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SnapshotsJul 3, 2025 | 19:58 GMT
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025.
A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension
In Thailand, the prime minister's suspension creates a new political crisis that raises the risk of government collapse and economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions. On July 1, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office while it reviews a petition alleging she violated the constitution by conducting foreign policy in an unethical and unauthorized manner. The complaint, which was submitted by 36 senators, centers on the prime minister's June 15 phone call with Hun Sen, Cambodia's former prime minister and current Senate president, during which she discussed ongoing border demarcation tensions and referred to the Thai military as an "opponent." Hun leaked an audio recording of the call, which triggered an uproar in Thailand, with critics arguing that Paetongtarn's tone was overly deferential and that she undermined Thailand's negotiating position in its long-running territorial dispute with Cambodia around un-demarcated border temple regions. On June 18, the Bhumjaithai
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Cambodia
Thailand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJul 3, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: July 3, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
AssessmentsJul 2, 2025 | 17:30 GMT
Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.
Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions
Vietnam's historic administrative restructuring will trigger short-term bureaucratic friction but lays the foundation for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency and improved investment conditions if the government effectively implements the changes over time. On June 30, Vietnam officially rolled out its most significant administrative restructuring in its post-unification history. This followed the National Assembly passing a resolution on June 12 to merge the country's 63 provincial‑level units into 34, now comprising 28 provinces and six centrally governed, provincial-level cities. This reform rests on an earlier April 12 directive from the Central Committee that authorized merging 52 previously existing provinces into 23 new units, the elimination of the entire district level (formerly there were 696 mid-level jurisdictions between province and commune), and a 60-70 % reduction in commune-level units under a new province-commune two‑tier model (with the prior inclusion of the district level constituting a three-tier model). The new local administrations formally assumed full
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Vietnam
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries
The U.S. decision to pause key arms deliveries to Ukraine will degrade Ukraine's ability to repel intensifying Russian attacks, raising the risk that Kyiv could eventually be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms in future peace negotiations if Washington does not reverse its decision or if Ukraine fails to secure alternative support. On July 1, the United States announced it was pausing the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. According to U.S. officials cited in multiple media reports, the weapons affected by this decision include interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, precision-guided artillery shells and air-launched missiles compatible with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets. While the list of delayed weapons has not been made public, if the media reports are accurate, the freeze will impact deliveries of weapons that are critical to Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities. On July 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it had not received any official
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 19:51 GMT
Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025.
Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy
Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing disputes over water-sharing and airspace closures, which will increase the risk of future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year. On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire after a series of retaliatory strikes and cross-border clashes triggered by a deadly militant attack on April 22 in India-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi claims was carried out by an alleged Pakistan-backed militant group. Following the ceasefire, India and Pakistan's military leaders held a phone call on May 12 to discuss de-escalation. Later, on May 30, a senior Pakistani military official stated that the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to reduce troop deployments along the border to pre-conflict levels, though no such drawdown has yet been observed.
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India
Pakistan
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 26, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: June 26, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
SnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 19:52 GMT
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference at a hotel in Paris on June 24, 2025.
In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability
The collapse of France's pension reform negotiations could undermine Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's fragile minority government, increasing the risk of no-confidence votes, budgetary deadlock and potentially early elections at a time when the country is facing mounting pressure to rein in its growing deficit. On June 23, months-long negotiations between French unions and employer groups over potential amendments to President Emmanuel Macron's contested 2023 pensions reform collapsed. The talks focused on revising the law that gradually raises France's retirement age from 62 to 64, as part of a last-ditch attempt to ease tensions between the government, trade unions and opposition parties. Prime Minister Bayrou had tasked unions and employers with identifying compromise measures, including earlier retirement options for physically demanding jobs and greater recognition of maternity leave. However, employer groups reportedly opposed any changes that they argued would impose new costs and could threaten the financial balance of the system.
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France
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsJun 19, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to media during the closing press conference of the G7 Summit in Fasano, Italy, on June 15, 2024.
Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives
Facing fiscal and political constraints, Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan within broader EU and multilateral frameworks to secure greater financial and political backing and punch above its weight in advancing energy diversification and migration management goals in Africa. But structural limitations will likely constrain Rome's ability to expand its influence on the continent beyond a narrow set of strategic interests. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair a high-level summit in Rome on June 20, bringing together leaders from several African countries and key multilateral financial institutions to advance Italy's strategic development initiative for Africa, known as the Mattei Plan for Africa, and align it with the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure and connectivity investment framework. Discussions will center on shared priorities, such as advancing sustainable infrastructure, energy cooperation, digital and physical connectivity, vocational training
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe
Italy
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 19, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: June 19, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
Situation ReportJun 18, 2025 | 16:49 GMT
Romania: Mainstream Parties To Form Broad Coalition Government
Romanian President Nicusor Dan and the country's main centrist, pro-European parties -- the center-left Social Democratic Party, the center-right National Liberal Party, the liberal center-right Save Romania Union and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania -- agreed to form a new, rotating coalition government, Euractiv reported on June 17.
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Romania
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsJun 16, 2025 | 21:27 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification
While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is attempting to use global trade tensions to strengthen economic integration, the bloc's diversity will limit the extent of this effort even as, over time, common concern about export dependencies on the United States will drive ASEAN members to seek alternative trading partners. On May 26-27, Malaysia, as the 2025 ASEAN chair, hosted a series of summits that underscored ASEAN's broad dual-track initiatives to bolster intra-bloc trade and trade diversification. The 46th ASEAN Summit, convened on May 26, brought together leaders from the ten-member bloc and produced a new five-year strategic plan aimed at deepening economic integration among member states, with goals such as further harmonizing trade standards, enhancing financial integration and promoting sustainable economic practices. Leaders also committed to finalizing an upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement by October, which aims to further liberalize regional markets and boost intra-ASEAN trade beyond
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United States
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
SnapshotsJun 13, 2025 | 09:21 GMT
A view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
What To Expect as Israel Goes After Iran's Nuclear Program, Military Capabilities
Israel's unprecedented attacks on Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure mark a deliberate escalation aimed at degrading both Iran's nuclear capabilities and leadership command, likely triggering sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in the near term. In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched extensive attacks on Iranian targets, involving around 200 aircraft and 330 munitions hitting approximately 100 sites across Iran. The offensive, announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a multiday operation to neutralize what he called an existential threat, focused on critical nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz, Khondab, Khorramabad, and Tehran-area enrichment facilities. Strikes also targeted military assets -- such as missile factories, air-defense systems and command centers -- as well as residential neighborhoods housing senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders. Among those reportedly killed were IRGC Commander-in-Chief Gen. Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, and prominent
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Iran
Israel
Military & Security
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