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Annual ForecastsJan 5, 2026 | 00:00 GMT
2026 Annual Forecast
As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.
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SnapshotsJan 3, 2026 | 13:44 GMT
Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.
U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region
The United States' claimed capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro creates a leadership vacuum that risks leading to potentially violent instability and unrest in the coming weeks, while also keeping future U.S. strikes on Venezuela and other countries in the region on the table. On Jan. 3, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in an early morning social media post that the United States had captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flown them out of the country. Trump said the operation occurred with U.S. law enforcement and took place alongside U.S. military operations against Venezuela. The Venezuelan government said attacks had occurred in the capital, Caracas, as well as the surrounding states of Aragua, Miranda and La Guaira. The Venezuelan government also declared a state of emergency and called for popular armed mobilization to resist U.S. forces. President Trump announced a press conference at 11:00 a.m. EST to discuss
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsJan 2, 2026 | 20:15 GMT
A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe.
Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast
At a time when forecasts are plentiful and certainty is often overstated, we strongly believe that publishing a transparent record of our accuracy is essential. This annual scorecard is a candid internal assessment of what we forecast accurately, where we missed the mark and where events unfolded in ways that challenged our underlying assumptions. This exercise is not performative. While we will celebrate our successes and further critique our missteps, the goal of this assessment is to sharpen our analytic discipline and inform the forecast for the year ahead.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Global Trade
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportDec 31, 2025 | 17:40 GMT
Congo: M23-Linked Administration Emerges in Uvira After Rebels Withdraw Bulk of Forces
The Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group said it had overseen the deployment of interim civilian security and administration officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's eastern city of Uvira to take charge of security and administration until the deployment of a neutral force to the city, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 30.
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
Rwanda
United States
Military & Security
AssessmentsDec 31, 2025 | 15:06 GMT
Flight routes.
2025: A Geopolitical Review
It is tradition to look back on the year at the end of December, to take stock of where we were, and where we are now. In part, this is an attempt to put what seems like a volatile and ever-changing world into some sort of order, to search for patterns, to make sense of the past. But the main reason isn't to indulge in backcasting -- it is to look into the future, to see how the trends and events of the past 12 months fit into broader temporal patterns, and how these may give us insight into the flow of future history.
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Benin
Burkina Faso
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Madagascar
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Canada
Paraguay
United States
Venezuela
Egypt
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Morocco
Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Syria
Turkey
Yemen
Australia
Cambodia
China
Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Japan
Mongolia
Myanmar
Philippines
South Korea
Thailand
Vietnam
Europe
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Russia
Afghanistan
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 30, 2025 | 21:38 GMT
A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.
Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike
A U.S. drone strike on an alleged drug trafficking port facility in Venezuela will escalate bilateral tensions and make further strikes highly likely in the coming weeks, though a U.S. ground invasion of the country remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. On Dec. 29, CNN reported that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA, carried out a drone strike against a port facility on Venezuela's coast earlier in December, in the first known U.S. attack on a land target within Venezuela. The strike reportedly targeted a dock in an unidentified remote area that the U.S. government believes was being used by the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to store drugs prior to loading them onto boats to be trafficked out of the country. CNN's reporting -- subsequently echoed by other media outlets -- indicates the strike destroyed the facility, but did not result in casualties, as no one was in
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
SnapshotsDec 30, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025.
Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor
Israel's recognition of Somaliland's independence will likely enable it to eventually secure access to military facilities in the territory, which would raise the likelihood of retaliation from the Houthis. It also increases the likelihood of the United States, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates recognizing Somaliland in the coming years and threatens to escalate proxy conflicts in Sudan and Yemen. On Dec. 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel's recognition of the independence of Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland. The move came after Netanyahu signed a declaration of mutual recognition with Somalilander President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Irro, with Israel pledging to expand cooperation with Somaliland in the field of agriculture, health, technology and the economy. Following the signing ceremony, Netanyahu said that the joint declaration was "in the spirit of the Abraham Accords" and that he would tell U.S. President Donald Trump about Somaliland's readiness to formally
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Somalia
Sudan
Egypt
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Military & Security
Situation ReportDec 29, 2025 | 19:47 GMT
Sudan: Al-Burhan Warns Against Backing RSF Amid Mounting Speculation of Ethiopian Involvement
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, warned neighboring countries not to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, stressing that Sudan had the right to "defend [its] borders" and would be able to "reach [those who aid the RSF] anywhere," Sudan Tribune reported on Dec. 28.
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Sudan
Egypt
United Arab Emirates
Military & Security
SnapshotsDec 29, 2025 | 15:57 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.
Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks
Despite the recent progress toward a U.S.-backed peace plan for Ukraine, the negotiations will risk stalling or collapsing as Russia's unchanged maximalist demands and unresolved disputes over security guarantees and territorial concessions continue to block a durable settlement. On Dec. 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida to advance negotiations on a peace plan aimed at ending the war with Russia. Both leaders held a joint press conference and reported substantial progress, with Zelensky stating the plan was "90% agreed" and U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine "100% agreed." Trump said the parties were "very close" to a peace deal, though "thorny" issues remained, particularly over territorial questions such as the Donbas, the region of eastern Ukraine comprising Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. On Dec. 29, Zelensky added that the United States was currently offering security guarantees to Ukraine for 15 years, but Kyiv wants
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United States
Europe
Eurasia
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsDec 26, 2025 | 14:30 GMT
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.
Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships
India's recent deals with New Zealand and Oman signal modest efforts to expand trade, investment and labor mobility, but various constraints will limit their impact as India struggles to reach larger agreements with partners like the United States, European Union and Gulf Cooperation Council. On Dec. 22, India and New Zealand announced that, after nine months of negotiations, they had reached a free trade agreement (FTA) to reduce tariffs, improve labor mobility and expand trade of goods and services and investment. Signing is expected in the first half of 2026. The announcement of the FTA came days after India and Oman on Dec. 18 signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA). 
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Oman
New Zealand
India
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
On GeopoliticsDec 24, 2025 | 15:08 GMT
Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025.
The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence
Yemen's Southern Transitional Council (STC) -- backed by the United Arab Emirates -- has been on a blitz across the remnants of the central government's territory. A quick glance at a Yemeni Civil War map might suggest that a returned South Yemen may be on the cusp of reemergence after three decades within a unified state. But this path to de facto independence, while increasingly viable, is still far from a sure thing -- and for the STC to achieve it, the group must balance the pillars of Yemeni geopolitics with a care that suggests a long road still lies ahead.
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Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
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