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AssessmentsMar 26, 2026 | 18:11 GMT
Cars drive past a gas station in Ponte Leccia on the French Mediterranean island of Corsica on March 26, 2026.
How the EU Is Responding to Its Latest Energy Crisis
While Gulf oil and gas supply disruptions are driving higher and more volatile energy prices in Europe, EU-wide market interventions remain unlikely, leaving a fragmented patchwork of national relief measures that will only partially shield households and industry, and although Europe will avoid physical shortages, high prices will continue to weigh on industrial competitiveness and economic growth.
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Iran
Europe
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 26, 2026 | 15:10 GMT
The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?
With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.
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United States
Bahrain
Iran
Israel
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMar 23, 2026 | 16:27 GMT
U.K.: Starmer Calls Emergency Meeting Amid Economic and Energy Disruptions Linked to Iran Conflict
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed to consider "every available" measure to cushion the United Kingdom from the impact of the Middle East conflict ahead of an emergency Cabinet meeting he convened for March 23 to address the economic consequences of the escalating war in Iran and energy market disruptions stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported the same day.
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Iran
United Kingdom
Economics
Energy
Politics
AssessmentsMar 20, 2026 | 15:08 GMT
People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.
Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot
The Gulf Cooperation Council states will shift their economic strategies to domestic and core regional interests as a result of the Iran war, with a renewed focus on domestic infrastructure, safety nets and strategies for comparative advantage to help them recover some of the attractiveness lost during the war. This is likely to impact international investments, long-term domestic projects and reshape their economic links. GCC member states face varying degrees of economic impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and accompanying Iran war that began Feb. 28. According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, a two-month closure could cause loss of up to 14% GDP for Qatar and Kuwait and 3-5% GDP for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2026. However, such estimates are preliminary and do not fully account for potential future damage to regional infrastructure, the possibility of food and fuel shocks pushing up the costs
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United States
Bahrain
Iran
Israel
Kuwait
Oman
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 17, 2026 | 18:55 GMT
Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021.
Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?
Rwanda is unlikely to press ahead with a complete troop withdrawal from Mozambique for the foreseeable future, but the European Union's refusal to provide fresh funding would raise the prospect of a partial drawdown of Rwandan forces that would portend rising security risks in the northern Cabo Delgado province and could prompt Maputo to expand counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. On March 14, Rwandan Foreign Affairs Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said the Rwandan government was ready to withdraw its troops from Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province, where they are stationed to combat a jihadist insurgency, if Kiagli's "efforts and achievements [were] not appreciated." This came after Bloomberg reported on March 12 that funding from the European Union for Rwanda's military deployment in Cabo Delgado is set to expire in May and that EU officials have not yet planned any discussions on a possible renewal. Prior to the Bloomberg report, the
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Mozambique
Rwanda
Energy
Military & Security
Situation ReportMar 11, 2026 | 16:57 GMT
MENA: Iran Threatens Financial Institutions, Banks and Technology Companies
Iran threatened to expand its target set to include U.S. and Israeli-linked banks and financial institutions throughout the Middle East after U.S. and Israeli strikes attacked a Tehran branch of Bank Sepah, which has links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and also threatened to target U.S. technology companies, such as Amazon, Microsoft and Palantir, in the region, Reuters reported on March 11.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 10, 2026 | 15:54 GMT
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil talks to the media before the start of an Eurogroup ministers meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 9, 2026.
A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles
While the European Union will make incremental progress on a capital markets union (CMU) in the coming years, a fully unified market remains unlikely in the short to medium term, which will limit immediate reductions in financing costs and strategic autonomy but will gradually improve access to capital, market efficiency and resilience for European businesses over time. In recent months, efforts by the European Union to advance its long-standing CMU project have gained renewed urgency amid rising geopolitical risk, weak economic growth and mounting pressure to improve financing conditions for European businesses. Most recently, in a Feb. 19 interview with The Wall Street Journal, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated the need to establish a CMU to lower financing costs for European companies and increase European competitiveness. The CMU seeks to create a single, integrated capital market across all EU member states by harmonizing rules and legislation to facilitate
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Europe
Economics
Situation ReportMar 10, 2026 | 15:20 GMT
MENA: Trump Says Iran War To End Soon, But Bombing Continues Throughout the Region
U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran war is "very complete, pretty much" and also said he is considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz to enable maritime shipping -- especially oil exports -- to resume and threatened greater retaliation against Iran if it tried to stop oil shipments, AP reported on March 9.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 9, 2026 | 15:11 GMT
Jordanian Armed Forces, U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces and other international forces conduct a combined Arms Live Fire Exercise on May 23, 2024 in the desert near Azraq, Jordan.
Jordan Likely To Step Up Anti-Islamic State, Countersmuggling Operations in Syria
The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria will likely pressure Jordan to expand security support to Syria to combat challenges including the Islamic State and arms and drug smuggling. Jordan is likely to conduct at least sporadic airstrikes when Syria is unable or unwilling to effectively mitigate threats. Over the next two months, the United States is expected to fully withdraw the roughly 1,000 troops remaining in Syria, continuing the drawdown begun in 2025. In mid-February, U.S. forces handed over operations of the al-Tanf Base near Syria's borders with Jordan and Iraq to Syrian forces. Days later, U.S. troops also transferred control of the al-Shaddadi Base in Syria's northeast. While some U.S. forces withdrew to Jordan, where the United States maintains a robust military presence at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (MSAB), the government in Amman remains concerned about cross-border threats from Syria. However, the outbreak of war with Iran on
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMar 6, 2026 | 19:33 GMT
Kenya: Lawmakers Pass Bill Setting Up Infrastructure Fund Aiming To Mobilize Close to $40B
Kenya's National Assembly approved the government's National Infrastructure Fund bill, which aims to mobilize 5 trillion Kenyan shillings ($38.7 billion) in public and private sector investments into a national infrastructure fund, or NIF, to support the construction of development projects such as transport, energy and digital infrastructure, The Kenya Times reported on March 6.
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Kenya
Economics
Politics
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