AssessmentsOct 17, 2025 | 19:22 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORE
For more targeted results combine or exclude search terms by applying the Boolean Operators AND, OR and AND NOT. Place quotations around your search term to find documents that contain that exact phrase
Search Tools
Situation ReportOct 16, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil
On Oct. 16, U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would halt oil purchases from Russia, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 17.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 16, 2025 | 18:52 GMT
India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges
India and Canada's recent diplomatic engagements open the door to improved bilateral ties and resumed trade negotiations, though lingering mistrust -- particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada -- may limit deeper progress. During her visit to India from Oct. 12-14, Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand met with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. The two officials agreed on a new roadmap to rebuild trust and deepen cooperation across areas such as trade, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, energy and security. Jaishankar also emphasized that both countries aim to ''de-risk the international economy by forging strong partnerships of growing range and depth.'' Anand was the first Canadian cabinet minister to visit India in two years, after the assassination of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil severely strained ties.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 15, 2025 | 18:31 GMT
Kenya: Former Prime Minister Odinga's Death Portends New Bout of Political Volatility
Kenyan President William Ruto announced a seven-day mourning period after former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who led the Orange Democratic Movement party, or ODM, died of a heart attack while receiving treatment in India, Citizen Digital reported on Oct. 15.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 15, 2025 | 17:07 GMT
Vietnam's Lam Extends Diplomatic Balancing Act With Rare North Korea Visit
The first visit by Vietnam's leader to Pyongyang in nearly two decades reflects Hanoi's balancing strategy and North Korea's bid to broaden ties beyond China, though numerous constraints limit how far ties can deepen beyond certain symbolic steps. From Oct. 9-11, Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam visited Pyongyang at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, marking the first Vietnamese leader-level trip since 2007 and only the second since 1950. The visit coincided with the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), around which Pyongyang organized a series of large-scale commemorations and diplomatic events. During his visit, Lam received a formal welcome ceremony, including a 21-gun salute and held high-level talks with Kim. The two leaders committed to deepen exchanges across party, parliamentary, governmental and local levels; broaden cooperation in sectors such as culture, education, health, tourism and information and communications; and intensify
READ MORESituation ReportOct 13, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
China, Philippines: Maritime Forces Clash in South China Sea
The Philippines accused China's coast guard of using water cannons and ramming a Philippine vessel near Philippine-controlled Thitu Island in the Spratly Islands of the disputed South China Sea, damaging the ship but causing no injuries, Reuters reported on Oct. 12.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 13, 2025 | 16:27 GMT
Australia: Canberra Weighs Critical Minerals Reserve Ahead of U.S. Talks
Australia is consulting miners on a proposed $777 million critical minerals fund that would be led by the government and could include price floors, offtake guarantees and government-backed loans to stabilize domestic producers, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 11.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 11, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Trump Tries To Solidify the Gaza Ceasefire, a Presidential Vote in Cameroon
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 10, 2025 | 21:06 GMT
End of an Era: Japan's 26-Year Coalition Government Falls Apart
The apparent end of Japan's longstanding conservative ruling coalition increases the likelihood of a fragile opposition government taking power, which would lead to greater political instability and uncertainty in U.S.-Japan trade ties, but would also improve prospects for Japan's regional relations. On Oct. 10, Tetsuo Saito, the leader of Japan's center-left Komeito party, the minor coalition partner of the ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party, announced he was ending their 26-year-old coalition agreement. The announcement followed Saito's meeting with new LDP President Sanae Takaichi earlier that day -- the third such meeting since Oct. 4, when the LDP elected Takaichi as party leader. During the Oct. 10 meeting, Saito again requested concrete pledges on political finance reform and corruption investigations, but Takaichi said such moves would take time and require consideration. Saito's announcement has cast uncertainty over the outcome of the LDP's plans to convene an extraordinary Diet session on Oct.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 10, 2025 | 19:07 GMT
Nigeria: Wike Skips Council of State After Appointment of New INEC Chair
Minister for the Federal Capital Territory Nyesom Wike and several former Nigerian heads of state skipped a Council of State meeting over disagreement with President Bola Tinubu's appointment of Joash Amupitan as the chair of Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission, or INEC, on Oct. 10, Sahara Reporters reported the same day.
READ MOREColumnsOct 10, 2025 | 11:17 GMT
The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution
On Oct. 9, a federal grand jury indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James on two counts related to alleged mortgage fraud, making her the most recent of U.S. President Donald Trump's perceived political enemies to face charges. James has drawn Trump's ire for bringing a civil case against him, but her indictment is arguably not the most provocative in the past two weeks. Since returning to the Oval Office in January, Trump has directly taken and indirectly backed steps to target his perceived political enemies, including constant insults, an array of legal investigations and myriad other measures and lingering threats. But Trump's pressure campaign entered new territory on Sept. 25 with the indictment of James Comey, a former FBI director, whom Trump controversially fired during his first term, on two charges linked to allegations he lied in testimony before the Senate in 2020. In the two weeks between the
READ MORESituation ReportOct 9, 2025 | 16:44 GMT
Australia, India: Canberra, New Delhi Sign Submarine Pact
Australia and India signed a submarine agreement, pledged deeper information sharing and outlined defense industrial collaboration, AP reported on Oct. 9.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 9, 2025 | 16:25 GMT
India, U.K.: Modi and Starmer Meet in Mumbai, Vow To Deepen Trade and Defense Ties
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in Mumbai on Oct. 8, where they pledged to deepen their countries' trade and defense cooperation, Reuters reported Oct. 9.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 6, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
Japan's Conservative Takaichi Set To Become Next Prime Minister
In Japan, soon-to-be Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will lean into populism, spurring near-term growth but exacerbating long-term economic challenges, while her nationalism will bolster Japan's military and boost U.S. ties even as it strains those with Japan's neighbors.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 2, 2025 | 18:43 GMT
Kazakhstan: Telegram Opens AI Lab in Astana as Oil Wealth Fuels AI Ambitions
Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov announced the opening of an artificial intelligence lab in Astana, Kazakhstan, to develop new AI services for the app's more than one billion users, KazTAG reported on Oct. 2.
READ MORESituation ReportOct 2, 2025 | 14:43 GMT
Malaysia, China: Governments Discuss Potential Rare Earth Refinery Project
Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional and Chinese entities are in early talks for a potential rare earth project that would see China build a rare earth refinery in the Southeast Asian country and would include developing some of Malaysia's rare earth reserves, Reuters reported on Oct. 2.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 1, 2025 | 15:37 GMT
Japan's LDP Leadership Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Oct. 4 vote for party president and therefore prime minister will influence the trajectory of Japan's fiscal policy and foreign relations.
READ MORESituation ReportSep 29, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
North Korea, China: Foreign Ministers Meet Ahead of Western Engagements
North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Sept. 28 and with Premier Li Qiang on Sept. 29 in Beijing, the South China Morning Post reported on Sept. 29.
READ MORESituation ReportSep 29, 2025 | 15:26 GMT
U.S., Mexico: U.S. and Mexico Announce Anti-Arms Smuggling Partnership
The United States and Mexico announced a partnership to fight cross-border arms trafficking, Reuters reported Sept. 28.
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsSep 29, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.
READ MORE