AssessmentsJul 12, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Trump Speaks on Ukraine, Sweeping EU Budget Reform
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 16:45 GMT
New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's recent visit to China highlighted his government's desire to deepen trade ties with Beijing, but New Zealand's hardening regional defense posture and reassertion of control over Pacific partnerships risk scuttling rapprochement and exposing the country to various forms of Chinese coercion in the future. Luxon embarked on his first official visit to China from June 17-20. He first traveled to Shanghai to meet with business and academic leaders, where he facilitated business agreements worth around $522 million in sectors including agriculture, education services, science and technology and climate-related industries for New Zealand, as well as deeper education and research links, respectively. Luxon then paid a state visit to Beijing for meetings with Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, where the leaders signed agreements on customs cooperation, food safety, organic certification, climate policy and scientific collaboration. However, during his meeting with Xi, Luxon also raised concerns
READ MOREAssessmentsMay 28, 2025 | 19:03 GMT
What's at Stake in Mexico's First-Ever Judicial Elections
Candidates aligned with Mexico's ruling Morena party will likely perform strongly in upcoming judicial elections, which will undermine checks and balances and create regulatory uncertainty for businesses over the long term, with the new judiciary also likely to be more susceptible to criminal influence. On June 1, Mexico will hold its first-ever judicial elections, with 881 positions up for a vote, including all nine members of the country's Supreme Court, two out of the seven members of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (which rules on election-related legal issues), 15 Magistrates of the Regional Chambers of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, and five Members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal. Voters will also choose 464 circuit court magistrates and 386 district court judges. The elections follow the adoption of a constitutional reform in September 2024 that made all judges democratically elected, while also establishing a new judicial oversight
READ MOREAssessmentsMay 21, 2025 | 19:41 GMT
South Korea's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
South Korea will hold an early presidential election on June 3 following the April impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his martial law declaration in December. The ruling People Power Party, or PPP, will fight to hold the presidency despite the martial law legacy left by Yoon, while the opposition Democratic Party, or DPK, will seek to take advantage of the early election and low support for the PPP, driven by Yoon's martial law gambit, to assume the presidency for the first time since 2022. The winner will have a five-year term and will not be eligible for reelection. Due to Yoon's impeachment, the new president will take office immediately after the election.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsMay 20, 2025 | 20:38 GMT
Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials
Trade tensions between the United States and other countries -- especially China -- are fueling concerns among U.S. multinational corporations about disruptions to critical raw materials supply chains. As a result, numerous clients have reached out to RANE in recent months for help evaluating the importance and applications of various critical raw materials, analyzing their value chains and predicting potential supply chain threats. These questions can be particularly daunting since many U.S. multinationals are far removed from the initial part of their value chains, with most critical raw materials mining, processing and fabrication often done by distant suppliers. Knowledge among companies is often even scarcer regarding niche or obscure critical raw materials that are nonetheless vital to their operations. As the risk of supply chain disruptions rises, companies that proactively develop contingency plans will be able to navigate these dangers most effectively.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 8, 2025 | 17:06 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: Security Threats in the Strait of Hormuz and Likely Strategies
Rising tensions between Israel, the United States and Iran are increasing the likelihood of strikes on Iranian territory that could trigger an Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a development that would increase oil prices, generate trade disruptions and, over time, could incentivize Gulf states to find alternative oil export routes. For years, the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and measuring approximately 35 to 60 miles (55 to 95 kilometers) in width -- has remained a key geopolitical flashpoint between the United States and Iran, owing to its strategic importance for global trade and energy transit. At least 30% of the world's sea-traded crude oil passes through the strait daily. Given its importance for global oil markets, in the past decades, Iran has repeatedly threatened to blockade the strait as part of its broader rivalry with the
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 12, 2025 | 21:43 GMT
Despite Trump's Push for Talks, a New U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Remains Unlikely
Prospective nuclear talks between Iran and the United States are unlikely to make headway, if they begin at all, due to a lack of trust and an unwillingness to compromise on both sides, keeping tensions over Iran's nuclear program -- and the prospect of Israeli or U.S. military strikes on it -- high. On March 8, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei objurgated U.S. President Donald Trump's call for nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, saying that ''some bullying governments'' seeking talks with Tehran did not seek to ''resolve issues'' but ''impose'' new demands on Iran, and that those demands would ''definitely not be accepted by Iran.'' Khamenei's remarks came after Trump said in a March 6 interview that he had sent Iran's leader a letter calling for the launch of new nuclear talks. The developments also come amid U.S. media reports that Trump personally asked Russian President Vladimir Putin in
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 26, 2025 | 17:31 GMT
The Future of AI Regulation Under the West's New Leadership
The Trump administration will maintain the United States' strongly pro-innovation AI policy, and although the European Union may partially rethink its pro-regulatory position, divisions within the bloc will enforce continued provisions for AI safety. With a new administration in the United States and a new European Commission in the European Union, both jurisdictions are attempting to define their policies on artificial intelligence amid the global AI race, primarily by weakening AI regulations. For instance, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is pledging to roll back the country's few AI rules and ensure that no new burdensome requirements stifle AI innovation. Meanwhile, some European leaders are raising concerns about Europe's ability to compete in AI development and rollout, as well as leverage AI to enhance economic competitiveness more broadly, amid the bloc's heavy regulatory environment. Thus, on both sides of the Atlantic, there appears to be a growing consensus that concerns over
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 10, 2025 | 22:33 GMT
What To Expect From Modi's Meeting With Trump
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to the United States will likely focus on addressing trade concerns, exploring ways to mitigate potential tariffs on key sectors like pharmaceuticals, enhancing defense collaboration, and potentially expanding India's role in the Quad grouping (which also includes Australia and Japan). Modi will travel to the United States on Feb. 12 for a two-day visit where he will meet with President Donald Trump for the first time since Trump retook office on Jan. 20. The visit follows Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar's trip to Washington on Jan. 21 to meet with top diplomats from fellow Quad countries (the United States, Australia and Japan), which marked the first high-level engagement between India and the United States under the new Trump administration. It also follows a Jan. 27 phone call between Modi and Trump in which the two leaders discussed defense cooperation, tackling illegal immigration and
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsNov 29, 2024 | 11:00 GMT
Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict
Though Japan and South Korea present an extreme demographic outlook and have sociocultural, political, economic and security nuances that deserve consideration, they set the blueprint for how the military must contend with stiff competition for human resources, a reconceptualization of manpower and replacement potential of physical personnel.
READ MOREOn SecurityNov 20, 2024 | 16:47 GMT
The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2
Of course, every president has the right to choose leaders with whom he has close relationships and deep trust, and Trump is hardly unique in being accused of installing friends into positions of power. But although every presidential administration exerts some degree of political influence over intelligence agencies, at a minimum it is traditional for those selected to senior posts in the USIC to have relevant expertise and are generally seen as nonpartisan, given that the work of intelligence agencies has historically been considered as so important to be above politics. Trump, by contrast, appears to be elevating fierce loyalists whose main qualifications are ideological alignment, not experience, and who in some cases have directly maligned the work of the USIC. While Trump's nominees, assuming the Senate confirms them, may not end up being as political as feared, and though there are significant institutional barriers to widespread politicization, the mere
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 30, 2024 | 17:55 GMT
The U.S. Braces for a Turbulent – and Potentially Violent – End to the Election
As U.S. Election Day approaches, there is a high likelihood of further physical and cyber attacks targeting election infrastructure and personnel, while the prospect of a disputed outcome of the presidential race could lead to more intense violent unrest that severely harms business operations. On Nov. 5, U.S. voters will go to the polls to elect a new president, with the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump currently too close to call. Americans will also vote to elect the entire 435-seat House of Representatives, 34 of 100 seats in the Senate and scores of local and state positions. While the outcome of the elections will have major implications for U.S. domestic and foreign policies in the coming years, more immediately federal, state and local authorities are warning about a wide range of threats surrounding the polls. In just the past few days, there have been
READ MOREOn SecurityOct 21, 2024 | 18:16 GMT
The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage
The past few weeks have seen a flurry of official Western government statements, media investigations and other reports alleging that multiple foreign countries are increasingly working through proxies to sponsor a wide range of illegal operations, including lethal violence, harassment and intimidation, and cyber threat activity across the West. These operations are setting off alarm bells across North America and Europe as authorities express concern that proxies are becoming bolder and more dangerous.
READ MOREAssessmentsSep 12, 2024 | 20:03 GMT
Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1
Iran's cyber strategy against the West is becoming increasingly focused and aggressive, though Iran's intentions currently outpace its capabilities; Iran's risk tolerance against the United States will likely remain high if former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected in November, whereas the election of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris may offer a slim chance for resumed Western dialogue, which could lead Iran to reevaluate its risk appetite. Recent reports from U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies, as well as independent cybersecurity researchers, have alleged that Iran's most recent efforts to influence the 2024 U.S. election in November have emerged as a threat on par with Russian efforts. In particular, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) warned on July 9 that Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive and ambitious in its disinformation efforts. However, Iran's election influence operations are just one component of its broader cyber strategy against the
READ MORESnapshotsSep 6, 2024 | 18:43 GMT
Tightened Western Tech Export Controls on China Signal More to Come
The United States and the West are likely to continue tightening export controls on China's semiconductor and other high-tech industries to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 21, 2024 | 15:57 GMT
Iran's Pezeshkian Prioritizes Economic Platform in Olive Branch to Conservatives
With his new Cabinet, Iran's president appears to be prioritizing economic reform at the expense of social reform to elicit support from Iran's conservatives, but any new support will likely fade if he is unable to deliver on economic promises and nuclear talks with the West. Iran's parliament approved reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian's nominees for Cabinet positions on Aug. 20 -- marking the first time in over two decades that an Iranian president has pushed all of his nominees through the confirmation process. Nevertheless, since submitting his nominations list on Aug. 11, Pezeshkian has faced criticism for abandoning some of his campaign pledges in favor of conforming his presidency to the limits of what Iran's other institutions -- including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- will allow. Pezeshkian's Cabinet largely abandons his campaign pledge to run a government that was far more inclusive than that of ultra-hardline conservative President Ebrahim
READ MORESituation ReportAug 12, 2024 | 17:36 GMT
U.S.: Trump Campaign Claims Iranian Hackers Leaked Internal Communications
U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's campaign claimed that Iranian hackers leaked some of its internal communications, BBC reported on Aug. 11.
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 2, 2024 | 19:12 GMT
After 14 Years, What Would a U.K. Labour Government Look Like?
In the United Kingdom, a Labour government would increase the state's presence in the economy, spend more on social policies and public services, and embrace a more ambitious energy transition agenda than its Conservative predecessor while trying to maintain fiscal discipline. However, foreign policy would not change significantly, and while Labour would seek closer relations and regulatory alignment with the European Union, major revamps to post-Brexit arrangements would be unlikely. The United Kingdom will hold a general election on July 4, which opinion polls predict the opposition Labour Party will win comfortably, ending 14 consecutive years of Conservative rule. If the polls are correct, Labour will control a solid majority in Parliament, appoint Keir Starmer as prime minister and implement its policy agenda with minimal opposition. A large majority would enable a new Labour government to overcome potential internal dissent and pass legislation despite sporadic intra-party rebellions. By contrast, a
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 20, 2024 | 20:30 GMT
What To Expect From Stronger U.S.-Kenya Ties
Stronger ties with the United States will raise Kenya's profile as a destination for U.S. investments and help it play a leading role in stabilizing the Horn of Africa, but the two countries' partnership will be tested by Nairobi's police deployment to Haiti and former U.S. President Donald Trump's potential reelection. On May 23, the White House announced that President Joe Biden would label Kenya as the United States' first major non-NATO ally in sub-Saharan Africa. The announcement came amid Kenyan President William Ruto's state visit to the United States, in which he clinched significant investment pledges into Kenya, including a $3.6 billion investment by Everstrong Capital LLC to build a highway connecting Nairobi to the port city of Mombasa, as well as a $1 billion investment by Microsoft and Emirati company G42 into a 1-gigawatt data center. In addition to securing strong backing from the private sector, Ruto's trip
READ MOREAssessmentsMay 28, 2024 | 15:06 GMT
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect
The prospect of a second term in office for incumbent President Joe Biden suggests policy continuity towards Northern Asia, while the prospect of former President Donald Trump returning to office will likely lead to unilateral U.S. actions such as trade and tariff policies toward regional actors like China, in addition to a potential softening of relations with Russia and North Korea.
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