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AssessmentsNov 3, 2025 | 22:37 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.
President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years
China's policy plan for 2026-2030 lays out continuity in economic policy but also highlights an intent to pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, launch internal anti-corruption probes to enforce President Xi Jinping's policy vision, and use lawfare amid foreign disputes. On Oct. 28, China's State Council published the details of the Chinese Communist Party's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) for National Economic and Social Development, which was passed at the CCP's recent Fourth Plenum in Beijing from Oct. 20-23. The document charts China's policy trajectory from 2026-2030, but it is mainly thematic and qualitative in nature, lacking many of the quantitative targets that China's rubber-stamp legislature will unveil at its annual meeting in March 2026. Still, the document reflects the policy priorities of the CCP and, thus, those of China's central government. It also offers a rare glimpse into the worldview of China's leadership, particularly
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China
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
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United States
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsOct 30, 2025 | 18:10 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.
China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely
The U.S.-China talks in South Korea produced a framework deal favorable to China, with future trade war escalations likely over the next year as Washington and Beijing seek to enforce their own interpretations of the new measures. On Oct. 30, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade matters in Busan, South Korea. They announced that the United States will reduce its 20% fentanyl tariff on China to 10%, in exchange for Chinese cooperation on curbing the flow of fentanyl precursor exports. The United States will also forgo its previously threatened 100% additional tariff on China, and has agreed to pause its Section 301 investigation into Chinese shipping, which presumably includes suspending hefty U.S. fees on China-built, -operated or -owned vessels. The U.S. Commerce Department's decision to target all majority-owned subsidiaries of Entity List companies will be suspended for one year as well. China, for
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United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 15:05 GMT
Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.
Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain
After years of stagnation, the German economy will receive a boost from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure, but a failure to implement flanking structural reform will mean that the boost to medium-term economic growth will be limited. In recent weeks, numerous media reports have cast doubt on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ambitious plans to reform the economy. Since taking office in May after forming a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority between his center-right Christian Democratic Union or CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party or SPD, Merz's government has reformed the constitutionally mandated limits on government deficits and has committed to significant increases in defense expenditure and infrastructure, especially of transport. The new government has also agreed to implement reforms aimed at reducing growth-impeding bureaucratic rules governing product markets and infrastructure investment. However, despite these goals, thus far intra-coalition disagreements have translated into more limited practical results
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Germany
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 27, 2025 | 15:07 GMT
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.
Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in Gaza in an effort to reduce the likelihood of being unseated by a right-wing anti-Netanyahu coalition led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party has seen an uptick in support following the Oct. 8 announcement of the first phase of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire and the Oct. 13 release of all 20 remaining living hostages. Prior to the ceasefire agreement, most polls conducted in the second half of September showed Likud winning around 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset if parliamentary elections due by October 2026 were conducted now. More recently, according to a poll published on Oct. 16 by Zman Yisrael, Likud would win 34 seats and its likely coalition partners a further 25, bringing the total to 59 -- just short of the 61 needed to
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 24, 2025 | 16:19 GMT
A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.
Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks
Turkey will likely initially use diplomatic and political pressure to weaken Northern Cyprus's attempts to restart what are likely to be difficult federalization talks with the Republic of Cyprus. Should they nonetheless advance, an escalation to economic pressure could instead strengthen Northern Cyprus's drive for federalization in the coming years. On Oct. 19, the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus held a presidential election that resulted in the victory of Republican Turkish Party (CTP) head Tufan Erhurman, a center-left candidate who supports resuming federalization talks with the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus after a prolonged suspension of negotiations. Erhurman secured 62% of the vote, achieving a decisive victory over incumbent Ersin Tartar of the National Unity Party (UBP), who had rejected federalization talks and advocated for a two-state solution to the decades-long division of the island between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Two days after the vote, Devlet Bahceli, a Nationalist
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Turkey
Cyprus
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportOct 21, 2025 | 16:17 GMT
Turkey, Cyprus: Erdogan Advisor Pressures Northern Cyprus After Presidential Election
Devlet Bahceli, a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, warned the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus against resuming talks on establishing a two-state federation on the divided island, saying annexation by Turkey was "inevitable" and calling for Northern Cyprus' parliament to declare the recent presidential election results invalid, Bianet reported on Oct. 21.
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Turkey
Cyprus
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 17, 2025 | 20:31 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other senior government members and deputies attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 8, 2025, in Beijing, China.
What To Watch for During China's Fourth Plenum
The Chinese government's fourth plenum will reveal its next five-year plan, elucidating economic and security objectives; it will likely also update Beijing's indigenous industrialization plans and fill the thinned ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, giving insights into future policy priorities and the trajectory of President Xi Jinping's political purges. China's Central Committee (CC), the national decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), will hold its fourth plenum from Oct. 20-23. In its five-year tenure, each CC holds seven plenums, with this fourth plenum set to discuss China's 15th five-year plan. Each five-year plan is a policy document that roughly outlines the CCP's top economic, security and political priorities for China, with this latest iteration covering 2026-2030. Though the full details will not be published until China's ''Two Sessions'' rubber-stamp legislative meetings in March 2026, the CCP usually publishes a proposal containing the broad policy contours and ideological framing
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China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsOct 13, 2025 | 15:36 GMT
Russian flag on a cracked wall, illustrating an economic decline with a downward arrow.
Russia's War Economy Is Faltering
The Russian economy is entering a multi-year stagnation that, while enabling the Kremlin to sustain the war effort over the next 12 months, will steadily erode the fiscal, industrial and technological foundations required to keep fighting at current intensity beyond 2026. On Oct. 7, the World Bank released its ''Fall 2025 Economic Update,'' which projects that Russian real GDP growth will decline from 4.3% in 2024 to 0.9% this year, 0.8% in 2026 and just 1% in 2027. The report describes a war-distorted economy in which tight monetary policy, shrinking private credit and labor shortages have stalled civilian production and only defense orders keep output artificially afloat. The Russian economy's non-defense activity has contracted, consumption has slowed and investment has fallen under high borrowing costs. With military spending at a record high and a drop of 17% in oil revenues, the federal budget deficit grew to 1.7% of GDP in
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Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
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