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SITUATION REPORTSep 30, 2020 | 19:50 GMT
Hong Kong: Chinese Officials Warn of Potential “Terrorist Acts” at Expected Oct. 1 Protests
China's Hong Kong liaison office warned of potential "terrorist acts" at expected Oct. 1 National Day protests after a group called Fifteenth Night Operation said it would carry out a “non-peaceful demonstration” in the city and allegedly instigated people to buy weapons to attack police, Hong Kong Free Press reported Sept. 30.
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SnapshotsSep 29, 2020 | 20:24 GMT
A Split Poll Sways Hong Kong’s Pro-Democracy Lawmakers to Stay for Extended Term
As the room for dissent in the city shrinks, Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp will find itself increasingly divided between those who want to work within the system, those who choose to confront authorities and those who want to simply opt-out of politics altogether. On Sept. 29, 15 Hong Kong pro-democracy lawmakers announced that they had chosen not to boycott the upcoming extended Legislative Council term, following a poll showing their supporters were divided on the issue. The lawmakers took the inconclusive poll results as a directive to exercise their own discretion, saying they chose "the lesser of two evils" in order to prevent the pro-Beijing camp from easily passing adverse legislation and to maintain a platform to express pro-democracy opinions. 
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Quarterly ForecastsSep 28, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
2020 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
The last quarter of 2020 will be a waiting game -- waiting for the results of the U.S. election in November, waiting on economic numbers, and waiting to see how the COVID-19 crisis plays out.
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On GeopoliticsSep 25, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A damaged EU flag is seen in Brenzone, Italy, on Aug. 14, 2019. 
The Quest for European Unity: No End of History
Europe faces a challenge of identity and international role over the next decade. For nearly 500 years, Europe sat at the center of the international system, its internal competitions rippling out across the globe. But the relative balance of global power and influence has shifted. And rather than being the driving force of global dynamics, Europe is increasingly caught between major powers: the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and now the United States and China. Internally, Europe still strives for the creation of a continental union, though those dreams have been eroded by financial crises, Brexit and a resurgence of nationalism in recent years. Externally, Europe remains fragmented in its foreign policy and prioritization. The shifting patterns of global competition will compel Europe to rethink its internal structures and to come to grips with defining its interests abroad. Otherwise, it will find itself drifting further
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PodcastsSep 24, 2020 | 05:00 GMT
Essential Geopolitics: Duterte's China Shift
In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue speaks to Stratfor Asia-Pacific analyst Evan Rees. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte gave a U.N. General Assembly speech this week that indicated he would take a hardline position on his country's South China Sea claims.
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SnapshotsSep 23, 2020 | 21:23 GMT
U.S., Russia: What to Make of Washington's Reversal on New START
The success of the White House’s attempt to score a pre-election foreign policy win by shifting its position in favor of a temporary New START extension will depend on Russia playing along, though Washington’s long-term goal of expanding the nuclear arms control treaty to a trilateral framework still rests entirely on China. In an interview with daily Russian newspaper Kommersant published on Sept. 21, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea said the United States was now open to extending the arms agreement it signed with Moscow in 2010, which is currently set to expire on Feb. 5, but by no more than five years. Washington will only agree to such an extension, however, if Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to either a joint statement or memorandum of intent (MOI) outlining the framework of a successor treaty with U.S. President Donald Trump prior to the November presidential election.
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SITUATION REPORTSep 23, 2020 | 20:26 GMT
Malaysia: Opposition Leader Claims to Have Parliamentary Majority
The head of Malaysia's opposition Pakatan Harapan bloc, Anwar Ibrahim, announced Sept. 23 that he has garnered the support of nearly two-thirds of the country's 222 parliamentarians and is planning to meet with monarch Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah to receive permission to form a new government, South China Morning Post reported Sept 23. 
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SnapshotsSep 22, 2020 | 22:24 GMT
Reading the Fine Print of Angola’s Debt Restructuring
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s recently announced $1 billion disbursement to Angola is based partly on China indicating a willingness to defer 2020 debts. But Beijing's creditor role may be complicated by possible efforts to take an equity stake in some of the Southern African country's oil fields. And while the funds will help fill some of Angola's financing gaps, there is clearly a market view that the country may require more comprehensive debt restructuring, even if it doesn't happen until 2021 or later. 
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