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AssessmentsOct 31, 2025 | 18:50 GMT
A girl walks past posters and banners depicting political candidates from rival blocs competing for a seat in the Iraqi Council of Representatives in old Mosul, northern Iraq, on Oct. 28, 2025, days before the Nov. 11, 2025, parliamentary elections.
Assessing Iraq's Political Landscape Ahead of Legislative Elections
Iraq's Nov. 11 parliamentary elections will likely yield a broad governing coalition helmed by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani that balances bilateral relations with the United States and Iran, but still faces public service provision challenges. On Nov. 11, Iraq will hold parliamentary elections for all 329 seats in its unicameral legislature, the Council of Representatives. The lead-up to the elections has been marred by controversy and some violence. For instance, influential Shiite nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called for a boycott of the elections, citing corruption, after negotiations with the government to extend the candidate registration deadline failed. There have also been attacks against minority candidates, including a bombing that killed a Sunni candidate in northern Iraq in early October and an attack on the office of a Sunni candidate near Baghdad several days later.
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Politics
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
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United States
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
On SecurityOct 29, 2025 | 15:39 GMT
Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building.
Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success
In recent weeks, a flurry of youth-led mass protests, often given the moniker ''Gen Z,'' has swept across countries in Africa and Asia. Despite each protest movement having its own unique features, there are signs that they have been inspiring, if not significantly coordinating with each other. They share a common frustration with the ruling elite and a belief that poor governance -- due to the rising cost of living, high-level corruption, social injustice, worsening authoritarianism or otherwise -- is mortgaging their futures. These movements not only have generated empathy from outsiders but also resulted in changes, from regime change or changes to unpopular legislation, that open the door to reforms to countries' political structures, economic systems and security apparatuses. But these uprisings also entail numerous risks beyond the obvious potential for near-term violence. These dangers are often overlooked, yet Gen Z protesters will have to confront the same fundamental
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Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
South Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Serbia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 27, 2025 | 15:07 GMT
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.
Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in Gaza in an effort to reduce the likelihood of being unseated by a right-wing anti-Netanyahu coalition led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party has seen an uptick in support following the Oct. 8 announcement of the first phase of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire and the Oct. 13 release of all 20 remaining living hostages. Prior to the ceasefire agreement, most polls conducted in the second half of September showed Likud winning around 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset if parliamentary elections due by October 2026 were conducted now. More recently, according to a poll published on Oct. 16 by Zman Yisrael, Likud would win 34 seats and its likely coalition partners a further 25, bringing the total to 59 -- just short of the 61 needed to
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025.
U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag
The United States will likely use sanctions relief leverage to de-escalate tensions between Syria and Israel and support Syria's economic and reconstruction recovery efforts, while continuing to provide sufficient, albeit diminished, support to the Kurds, enabling them to slow-walk integration with the Syrian government. In recent weeks, the U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, has met with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and visited the Kurdish-majority northeastern city of al-Hasaka to discuss mechanisms to facilitate the integration of the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the Syrian central government. In March, the SDF and al-Sharaa reached an agreement to integrate SDF institutions into the state, but little progress has been made after separate outbreaks of violence between government forces and minority Alawites and Druze communities led the SDF to seek to maintain their arms out of concern for similar clashes with government forces. However, following Barrack's visits and
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United States
Israel
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 21, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election.
Previewing Tanzania's General Elections
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in Tanzania's Oct. 29 general elections, and while her sidelining of opposition forces threatens to trigger potentially violent demonstrations, these are unlikely to pose a threat to her second term, set to focus on advancing constitutional reforms and infrastructure projects. On Oct. 10, Hassan stated at a campaign rally for her Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, or CCM, in the northern Mara region that she would press ahead with constitutional amendments should she be elected for a second term. Hassan's comments built on previous pledges made since taking office in 2021, when she accepted opposition demands for a constitutional review, though precise details have yet to be laid out. But while Hassan's recent comments were likely aimed at shoring up her reformist credentials, authorities have barred the country's two largest opposition parties -- Chadema and the ACT-Wazalendo -- from challenging
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Tanzania
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 20, 2025 | 21:56 GMT
A poster displaying a photo of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen as members of the Bolivarian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise in Caracas on Sept. 20, 2025.
U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela: Potential Scenarios
To weaken the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the United States will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months, while a scenario where Washington only sustains its current strikes on drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean Sea is less likely. Other scenarios -- including de-escalation, a U.S. operation targeting Maduro, a negotiated solution or a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela -- are highly unlikely to occur. On Oct. 15, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he had authorized the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela. He also said he was considering anti-drug trafficking operations on land, in addition to the ongoing U.S. strikes in the southern Caribbean Sea that have targeted at least five boats since early September. The statements, military attacks and drills near Venezuela come after the United States deployed eight warships and 4,500 sailors and marines
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United States
Venezuela
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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