AssessmentsApr 4, 2026 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsApr 3, 2026 | 19:24 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 17:04 GMT
China: Ma Xingrui Investigated, Most Politburo Members Purged Since 1977
Beijing is investigating Ma Xingrui, a Politburo member and former Party secretary of Xinjiang province, for "serious violations of discipline and law," a euphemism for corruption or political disloyalty, Chinese state news outlet Xinhua announced on April 3.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 17:03 GMT
Kenya: Government To Prioritize Local Processing in Tender for Major Critical Mineral Project
Kenyan Cabinet Secretary for Mines Ali Hassan Joho said Kenyan authorities would prioritize bidders that give "Kenya the best deal on beneficiation" in allocating the tender to develop the country's Mrima Hill mining project, the Financial Times reported on April 3.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2026 | 16:49 GMT
Australia: Cyclone Narelle Disrupts LNG and Mining at Inopportune Time
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle struck the state of Western Australia, making landfall four separate times in recent days, disrupting major liquefied natural gas export facilities, including those operated by Chevron and Woodside Energy, which remain partially offline, with repairs at key sites projected to take weeks, the Financial Times reported on April 3.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 3, 2026 | 15:30 GMT
Myanmar's Government Transitions to Civilian Rule in Name Only
Myanmar's nominal shift to civilian governance will entrench military control under a democratic facade while sustaining a protracted territorial stalemate, enabling limited regional engagement but leaving the civil war fundamentally unresolved.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 19:31 GMT
Bolivia, U.S.: Countries Resume Joint Anti-Drug Investigations
Bolivia's Vice Minister of Social Defense and Controlled Substances Ernesto Justiniano said during an interview that Bolivia and the United States have resumed joint anti-drug trafficking investigations for the first time since 2008, when a diplomatic spat halted cooperation, AFP reported on April 1.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 16:28 GMT
New Zealand, Cook Islands: Countries Sign Defense and Security Declaration
New Zealand and the Cook Islands signed a defense and security declaration, reaffirming New Zealand as the Cook Islands' primary security partner, Bloomberg reported April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 2, 2026 | 15:31 GMT
U.S.: Artemis II Launch Brings Moon Back Into View
NASA successfully launched its Space Launch System rocket with the Orion capsule carrying four astronauts on the Artemis II lunar mission on April 1.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 2, 2026 | 15:05 GMT
New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout
Nepal's newly elected government faces the immediate challenge of managing energy and economic shocks from the ongoing Iran war. In the longer term, it will face enduring popular pressure to improve living conditions and reform the unstable political system. On March 27, Nepal's president swore in former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah as the country's new prime minister, a day after the president swore in lawmakers elected in the country's March 5 general elections. Citizens voted overwhelmingly for the four-year-old Rastriya Swatantra Party, or RSP, in the country's March 5 polls -- Nepal's first since September 2025 anti-government protests helped oust then-Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and his government. The RSP won 182 of 275 parliamentary seats, the largest single-party majority since the country abolished its monarchy in 2008, allowing it to govern without additional partners. The party's unprecedented victory and rebuke of the political establishment underscored the severity of popular
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 2, 2026 | 14:57 GMT
A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China
The current rift in Japan-China relations has deep roots and will likely last for the duration of the Takaichi administration, portending industrial disruptions in Japan, and Tokyo leaning into supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 1, 2026 | 19:13 GMT
Afghanistan, Pakistan: Delegations Meet in Northern China To Negotiate Potential Ceasefire
Afghan and Pakistani officials met in northern China to negotiate a ceasefire to more durably end Afghanistan and Pakistan's weeks-long cross-border clashes, AP reported on April 1, citing two unnamed Pakistani officials.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 1, 2026 | 19:10 GMT
Japan: Takaichi Nearly Dispatched Navy to Strait of Hormuz, Sentaku Claims
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had decided to dispatch Japan's navy to the Strait of Hormuz to join a U.S.-led escort mission, until close advisor Imai Takaya dissuaded her from doing so prior to her March 18-20 trip to Washington, according to Japanese tabloid Sentaku's April issue.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 1, 2026 | 18:09 GMT
The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire
The effort by Taiwan's opposition leader to revive talks with China will likely produce modest economic benefits, hurt the party's electoral prospects and not significantly alter U.S. policy on Taiwan, though talks could also paradoxically increase the chance of military conflict in the coming years. China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) announced on March 30 that the chairwoman of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, Cheng Li-wun, would visit China from April 7-12 at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. TAO Chair Song Tao said the visit will involve stops in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing. That same day, Cheng held a press conference on the matter, accepting the invitation and pledging to uphold the KMT's policy of "adhering to the 1992 Consensus and opposing Taiwan independence," saying these policies would help avoid war. She also spoke of the efforts of current KMT elder and former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou from
READ MORESituation ReportApr 1, 2026 | 16:59 GMT
Congo: U.S. Company Takes Over Cobalt and Copper Producer
U.S. mining company Virtus Minerals acquired copper and cobalt mining company Chemaf, which operates in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, after securing approval from Congolese authorities, The Wall Street Journal reported on March 31.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 1, 2026 | 16:50 GMT
U.S., Iran, UAE: U.S. Deploys Additional Assets, UAE May Participate in Strait of Hormuz Operation
The USS George H.W. Bush deployed to the Middle East on March 31 along with three destroyers and around 6,000 sailors, AP reported on April 1.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 1, 2026 | 16:44 GMT
Hungary's Upcoming Elections May Unseat Orban After 16 Years
Hungary's upcoming parliamentary elections could put a pro-EU government in power after more than a decade of euroskeptic, nationalist rule under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, but the Fidesz party's entrenched control over national institutions and legal levers would still significantly constrain reforms and could even enable the party to obstruct the transition of power altogether.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 31, 2026 | 17:02 GMT
How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold
The United States will boost defense and economic cooperation, leverage development finance and make military and economic threats to pressure Latin American governments to favor U.S. interests and counter China, but outcomes will vary depending on their economic reliance and ideological affinity with Washington. On March 7, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted 12 ideologically aligned Latin American leaders at the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Florida. The event created a coalition to fight drug trafficking with military means and counter "hostile foreign influence" in the Western Hemisphere. It marked a new step in Washington's efforts to formally establish U.S. primacy in the region by limiting rivals' influence (especially from China, Russia and Iran), rewarding aligned governments, expanding security partnerships and securing U.S. firms' access to critical material supply chains. The summit was the latest example of the White House's enforcement of a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine (dubbed
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsMar 31, 2026 | 15:48 GMT
The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the global energy sector, and it is, for all intents and purposes, closed. Only a trickle of crude oil, natural gas, petrochemicals, helium and fertilizers is transiting the strait amid safety concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has entered its second month. While over the last decade many people -- myself included -- have argued that data is the new oil, this crisis is proving that black gold remains one of the most critical resources worldwide. And the impacts don't stop there. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing not just an energy crisis, but far-reaching shortages of natural resources and critical raw materials on which the global economy depends. These compounding crises are exposing the flaws in a global economic system that relies on a key post-Cold War assumption: resource supply chains will not be severed.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 30, 2026 | 19:06 GMT
China, Philippines, Vietnam: Beijing Sends Needed Fuel as South China Sea Talks Resume
Chinese tankers delivered more than 260,000 barrels of diesel to the Philippines and about 100,000 barrels of distillates to Vietnam on March 28-29, Bloomberg reported on March 29.
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