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AssessmentsJun 21, 2024 | 20:17 GMT
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Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 21, 2024 | 18:39 GMT
![Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Vietnamese President To Lam attend an event in Hanoi, Vietnam, on June 20, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Vietnamese President To Lam attend an event in Hanoi, Vietnam, on June 20, 2024.](https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/16x9_full/public/GettyImages-2157829707%20%281%29.jpg?itok=v8C0X9eT)
Putin's Trip to Vietnam Yields Energy Deals, but Defense Cooperation Will Remain Constrained
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Vietnam will forward shared energy interests, particularly oil and gas projects in the South China Sea, but reinvigorating a stalled defense industrial relationship is likely a bridge too far. From June 19-20, Putin visited Vietnam where he met with General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and President To Lam. The leaders signed several agreements on areas such as educational ties, ministerial-level collaboration, nuclear energy research, healthcare, and joint oil and gas operations in the South China Sea. The deals probably also included a trade financing mechanism, as Vietnam has left the Russian MIR payment system while Russia was excised from the SWIFT payment system, complicating transactions between the two countries. According to Putin, 60% of Russia-Vietnam transactions are now conducted in each other's respective currencies, which a memorandum of understanding between Vietnam's Bao Viet Fund Management Joint Stock Company and
READ MORESnapshotsJun 20, 2024 | 22:21 GMT
![Portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are displayed in Pyongyang, North Korea, for Putin's visit to the country on June 20, 2024. Portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are displayed in Pyongyang, North Korea, for Putin's visit to the country on June 20, 2024.](https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/16x9_full/public/North%20Korea%20Russia%20GettyImages-2157829435.jpg?itok=yQSlTaJl)
The Significance of Russia and North Korea's New Defense Pact
Russia's deepening ties with North Korea are meant to draw U.S. attention and resources away from Ukraine by increasing the threat of conflict in another region. On June 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a comprehensive bilateral strategic cooperation agreement that notably requires Moscow and Pyongyang to come to each other's aid in the event of ''aggression'' against either country. Both leaders described the agreement as a major upgrade to their relations, particularly their security ties, while also mentioning deepened trade, economic and humanitarian and cultural ties, as well as cooperation on nuclear energy, space exploration, and other topics.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 18, 2024 | 15:24 GMT
Russia, North Korea: Putin Makes First State Visit to DPRK in 24 Years
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) for a two-day state visit, which is his first official visit in 24 years, Reuters reported June 18.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 17, 2024 | 20:07 GMT
China, Europe: Beijing Launches Anti-Dumping Probe Into European Pork
China's commerce ministry launched an anti-dumping probe into European pork imports, including meat and offal, on June 17, Reuters has reported.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 15, 2024 | 13:00 GMT
![President Cyril Ramaphosa is sworn in as member of parliament during the first sitting of the new South African parliament on June 14 in Cape Town, South Africa. Ramaphosa will be inaugurated to a second term in a ceremony scheduled to take place June 19 in Pretoria. President Cyril Ramaphosa is sworn in as member of parliament during the first sitting of the new South African parliament on June 14 in Cape Town, South Africa.](https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/16x9_full/public/South%20Africa%20Ramaphosa%20GettyImages-2156827488.jpg?itok=JSk36nbz)
The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine's Peace Summit, South Africa's Inauguration
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 14, 2024 | 19:33 GMT
Vietnam, U.S.: New President Lam Aims To Expand Security, Defense Ties With U.S.
New Vietnamese President To Lam told U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Marc Knapper that Hanoi wants to deepen security and defense ties with Washington, state-run Tuoi Tre reported on June 14.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 14, 2024 | 17:29 GMT
South Korea, Uzbekistan: Yoon Seeks His Own Belt and Road Initiative
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol met with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and they signed various agreements on critical minerals, transportation infrastructure and development cooperation, partly under the banner of what Yoon has deemed the "K-Silk Road," Yonhap News Agency reported on June 14.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 12, 2024 | 16:37 GMT
Japan: Aso Ditches Kishida Meeting, a Bad Omen for September
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hoped to have dinner with Taro Aso, the vice president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and a key party elder, on June 11, but Kishida retired early to his residence that night, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on June 12.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 11, 2024 | 15:52 GMT
![South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.](https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/16x9_full/public/South%20Korea%20Africa%20GettyImages-2155378046.jpg?itok=E7V6ljHK)
In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa
The inaugural Korea-Africa Summit indicates President Yoon Suk Yeol's grand vision for South Korea as a global power, but his plans will face security, economic and political constraints that have long plagued other developed nations active in Africa. South Korean President Yoon hosted the inaugural Korea-Africa Summit in Seoul from June 4-5, attracting delegates from 48 African countries and enabling Yoon to meet with 25 African leaders in sideline meetings. At the summit, attendees signed various cooperation agreements, with a heavy emphasis on Seoul providing development assistance and deepening state-to-state ties in trade, infrastructure and critical minerals. In a joint statement released by Seoul on June 4, the countries agreed to launch the Korea-Africa Critical Minerals Dialogue, with Yoon emphasizing the need for minerals -- highlighting cobalt, chrome and manganese -- in electric vehicles, EV batteries and various other renewable energy technologies amid supply chain insecurity. Seoul signed over 50
READ MORESituation ReportJun 10, 2024 | 18:01 GMT
South Korea: War of Words and Garbage Intensifies at the Border
South Korea's military activated propaganda loudspeakers near the North Korean border on June 9 but ceased broadcasting the next day, with the Joint Chiefs of Staff stating that broadcasts could continue depending on Pyongyang's actions, Yonhap News Agency reported on June 10.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 7, 2024 | 18:36 GMT
Japan: Refugee Law Highlights Persistent Labor Troubles
Ethnic Koreans and Chinese in Tokyo are protesting a new Japanese law that would send some refugees (those who have applied three times or more) back to their home countries during application processing, and the law is due to take effect on June 10, The Asahi Shimbun reported on June 7.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 7, 2024 | 18:34 GMT
China: Green Transportation Plan To Spur Innovation, Western Trade Tensions
China's Ministry of Transport released a plan to upgrade transportation equipment -- including old diesel trucks, buses, locomotives, ships, postal equipment and logistics facility equipment -- to more efficient or low-carbon alternatives by 2028, the Global Times reported on June 7.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 4, 2024 | 19:39 GMT
South Korea: Seoul To Resume Military Activities at North Korean Border
South Korea's deputy defense minister for policy stated in a press briefing that the country will restore military activities at the border with North Korea, including immediately deploying propaganda loudspeakers, Yonhap News Agency reported on June 4.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 4, 2024 | 19:36 GMT
Japan: Kishida Calls Off Snap Election for Now, According to Asahi Sources
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida decided against calling a snap election during the current Diet session, which ends on June 23, The Asahi Shimbun reported on June 4, citing unnamed sources.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 4, 2024 | 17:04 GMT
South Korea, Africa: Summit Targets Minerals, New Markets, Presages Security and Financial Risks
South Korea is holding the inaugural South Korea-Africa Summit in Seoul from June 4-5, with Seoul's June 4 joint statement outlining areas of prospective cooperation, including critical minerals development, especially of cobalt, chrome, manganese and critical minerals for electric vehicles, batteries and new energy technology, Yonhap News Agency reported the same day.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 3, 2024 | 15:47 GMT
Japan: LDP Talks With Nippon Ishin, Shows Potential for a More Military-Focused Coalition
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has agreed in talks with minor coalition partner Komeito and conservative opposition party Nippon Ishin to lower the minimum reportable amount of funds raised from party event ticket sales in the draft Political Funds Control Law (PFCL), the Asahi Shimbun reported June 1.
READ MORESituation ReportMay 31, 2024 | 19:00 GMT
China, Europe: Beijing Threatens European Trade Commissioner With Retaliation
China's Commerce Ministry sent a five-page letter to European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis calling to negotiate a solution to trade tensions and warning of Chinese retaliation against European goods, starting with aviation and agriculture, if Brussels does not cease its trade investigations into China and Chinese entities, Politico reported on May 31.
READ MORESnapshotsMay 30, 2024 | 20:41 GMT
![(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. (From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea.](https://worldview.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/styles/16x9_full/public/GettyImages-2154337435.jpg?itok=mh6MPH8r)
Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions
Despite ongoing efforts to improve trilateral ties, South Korean and Japanese economic and security interests will remain largely at odds with those of China, making progress on trade and military cooperation difficult. However, potential leadership changes in the United States and Japan, along with potential economic changes in South Korea, hold a small chance of improving this dim outlook for cooperation between the three countries.
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