled plans to expand national counter-drone measures. Denmark and Belgium have introduced temporary bans and tighter regulations on civilian drone flights near sensitive infrastructure following a series of unidentified drone sightings near airports and power facilities. Belgian authorities have also launched
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Europe
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsNov 10, 2025 | 23:33 GMT
Chile's presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (C) poses with her team after registering her candidacy at the Electoral Service of Chile in Santiago on Aug. 16, 2025.
Chile's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Chile will hold general elections on Nov. 16 to elect a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and half the Senate. A runoff will follow on Dec. 14 if no presidential candidate secures over 50% of the vote. President Gabriel Boric cannot seek re-election, and his coalition backs Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara. Her main rivals include far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast, center-right candidate Evelyn Matthei and ultra-right candidate Johannes Kaiser. Campaigns have centered on crime, migration and slow economic growth, amid Chileans' frustration over failed constitutional reforms since the 2019-2020 protests.
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Chile
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 6, 2025 | 19:38 GMT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addresses the Senate in Rome on Oct. 22, 2025.
Italy Struggles To Translate Political Stability Into Economic Growth
Italy's political and fiscal stability has markedly improved under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and while upcoming institutional reforms could help her further consolidate power ahead of the 2027 elections, weak growth and the expiry of EU recovery funds may compel her to abandon recent fiscal prudence, potentially once again testing investor confidence in the country's fiscal trajectory. On Oct. 30, Italy's Senate gave final approval to Meloni's flagship justice reform, which establishes separate career paths for judges and prosecutors and bans magistrates from switching between these roles. The proposed constitutional amendment also restructures the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM) -- the top self-governing body of the Italian judiciary -- into two distinct branches and expands the President of the Republic's authority over appointments, promotions and disciplinary action. The reform will now proceed to a confirmatory referendum, expected in March or April, where Italian voters will decide whether the constitutional
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Italy
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 16:48 GMT
The COP30 logo at the central building is seen ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 on Nov. 3, 2025 in Belem, Brazil.
A Breakthrough on Climate Targets is Unlikely at Brazil's COP30
At the COP30 climate conference, countries are likely to reach only limited agreements on climate financing and carbon market frameworks while failing to achieve consensus on phasing out fossil fuels, making significant progress on implementation unlikely and postponing key decisions for another year. Brazil will host the 30th U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP30) from Nov. 10 to 21 in the Amazonian city of Belem. The event's agenda has been structured around six thematic axes: energy, industry and transport; forests, oceans and biodiversity; agriculture and food systems; cities, infrastructure and water; human and social development; and cross-cutting issues. The Brazilian government is seeking to build on previous COP outcomes while pushing the transition from negotiation to execution across mitigation, adaptation and climate finance. Delegates from more than 170 countries will seek to finalize the implementation phase of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which consists of five-year review cycles of countries' climate action
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Brazil
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
Social Issues
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