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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 09:00 GMT
2024 Elections: The European Union
2024 Elections: The European Union
Opinion polls suggest the June 9 European Parliament election will see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.
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Europe
Politics
AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.
Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime
While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.
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Singapore
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 15, 2024 | 18:57 GMT
U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C.
Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China
The recent summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicates the indispensability of the expanding Japan-U.S. defense partnership to both countries' Asia-Pacific policy agendas and the secondary nature of the United States' ties with South Korea, while new U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict. Biden and Kishida met on April 10 for an hour and a half in a closed-door meeting, followed by a joint press conference at the White House and a state dinner for Kishida and his wife later that night. A joint statement later released by both sides explored the geopolitical, industrial, and defense content of the meeting. On the geopolitical side, much ink was spilled affirming ideological common ground, including a free and open international order; opposing Chinese efforts to change the territorial status
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United States
China
Japan
South Korea
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 5, 2024 | 16:06 GMT
A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones.
The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration
Despite a recent joint initiative to assess risks from artificial intelligence, the United States and the United Kingdom will maintain their pro-innovation approaches to AI that will keep regulations less robust than those in the European Union, although London's AI laws may grow stricter after the country's upcoming general election. The United States and the United Kingdom signed a first-of-its-kind agreement on AI safety on April 1, becoming the first countries to formally initiate bilateral cooperation on AI testing and risk assessments for emerging AI models. The agreement lays out how the two governments will share technical knowledge, information and talent on AI safety, as well as how they will evaluate private AI models via the United Kingdom's new AI Safety Institute, or AISI, and its U.S. counterpart of the same name. The bilateral agreement and the formation of these two institutes follow the November 2023 AI Safety Summit, which
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United States
Europe
United Kingdom
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese car manufacturer BYD's stacked electric vehicles wait to be loaded onto a ship at the international container terminal of Taicang Port at Suzhou Port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Sept. 11, 2023.
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
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United States
Australia
China
Europe
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 3, 2024 | 18:16 GMT
A glass-like hydrogen molecule is superimposed over a green background.
Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 1: Hopes and Constraints
The European Union is betting on green hydrogen to help reach its 2050 net-zero targets while maintaining industrial and economic competitiveness thanks to the fuel's potential to decarbonize hard-to-abate productive sectors of the economy, but significant constraints cast doubt over this strategy's viability. The European Union considers green hydrogen, which is hydrogen produced entirely using renewable energy resources, a pivotal element of its decarbonization strategy. This is primarily because green hydrogen could significantly reduce the carbon emissions of so-called hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industries (such as cement, steel and chemicals) and activities like heavy-duty transport (such as trucking, shipping and aviation). For this reason, in 2020 the European Union adopted its hydrogen strategy, which aims to scale up and decarbonize hydrogen production in the bloc with the ultimate ambitious goal of producing 10 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030. In 2022, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
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Europe
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsMar 27, 2024 | 19:50 GMT
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol gives a speech on the government budget at the National Assembly in Seoul on Oct. 31, 2023.
Legislative Elections Will Prove Pivotal for South Korea's Lame Duck President
A conservative victory in South Korea's April 10 legislative elections would accelerate pro-business policies and boost the country's arms industry, while a victory by the liberals would perpetuate pro-labor and green transition policies, though neither scenario would portend major changes to Seoul's foreign policy, which is largely driven by the president. On April 10, South Korea will hold elections for its unicameral legislature, the National Assembly. The ruling People Power Party (PPP) is ideologically aligned with South Korea's conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol, holds just 114 out of 300 legislative seats, and aims to upset the liberal opposition Democratic Party of Korea's (DPK) simple majority of 156 seats. Numerous splinter parties are also seeking to challenge the PPP and DPK for seats, including the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP), which aims to end the ''prosecutorial dictatorship'' of Yoon's presidency (a reference to Yoon's use of prosecutor's office connections to target political rivals);
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South Korea
Politics
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