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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 20:21 GMT
Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China
China's efforts to rein in unsustainable investment in the infrastructure and real estate sector will not lead to a systemic financial crisis, but broader reforms aimed at substantially reducing excess savings or creating more profitable investment opportunities that would help rebalance the economy toward more sustainable medium-term growth will remain unlikely in the coming years. Chinese economic policymakers have been seeking to rein in unsustainable investment in infrastructure and the real estate sector amid macro-financial risks caused by a very high savings rate in the context of a declining profitability of investment. The very structure of Chinese investment, which is concentrated in infrastructure and housing, is generating declining and increasingly negative financial returns. A declining profitability of investment is to be expected, as China approaches the technological frontier and the marginal productivity of capital declines, and as highly profitable investment projects become scarcer. The recurring misallocation of capital or overinvestment
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 09:00 GMT
2024 Elections: The European Union
Opinion polls suggest the June 9 European Parliament election will see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 15, 2024 | 18:57 GMT
Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China
The recent summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicates the indispensability of the expanding Japan-U.S. defense partnership to both countries' Asia-Pacific policy agendas and the secondary nature of the United States' ties with South Korea, while new U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict. Biden and Kishida met on April 10 for an hour and a half in a closed-door meeting, followed by a joint press conference at the White House and a state dinner for Kishida and his wife later that night. A joint statement later released by both sides explored the geopolitical, industrial, and defense content of the meeting. On the geopolitical side, much ink was spilled affirming ideological common ground, including a free and open international order; opposing Chinese efforts to change the territorial status
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 12, 2024 | 15:25 GMT
Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 2: Charting the Path
Despite an uncertain outlook amid structural limitations and recent economic headwinds, green hydrogen may help accelerate the European Union's decarbonization and strengthen its energy security while bringing profound global economic and geopolitical implications. In recent years, a global energy crisis, supply chain disruptions, high inflation and rising borrowing costs have driven up costs for new green hydrogen projects and reduced the impact of government support, while a recent fall in natural gas prices has widened the cost gap between green and fossil fuels-based hydrogen. Meanwhile, there is still some degree of regulatory uncertainty in Europe and North America, resulting in lengthy time lags between the announcement of support schemes and the actual disbursement of funds to project developers. As a result, only a fraction of newly announced green hydrogen initiatives currently reach a final investment decision. Moreover, most government action has so far focused on supporting production rather than increasing
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 8, 2024 | 19:21 GMT
What To Watch for During the Inaugural U.S.-Japan-Philippines Summit
A trilateral partnership between the United States, Japan and the Philippines focusing on cyberdefense, joint maritime patrols and supply chain resilience will likely help improve freedom of navigation and economic security in the South China Sea, but it may also raise the risk of trade disputes and conflict with China. U.S. President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a state visit on April 10, followed by a trilateral summit on April 11 where Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will also be present. The trilateral summit between the United States, the Philippines and Japan will be the first of its kind and will focus on three main areas: national security, economic security and mitigating climate change, with an eye toward institutionalizing cooperation via formal dialogue mechanisms in the medium-to-long term. The summit will likely conclude with the issuance of a joint vision statement laying out each country's
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2024 | 18:58 GMT
U.S.: Cyber Review Board Faults Microsoft for Chinese Hack of Government Emails
The U.S. Cyber Safety Review Board issued a report detailing U.S. technology company Microsoft's failures, including poor cybersecurity, lax corporate culture and a lack of transparency, that led to a breach of U.S. government email systems first discovered in June 2023, The Washington Post reported on April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 25, 2024 | 17:14 GMT
Yemen: Houthis Target Chinese-Owned Oil Tanker in Red Sea, Despite Recent Agreement
Yemen's Houthi rebels targeted Chinese-owned oil tanker Huang Pu in the Red Sea on March 23 with four anti-ship ballistic missiles, one of which struck the ship and caused slight damage but no casualties, The National reported on March 24.
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 23, 2024 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Senegalese Presidential Elections, Xi Meets With U.S. CEOs
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 20, 2024 | 19:25 GMT
Malaysia's Place in the Race for Semiconductor Business
Malaysia's success in attracting investment for the final stages of the semiconductor production process will likely continue in the coming years, but its push to move up the value chain will prove challenging amid labor shortages and rising U.S.-China tensions. In recent months, industry leaders from the United States such as Intel, NVIDIA, Texas Instruments, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Micron and Hewlett Packard have committed billions of dollars to establishing or expanding their presence in Malaysia, many of them with a focus on the chip industry. The phenomenon goes beyond U.S companies, as Infineon (Germany), Bosch (Germany), AT&S (Austria), Ericsson (Sweden) and Simmtech (South Korea) are likewise rushing to the country, with much of this activity taking place in the past 18 months. In 2023, Malaysia became the top exporter of semiconductors to the United States. Chinese companies -- particularly those that make machinery for semiconductor manufacturing -- are also
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 8, 2024 | 21:17 GMT
As the Dust Settles at Home, Bangladesh Turns Its Attention to Foreign Policy
As socio-political turbulence dies down, Bangladesh will focus on deepening its economic and diplomatic ties with the United States, India, Japan and China, to facilitate investment and infrastructure agreements. Following weeks of social and political turbulence between late 2023 and early 2024, the degree of opposition protests and political unrest has stabilized in Bangladesh, enabling the government to pursue its foreign policy goals. In Bangladesh's Jan. 7 election, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina clinched her fourth consecutive term and fifth overall, with the ruling Awami League (AL) party securing nearly 75% of the seats. Despite initial concerns over potential post-election unrest, protests have waned following the detention and crackdown on numerous activists and leaders of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The electoral process was marred by protests and boycotts from the BNP, which accused the AL of rigging the vote. As a result, in the lead-up to the general election,
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 7, 2024 | 19:54 GMT
The Significance of Australia and Vietnam's Move to Upgrade Relations
The economic component of Vietnam and Australia's upgraded partnership will help Vietnam achieve its green energy ambitions and grant Australia greater access to one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing markets, while the defense component portends increased bilateral cooperation on efforts aimed at improving maritime security in the region. Australia and Vietnam upgraded their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Vietnam's top-tier diplomatic designation, on March 7. The upgrade occurred after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met bilaterally following an Australia-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, which ran from March 4-6. This development also follows a memorandum of understanding on energy and mineral cooperation that Australia and Vietnam signed at the same venue on March 6.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 26, 2024 | 20:43 GMT
The Challenges Facing Pakistan's New Government
With the help of the military, Pakistan's new government will prioritize negotiating a deal with the International Monetary Fund and addressing the country's economic and political crisis by cracking down on dissent. But the coalition's internal fragmentation and unpopularity will hinder its reform efforts, exacerbated by election-related unrest. According to the Pakistani constitution, President Arif Alvi must summon the National Assembly by Feb. 29 to commence the inauguration of the lawmakers who were elected in the country's inconclusive general ballot on Feb. 8, where no single party secured a majority. Shortly after the election, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and other minor parties, including the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), agreed to establish a coalition government. Meanwhile, the coalition of independent candidates affiliated with former Prime Minister Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in conjunction with the minority Sunni Ittehad Council Political Party, have indicated they would assume
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 26, 2024 | 16:47 GMT
Libya: Oil Guards Shut Down Wafa Oil Field and Greenstream Gas Pipeline to Italy
The Libyan Petroleum Facilities Guards, or PFG, announced the "closure of all oil fields and ports" throughout the country following a 10-day ultimatum to the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, or GNU, to increase their salaries, Alwasat News reported on Feb. 25.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 20, 2024 | 21:06 GMT
The Window Is Closing for the EU's Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Law
The window of opportunity for the European Union to approve a due diligence directive that would increase costs, paperwork and liability risks for large companies operating in the bloc is quickly closing, which means the plan could be severely watered down or abandoned completely. A plan to implement a Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD, or CS3D) in the European Union is generating significant controversy, as it would require large companies in the bloc to screen their supply chains for environmental and human rights violations. EU member states were supposed to vote on the directive on Feb. 9, but the meeting was postponed after the German government announced it would abstain. Negotiators from EU member states and the European Parliament had reached a preliminary agreement on the CS3D on Dec. 14, but Berlin withdrew its support after the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), part of Germany's coalition government, criticized the plan
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 19, 2024 | 14:00 GMT
The Modern Geopolitics of Russia
For much of its history, Russia has been a quintessential geopolitical great power, and it arguably remains so today. Russia's power stems from its vast territory and geography, which spans 11 time zones and possesses large reserves of nearly every strategic resource. The country's amassment of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world has only solidified great power status in more recent decades.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 15, 2024 | 21:24 GMT
Russian Nuclear Capabilities in Space Could Threaten the World's Satellites
If confirmed, rumors that Russia intends to use nuclear weapons against satellites would force the West, China and commercial companies to come up with protective measures, while Washington and Beijing would also need to adapt their deterrence strategies vis-a-vis Moscow. The chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, said on Feb. 14 that he and other members of Congress had received new intelligence from the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden regarding a ''serious national security threat.'' While he declined to provide more information, he called on the Biden administration to declassify the intelligence to enable Washington to better coordinate with its allies on the matter. According to subsequent reporting by several U.S. media outlets, the threat appears to be related to Russia's development of nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. However, reporting on the device's type is inconsistent, as at least one reputable U.S. media
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsFeb 15, 2024 | 16:37 GMT
Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?
In 2024, a series of presidential and parliamentary elections will determine the political direction of countries accounting for roughly 40% of the world's population and about half of its GDP. While each of these elections will be different, many of them will see nationalist parties perform strongly thanks to a rhetoric that seeks to mitigate (and in some cases reverse) the effects of globalization. Some of these parties and leaders promote protectionism to shield domestic industries from foreign competition, others are critical of international organizations that they perceive as undermining national sovereignty, and many present immigration as a threat to national identity, security and job opportunities for their country's native populations. Considering the combined economic weight of the countries holding votes this year and the underlying socio-economic trends behind the anti-globalization sentiments, a question comes to mind: how will these elections impact the evolution of globalization in the short-to-medium term?
READ MORESituation ReportFeb 8, 2024 | 18:06 GMT
Tanzania, Zambia: China Proposes $1B Railway Refurbishment
China's Ambassador to Zambia Du Xiaohui presented a $1 billion plan to revamp a railway connecting Zambia's copper mines with Tanzania's port of Dar es Salaam, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 7.
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