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AssessmentsJan 14, 2026 | 19:51 GMT

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

Tanzania's president will likely maintain a repressive approach to opposition groups in the wake of widespread post-election protests that, even with small concessions to political opponents, will sustain a risk of further bouts of large-scale unrest in the future, weighing on the economy and opening security gaps that jihadist groups may try to exploit.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 14, 2026 | 19:36 GMT

Nigeria: U.S. Delivers Military Equipment To Strengthen Nigeria's Security Capabilities

The United States has reportedly delivered critical military equipment to Nigeria to support its fight against multiple security threats across the country, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 14, 2026 | 18:10 GMT

Indonesia, U.S.: Washington's Security Demands Complicate Trade Deal Finalization

The United States is demanding Indonesia purchase U.S.-made maritime surveillance drones and use them to publicly harden its South China Sea and Natuna Sea posture vis-a-vis China as conditions for cutting threatened tariffs from 32% to 19%, according to an Indonesian government document cited by The Straits Times on Jan. 14.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 13, 2026 | 22:12 GMT

U.K., Ukraine: London Initiates Independent Deep Strike Missile Pipeline for Kyiv

The United Kingdom's defense ministry launched Project Nightfall to procure a ground-launched ballistic missile system capable of striking targets over 500 kilometers (310 miles) away, specifically for the Ukrainian battlefield, Kyiv Independent reported Jan 12.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation ReportJan 13, 2026 | 21:46 GMT

Kazakhstan: Black Sea Strikes Threaten Key Export Route and Economic Stability

Unidentified drones attacked oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, terminal in the Black Sea, Reuters reported on Jan. 13, a development later confirmed by Kazakhstan's energy ministry.

Military & Security

AssessmentsJan 13, 2026 | 20:09 GMT

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Renewed U.S. pressure to acquire Greenland will likely force Europe to either negotiate an arrangement that grants Washington de facto control over the island or confront an unprecedented NATO crisis if the United States pursues unilateral coercive measures, which would severely destabilize European security and accelerate rearmament and strategic autonomy efforts.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 12, 2026 | 22:03 GMT

Bolivia: Government To Repeal Controversial Economic Decree, With Subsidy Cuts Remaining

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz's government came to an agreement with protesting unions and activists to repeal Decree 5503, which declared an economic emergency, while maintaining the measures related to the removal of the fuel subsidy, DW reported on Jan. 11.

AssessmentsJan 12, 2026 | 21:22 GMT

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

On Jan. 5, RANE published its 2026 Annual Forecast containing our predictions for the upcoming year. This piece is designed to complement our forecast by focusing on top risks that could have a major impact on organizations and/or their operations in 2026. This report highlights two main categories of risks: high-impact, low-probability risks that are excluded from the annual forecast but could have significant implications, and trends already covered in the annual forecast but are presented here in a more extreme nature.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation ReportJan 12, 2026 | 21:13 GMT

Ukraine: Zelensky Signals Expanded Special Operations as Diplomacy Stalls

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had approved and was conducting new covert and deep strike operations against Russia, Politico reported on Jan. 11.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation ReportJan 12, 2026 | 20:28 GMT

U.S.: Prosecutors Launch Criminal Investigation Into Powell

U.S. prosecutors launched a criminal probe into the Federal Reserve related to the renovation of the Fed's D.C. headquarters in an apparent attempt to weaken the Fed's independence, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 12.

Situation ReportJan 12, 2026 | 20:26 GMT

Syria: Kurdish-Led SDF Withdraws From Aleppo

The last of the remaining U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, militants withdrew from Aleppo, Reuters reported on Jan. 11.

Military & Security

AssessmentsJan 10, 2026 | 14:00 GMT

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

Military & Security

PodcastsJan 10, 2026 | 10:00 GMT

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for European Politics in 2026

In this episode of Essential Geopolitics, RANE Director of Analysis Adriano Bosoni and RANE's lead Europe analyst, Matteo Ilardo, examine the current state of European politics and discuss the forces shaping the geopolitical landscape in Europe through 2026.

AssessmentsJan 9, 2026 | 21:05 GMT

Geopolitical Calendar

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Situation ReportJan 9, 2026 | 18:39 GMT

Nigeria: Trump Hints at More U.S. Strikes if More Christians Are Killed

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with The New York Times on Jan. 8 that while he would "love" for recent U.S. military action in Nigeria to be a "one-time strike," it would be a "many-time strike" if more Christians were killed in the country.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 9, 2026 | 18:36 GMT

South Africa: Pretoria's BRICS+ Naval Drills With Iran Set To Draw Trump's Ire

South Africa is scheduled to host the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval military exercises off the coast of Simons Town's naval base in the company of Chinese, Russian and Iranian vessels on Jan. 9-16, The Independent Online reported on Jan. 9.

Military & Security

Situation ReportJan 9, 2026 | 17:39 GMT

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at targets in Ukraine's Lviv region during a broader missile and drone attack on energy and civilian infrastructure, Reuters reported on Jan. 9.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation ReportJan 9, 2026 | 16:30 GMT

EU, Mercosur: EU Member States Approve Mercosur Trade Deal

EU member states gave provisional approval for the European Commission to sign the long-delayed free trade agreement with South America's Mercosur bloc, Reuters reported Jan. 9.

Situation ReportJan 8, 2026 | 21:43 GMT

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia as Cyprus assumed the European Union's rotating presidency, Reuters reported on Jan. 8.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Situation ReportJan 8, 2026 | 21:23 GMT

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

Moscow warned that any Western troops, bases or military infrastructure in Ukraine would be classified as foreign intervention and treated as legitimate combat targets by the Russian armed forces, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Jan. 8.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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