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AssessmentsDec 2, 2024 | 21:12 GMT
Rebel fighters pose for a picture on a tank on a road leading to Syria's northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 30, 2024.
Syria's Frozen Civil War Heats Up As Rebels Seize Aleppo
Rapid rebel advances in northern Syria will expand the civil war into further factionalism, threaten Iranian supply lines to Lebanon, and eventually destabilize the Syrian government by exacerbating its economic and security challenges. On Nov. 30, the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham claimed control of Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, in a lightning advance against Syrian government forces. The insurgents and other associated militias continued their advance southward toward the Syrian city of Hama while also consolidating control of much of northern Syria, including taking territories previously held by Kurdish forces as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces. By Dec. 2, Syrian forces had dug in around Hama in an attempt to halt further rebel advances. Meanwhile, Russia increased the scale of its air campaign against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fighters now entrenched in Aleppo. Fighting also broke out elsewhere in the country, including in Damascus and Suwayda, though as of
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Syria
Economics
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 27, 2024 | 16:24 GMT
Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.
Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis
Despite threats to the de facto cease-fire in Yemen's civil war, economic vulnerabilities will likely constrain the Houthis while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continue to disengage from the conflict; a major escalation in fighting is thus unlikely, and even if the Houthis attack Gulf energy infrastructure, there would likely be space for de-escalation. Since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in Gaza in October 2023, Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi militants have attacked Israel and Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians. Over the past year, these attacks have garnered far more attention than the domestic and regional security threats generated by the Houthis' ongoing war in Yemen against the Saudi-backed coalition supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government. However, multiple events have threatened to escalate the conflict in Yemen, which has been in a de facto cease-fire since April 2022. In July 2024, the Houthis threatened to
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United States
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 26, 2024 | 18:08 GMT
Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah.
What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce
War-weariness has largely compelled Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day cease-fire agreement that will decrease hostilities on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, though periodic tit-for-tat attacks during the truce period could undermine the deal, reignite fighting and impede progress toward a permanent cease-fire. In the coming hours, Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are reportedly set to approve a 60-day truce that paves the way for an eventual permanent cease-fire between the two sides, which have been in conflict since September. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened with his security Cabinet on Nov. 26 to approve the agreement, while Lebanon's caretaker government will likely approve the deal on Nov. 27. U.S. President Joe Biden will probably announce the cease-fire after the Israeli security Cabinet approves it. Meanwhile, on Nov. 25-26, fighting remained ongoing on both sides of the border, with Israeli forces continuing to issue evacuation orders
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Israel
Lebanon
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
SnapshotsNov 18, 2024 | 17:23 GMT
Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.
U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles
The U.S. decision to allow Ukrainian strikes with Western weapons deeper inside Russia could increase attrition among the Russian army and prompt Moscow to respond with escalation, but will not stop Russian advances or fundamentally change the trajectory of the war. On Nov. 17, U.S. Joe President Biden authorized the first use of U.S. long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia. The first strikes with Army Tactical Missile System (commonly known as ATACMS missiles), which have a range of 190 miles (305 kilometers), will reportedly be carried out on Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region in the coming days. The move comes after months of deliberations among Western governments on the topic and Kremlin efforts to forestall a final decision, but reports the same day suggested the governments of France and Great Britain could follow suit by allowing the Ukrainian military to use SCALP/Storm Shadow air-launched
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United States
France
United Kingdom
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsNov 13, 2024 | 16:06 GMT
Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.
The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War
Efforts to resolve Sudan's conflict are hindered by competing international interests, making a peace deal unlikely and risking destabilization in neighboring South Sudan and Chad through ethnic violence and arms proliferation, while creating a power vacuum that could enable jihadist groups to exploit deteriorating socio-economic conditions. On Oct. 25, the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, or RSF, was accused of killing at least 124 people in a village in the east-central state of Gezira amid the group's ongoing conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF. The violent raid occurred after a high-ranking RSF officer surrendered to the SAF, which prompted the RSF to retaliate by killing and detaining civilians in his home area, displacing thousands of civilians in the process. These events are part of the larger civil war in Sudan that broke out on April 15, 2023, primarily driven by power struggles between two rival military factions: the
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South Sudan
Chad
Sudan
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 7, 2024 | 21:30 GMT
A billboard congratulating Donald Trump on his win in the U.S. presidential election is seen in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Nov. 7, 2024.
Israel's Far-Right Welcomes Trump's Return to the White House
With an impending second Trump administration shoring up U.S. relations, Israel's far-right will further advance their domestic and foreign agendas, from annexing and settling the West Bank and Gaza Strip to calling for more hawkish military campaigns against Iran and its proxies. Donald Trump's victory in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election was received warmly by Israel's current right-wing government, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling it a ''historic comeback'' and quickly congratulating Trump. Meanwhile, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir declared that Trump's election was an opportunity for Israel to finally annex the West Bank and restart settlements in the Gaza Strip. These comments came after weeks of Israeli speculation about how the U.S. presidential election might impact Israel against the backdrop of strained relations between Netanyahu and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, who have sparred over Israel's military actions in Gaza, Lebanon and elsewhere in the region.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsOct 30, 2024 | 20:29 GMT
People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.
The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula
In recent months, North and South Korea have taken a wide variety of actions along their shared border that have increasingly threatened a long-standing, if unsteady, peace on the Korean Peninsula. These include military provocations and propaganda initiatives that, alongside longer-term shifts in national doctrine related to inter-Korean relations, have removed impediments to escalation. The Koreans are, of course, no stranger to fears of war, with the Korean War never technically concluded and the border area serving as one of the most heavily armed peacetime regions in the world for decades. Still, the recent trajectory of events on the peninsula brings a higher chance for military clashes that, even though they are likely to be limited and not escalate to full-scale war, would accelerate the formation of defensive blocs in Asia and create geopolitical ripple effects far beyond the Korean Peninsula.
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North Korea
South Korea
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 22, 2024 | 21:24 GMT
A picture taken on Sept. 30, 2024, shows a fire over an area of southern Lebanon following an Israeli bombardment.
How Will the Israel-Hezbollah War Evolve?
Hezbollah and Israel are entering a new phase of conflict that will likely lead to a protracted war of attrition that, despite Israel's expanding ground and aerial campaign, favors Hezbollah in the long term if the group can tie down Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. On Oct. 20, Israeli fighter jets struck dozens of buildings across Lebanon, including in Beirut's suburbs, targeting branches of the Hezbollah-run bank Al-Qard Al-Hasan, hours after the Israeli military announced a new phase of targeting the Lebanese political and militant group's banks and financial infrastructure. The Israeli attacks came a day after Hezbollah launched three drones, one of which struck Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence in the central seaside town of Caesarea; Netanyahu and his wife were not at their residence at the time of the attack, but the drone strike marked the first time since the beginning of the war that a target
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Israel
Lebanon
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Situation ReportOct 18, 2024 | 19:38 GMT
North Korea, Russia, Ukraine: North Korean Forces Training in Russia To Participate in War With Ukraine
South Korea's National Intelligence Service confirmed North Korea decided to send four brigades with a total of 12,000 troops to support Russia in its war with Ukraine, adding that the North Korean forces had been issued Russian military uniforms, weapons and fake identification documents, Reuters reported on Oct. 18.
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North Korea
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsOct 11, 2024 | 18:47 GMT
A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024.
How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?
While Israel's invasion of Lebanon may initially boost domestic support for Hezbollah's fight against Israel, various Lebanese factions will probably become increasingly critical of the group as the war wears on, especially if Israeli troops advance and Hezbollah faces further setbacks, increasing the likelihood of localized violence between Hezbollah and its Lebanese rivals. Israel's Oct. 1 ground incursion in southern Lebanon threatens to weaken Hezbollah's domestic image further after the group failed to prevent Israel from infiltrating its ranks following the Sept. 27 assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and several other senior officials. However, even before Israeli ground troops began crossing into Lebanese territory, signs were mounting that Lebanese citizens would at least initially rally against an Israeli invasion. On Sept. 28, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati -- who heads Lebanon's severely paralyzed government -- called on Lebanese citizens to ''come together,'' saying ''our national responsibility at this historic
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Israel
Lebanon
Economics
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsOct 2, 2024 | 20:51 GMT
A topographic map of Iran.
Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance
Iran's once-vaunted ''Axis of Resistance'' has been decimated since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel -- something that is certainly going to lead Tehran to recalibrate its national security strategy. Israel's Sept. 27 assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah capped off a ten-day period in which Israel's military and intelligence apparatus killed virtually the entire leadership of Iran's most important regional ally, as well as destroyed much of its internal communications structure. While Iran responded with a 180-strong ballistic missile barrage on Israel on Oct. 1, the attack caused little damage and also demonstrated Iran's limited ability to harm Israel with its ballistic missile arsenal. The barrage was likely partially designed to reassure Hezbollah that Iran has its back, though much of the damage to Iran's Axis of Resistance has already been done and trust between Tehran and Hezbollah is reportedly low. And Israel's increasingly aggressive strategy against Iran and
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United States
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
SnapshotsSep 27, 2024 | 21:00 GMT
A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.
With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine
Russia's recently announced changes to its nuclear doctrine are unlikely to have much success in limiting Western support to Ukraine, but Russia remains unlikely to use nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future because its battlefield position and leverage over Ukraine will likely remain secure. On Sept. 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that, as the result of an inter-agency analysis, he was proposing several key changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine that would be imminently approved. Putin said the list of governments and alliances against which Russia exercises nuclear deterrence would be expanded, as would the list of threats that could warrant a nuclear response by Russia. Specifically, the Russian president announced that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state that was backed by a nuclear-armed country would now be considered a ''joint attack'' that could elicit the use of nuclear weapons. Additionally, Putin specified that Russia would consider deploying its
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Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsSep 27, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.
For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation
With the prospect of EU membership frozen for both countries, Serbia and Kosovo will be incentivized to escalate bilateral tensions in the coming months, which will increase the risk of security incidents in Kosovo, even if a full-on war remains highly unlikely. On Sept. 24, Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti demanded that Serbia's government hand over several Serbians who were allegedly involved in the killing of a Kosovar police officer a year ago. Kurti also accused Serbia of trying to annex parts of Kosovo and called on the international community to hold Serbia accountable for its aggressive behavior. Separately, in an interview with the Financial Times also published on Sept. 24, Kurti said that Kosovo will resist pressure from the international community to compromise with Serbia on the multiple issues that have fueled tensions between the two neighboring states.
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Serbia
Kosovo
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsSep 27, 2024 | 14:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Water
The Geopolitics of Water: Water Stress in Chile Threatens Agriculture and Mining
Rising water stress in Chile is increasing threats to the country's critical agriculture and mining sectors, while also stoking long-standing social tensions, but further successes in constructing desalination plants would bode well for the country's ability to stave off the most severe impacts of water insecurity. Over the last fifteen years, water scarcity in Chile has escalated dramatically, with a prolonged dry period known as a "megadrought" starting in 2010 and persisting as of 2024. The drought has reduced average rainfall across the country, from the northern Atacama Desert to the historically more water-secure southern Patagonia region. As of 2021, over half of the country's population of 19 million lived in areas facing severe water scarcity, and the same year approximately 8% of the population was found not to have access to drinking water, according to the Chilean Ministry of Social Development. These challenges are the result of climate change
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Chile
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
AssessmentsSep 26, 2024 | 15:32 GMT
A man in Beirut, Lebanon, holds a walkie-talkie after removing its battery on Sept. 18, 2024, during a funeral for people killed when hundreds of paging devices exploded across the country the previous day.
Israel's Pager Attack Renews Focus on Supply Chains' Physical Security
Few security services have the intent and capability to replicate Israel's unprecedented attacks against Hezbollah's electronics, but many will find new ways to physically tamper with devices for mass surveillance by exploiting the complexity of global supply chains, especially after devices' final assembly and with the help of insiders. On Sept. 17-18, Israel carried out a series of coordinated attacks targeting Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria, killing nearly 40 people and injuring over 3,000 others. Many details of the operation are still unclear, but a wide variety of media reporting indicates Israeli spies set up front companies to produce pagers and two-way radios containing a small amount of explosive material and a remote activation capability; these were then shipped to Hezbollah under the guise of legitimate products from reputable manufacturers. Israel allegedly began shipping the tampered devices in mid-2022, but sped up the deliveries in early 2024 after Hezbollah
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Israel
Lebanon
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
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