AssessmentsDec 27, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 21:28 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 20:52 GMT
Honduras: Conservative Candidate Asfura Confirmed as President-Elect
Honduran electoral authorities announced that conservative National Party candidate Nasry Asfura won the Nov. 30 presidential election with 40.3% of the vote, Reuters reported on Dec. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 19:16 GMT
Malaysia: Najib's Second Conviction To Test Government Coalition
Malaysia's High Court found former Prime Minister Najib Razak guilty on 21 counts of money laundering and four counts of abuse of power for his role in the 1MDB bribery and money laundering scandal, the New Straits Times reported on Dec. 26.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 26, 2025 | 16:22 GMT
Nigeria: Government Secures $1.2B in Funding for $12B Coastal Highway Megaproject
The United Arab Emirates will provide $1.2 billion to build a section of the proposed 700 kilometer (435 mile) Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Nigerian presidency said on Dec. 26.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 14:30 GMT
Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships
India's recent deals with New Zealand and Oman signal modest efforts to expand trade, investment and labor mobility, but various constraints will limit their impact as India struggles to reach larger agreements with partners like the United States, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council. On Dec. 22, India and New Zealand announced that, after nine months of negotiations, they had reached a free trade agreement (FTA) to reduce tariffs, improve labor mobility and expand trade of goods and services and investment. Signing is expected in the first half of 2026. The announcement of the FTA came days after India and Oman on Dec. 18 signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA).
READ MORESituation ReportDec 24, 2025 | 19:05 GMT
Ukraine: Zelensky Details 20-Point Peace Plan, Eyes Conditional Referendum
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly outlined the 20 points of Ukraine's draft peace plan, RBC-Ukraine reported on Dec. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 24, 2025 | 16:59 GMT
China: Beijing Threatens Retaliation Over Delayed U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs
China said it will take "corresponding measures" in response to U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports from June 23, 2027, following the conclusion of a yearlong Section 301 probe into Beijing's chip policies, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 24, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
Cuba: Mexico Confirms Oil Shipments Amid U.S. Blockade of Venezuela
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed the shipment of 80,000 barrels of oil to Cuba, stating that it occurred pursuant to historic bilateral agreements and for humanitarian reasons, Efe reported Dec. 22.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 24, 2025 | 16:16 GMT
Sahel: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Announce Large-scale Counterterrorism Operations
Interim Burkina Faso leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore pledged large-scale joint military operations against armed groups across the Sahel in the coming days in his new role as head of the Alliance of Sahel States, Al Jazeera reported Dec. 24.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 24, 2025 | 15:40 GMT
EU: U.S. Sanctions Former EU Commissioner, Four Others Linked to Digital Regulation
The European Commission and the governments of France and Germany on Dec. 24 strongly condemned the Dec. 23 U.S. decision to impose visa sanctions on former European Commissioner Thierry Breton and four other Europeans, including leaders of organizations involved in digital regulation and countering online hate and misinformation.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsDec 24, 2025 | 15:08 GMT
The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence
Yemen's Southern Transitional Council (STC) -- backed by the United Arab Emirates -- has been on a blitz across the remnants of the central government's territory. A quick glance at a Yemeni Civil War map might suggest that a returned South Yemen may be on the cusp of reemergence after three decades within a unified state. But this path to de facto independence, while increasingly viable, is still far from a sure thing -- and for the STC to achieve it, the group must balance the pillars of Yemeni geopolitics with a care that suggests a long road still lies ahead.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 20:28 GMT
Mali: Leading Imam Issues Rare Video Appeal for Malians To Rise Up
In a rare video message released Dec. 22, influential Malian religious leader Imam Mahmoud Dicko called on Malians to "rise up and come together" and end restrictions on freedoms and widespread hardship, RFI reported Dec. 23.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 17:52 GMT
Colombia: President Petro Declares Economic Emergency To Implement Special Taxes
Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Dec. 22 signed a decree stating that the country was facing an "imminent fiscal crisis" and declaring a 30-day economic emergency, allowing the government to adopt special taxes to reach its revenue target for 2026, Deutsche Welle reported Dec. 23.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 16:42 GMT
U.S.: FCC Prohibits Approval of All New Foreign-Made Drones
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components on Dec. 22, deeming that they pose "an unacceptable risk" to U.S. national security, Reuters reported Dec. 23.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 23, 2025 | 16:35 GMT
Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Claims Trade Deal Issues Resolved, Paving Way for January Signing
Indonesian officials said Jakarta and Washington had resolved all substantive issues in bilateral tariff talks and planned to formally sign a trade agreement in late January during a visit by President Prabowo Subianto to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the South China Morning Post reported Dec. 23.
READ MORESnapshotsDec 23, 2025 | 16:02 GMT
Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union
Despite growing political and business calls for the United Kingdom to rejoin the EU customs union, internal disputes within the British government and stringent EU conditions make a re-entry unlikely in the short to medium term.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 22, 2025 | 21:12 GMT
Russia: Moscow Scraps Plans for Common Eurasian Financial Market
Leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union on Dec. 21 approved a "differentiated" framework for a common financial market and initiated customs data exchange negotiations with Uzbekistan during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia.
READ MORESituation ReportDec 22, 2025 | 19:14 GMT
India, New Zealand: Free Trade Agreement Announced
India and New Zealand on Dec. 22 announced that they had reached a free trade agreement aimed at deepening economic ties, Bloomberg reported.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 22, 2025 | 17:33 GMT
Deadlock and Dissent Leave Merz's Reform Agenda Floundering
Germany's governing coalition is increasingly constrained by internal divisions, weak party discipline and falling approval ratings. While a government collapse or early elections remain unlikely, these pressures are slowing down and diluting reforms and causing uncertainty over Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ability to restore stability and deliver economic growth.
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