AssessmentsApr 4, 2026 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsApr 3, 2026 | 19:24 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 3, 2026 | 19:21 GMT
Iraq Is Caught in the Crossfire of Another Destabilizing War
In Iraq, violent spillover from the Iran conflict will further strain pre-existing domestic divisions, while likely stalling the government formation process and fueling U.S. pressure for militias to disarm; reduced state revenue from disrupted oil exports will also hamper public service provision and push Iraq to increase borrowing. On April 2, the U.S. embassy in Baghdad urged Americans to leave the country, warning that "Iraqi terrorist militia groups aligned with Iran may intend to conduct attacks in central Baghdad in the next 24-48 hours." The alert followed U.S. claims that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), had kidnapped an American journalist working in Baghdad on March 31. Since the United States and Israel began striking Iran in late February, PMF militias have conducted numerous retaliatory attacks across Iraq, including against the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, U.S. military bases and hotels frequented by Americans in the
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 18:51 GMT
Ecuador: Authorities Declare New State of Emergency in Nine Provinces
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on April 2 declared a new 60-day state of emergency in nine of the country's 24 provinces, including the province of Pichincha, where Quito is located, and Guayas, which includes the main port city of Guayaquil, DW reported on April 3.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 17:04 GMT
China: Ma Xingrui Investigated, Most Politburo Members Purged Since 1977
Beijing is investigating Ma Xingrui, a Politburo member and former Party secretary of Xinjiang province, for "serious violations of discipline and law," a euphemism for corruption or political disloyalty, Chinese state news outlet Xinhua announced on April 3.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 17:03 GMT
Kenya: Government To Prioritize Local Processing in Tender for Major Critical Mineral Project
Kenyan Cabinet Secretary for Mines Ali Hassan Joho said Kenyan authorities would prioritize bidders that give "Kenya the best deal on beneficiation" in allocating the tender to develop the country's Mrima Hill mining project, the Financial Times reported on April 3.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 16:59 GMT
Rwanda: Kagame Lambasts Congo Over Collaboration With FDLR, Pouring Cold Water on 2025 Peace Deal
Rwandan President Paul Kagame accused the Congolese military of maintaining an "intense" collaboration with the extremist Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, in a March 26 interview published by Jeune Afrique on April 3.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 16:52 GMT
Iran: Tehran Preparing Protocol for Overseeing Strait of Hormuz
Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Iran was drafting a protocol to oversee the Strait of Hormuz along with Oman, even during peacetime, though there are few available details of what this protocol would entail, The New York Times reported on April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 15:34 GMT
Israel, Egypt: Israel Resumes Operations at Leviathan Gas Field, Restarting Exports to Egypt
Israel resumed operations at the Leviathan gas field -- Israel's largest -- for the first time since Israel's energy minister ordered the field to suspend operations due to security risks caused by the Feb. 28 start of the Iran conflict, Bloomberg reported on April 3.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 3, 2026 | 15:30 GMT
Myanmar's Government Transitions to Civilian Rule in Name Only
Myanmar's nominal shift to civilian governance will entrench military control under a democratic facade while sustaining a protracted territorial stalemate, enabling limited regional engagement but leaving the civil war fundamentally unresolved.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 14:51 GMT
Israel, Gaza: Hamas Wants Israeli Troops To Withdraw Before Disarmament
The Palestinian militant group Hamas continues to insist on a guarantee that Israeli troops will withdraw from Gaza before disarmament talks proceed, reinforcing the group's long-standing demand that Israel eventually abandon Gaza in order to end the nearly three-year-old war, Reuters reported on April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 21:06 GMT
U.S., Iran: U.S. Attacks Iranian Bridge, Iran Hits Oracle Data Center in Dubai
The U.S. military attacked Iran's B1 bridge, which connects Tehran with a suburb and was allegedly used to transport missiles, resulting in its partial collapse and reportedly killing eight people, Axios reported on April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 21:01 GMT
U.S.: Trump Orders Changes to Steel, Copper and Aluminum Tariff Regime, Authorizes New Pharmaceutical Tariffs
In two separate presidential proclamations signed April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered changes to U.S. steel, copper and aluminum tariffs that would simplify the regime for low metal content goods and authorized new tariffs of up to 100% on certain imported pharmaceuticals.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 19:34 GMT
U.S., Venezuela: Washington Removes Sanctions on Interim President Rodriguez
The United States lifted sanctions on interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez, the U.S. Treasury Department announced on its website on April 1.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 19:31 GMT
Bolivia, U.S.: Countries Resume Joint Anti-Drug Investigations
Bolivia's Vice Minister of Social Defense and Controlled Substances Ernesto Justiniano said during an interview that Bolivia and the United States have resumed joint anti-drug trafficking investigations for the first time since 2008, when a diplomatic spat halted cooperation, AFP reported on April 1.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 16:28 GMT
New Zealand, Cook Islands: Countries Sign Defense and Security Declaration
New Zealand and the Cook Islands signed a defense and security declaration, reaffirming New Zealand as the Cook Islands' primary security partner, Bloomberg reported April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 16:22 GMT
Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok To Unilaterally Scrap Maritime Boundary Deal
The new Thai government under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said it will unilaterally cancel its 2001 maritime boundary memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Cambodia, the Bangkok Post reported April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 16:21 GMT
Mozambique: Government Reiterates Plans for IMF Deal After Early Debt Repayment
The Mozambican government confirmed that it would continue working with the International Monetary Fund to secure a new support program, Bloomberg reported on April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 15:31 GMT
U.S.: Artemis II Launch Brings Moon Back Into View
NASA successfully launched its Space Launch System rocket with the Orion capsule carrying four astronauts on the Artemis II lunar mission on April 1.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 2, 2026 | 15:05 GMT
New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout
Nepal's newly elected government faces the immediate challenge of managing energy and economic shocks from the ongoing Iran war. In the longer term, it will face enduring popular pressure to improve living conditions and reform the unstable political system. On March 27, Nepal's president swore in former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah as the country's new prime minister, a day after the president swore in lawmakers elected in the country's March 5 general elections. Citizens voted overwhelmingly for the four-year-old Rastriya Swatantra Party, or RSP, in the country's March 5 polls -- Nepal's first since September 2025 anti-government protests helped oust then-Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and his government. The RSP won 182 of 275 parliamentary seats, the largest single-party majority since the country abolished its monarchy in 2008, allowing it to govern without additional partners. The party's unprecedented victory and rebuke of the political establishment underscored the severity of popular
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