AssessmentsMar 14, 2026 | 15:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Takaichi Meets With Trump
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsMar 13, 2026 | 20:22 GMT
In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits
Despite the two countries' mutual defense agreement, Pakistan will likely avoid direct military intervention in support of Saudi Arabia against Iranian strikes and instead limit its role to defensive and technical support given the risk of Iranian retaliation, domestic sectarian tensions, economic pressures and Pakistan's ongoing conflict with the Afghan Taliban; yet a more active role from Islamabad remains possible if Iranian attacks were to seriously threaten Saudi energy infrastructure or the kingdom's broader stability. Following Iran's recent missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been coordinating closely in the context of their new mutual defense agreement, signed in September. On March 7, Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, met with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in Riyadh to discuss potential joint actions under the agreement, which stipulates that an attack on one country is considered an attack on both. Days later, on
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 13, 2026 | 20:04 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 13, 2026 | 16:34 GMT
Senegal: Sonko Lambasts BP Contract Amid Growing Resource Nationalism
Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko said a government review showed that British major BP's contract to develop the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim's natural gas project was unfair and "one-sided," Reuters reported on March 12.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 12, 2026 | 19:27 GMT
Azerbaijan, EU: Costa Visit Signals EU Bid To Bolster Azerbaijan Energy and Transit Role Amid Iran War Spillover
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev met European Council President Antonio Costa in Baku to discuss energy cooperation, regional security and EU-Azerbaijan relations, according to a readout published on the Azerbaijani presidential website on March 11.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 12, 2026 | 19:08 GMT
South Korea: Investment Bill To Prevent U.S. Tariff Hike for Now
South Korea's National Assembly passed a bill to carry out Seoul's pledge to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects, fulfilling a portion of the U.S.-South Korea trade deal signed in October 2025, Yonhap News Agency reported on March 12.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 12, 2026 | 16:44 GMT
Afghanistan, Pakistan: China's Mediation Facilitates Ease in Afghanistan-Pakistan Fighting
Three unnamed Pakistani officials said Chinese mediation in recent weeks has helped ease cross-border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with China's special envoy to Afghanistan shuttling between the warring countries for talks and China's President Xi Jinping recording a message in late February calling for the parties to halt their skirmishes, Reuters reported on March 12.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 12, 2026 | 16:28 GMT
Chile: Kast's Presidency Heralds Stricter Border Protection, Fiscal Discipline and U.S. Alignment
Far-right leader Jose Antonio Kast took office as Chile's president and promised an "emergency government" to fight crime and irregular migration to deliver order, liberty and justice to Chileans, El Pais reported on March 11.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 12, 2026 | 15:44 GMT
Mexico: Legislators Reject Electoral Reform in Government's First Congressional Defeat
Mexico's Chamber of Deputies rejected President Claudia Sheinbaum's proposed electoral reform on March 11, La Jornada reported the same day.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 11, 2026 | 20:51 GMT
Paraguay, U.S.: Lawmakers Approve New Defense Agreement With U.S.
Paraguay's Chamber of Deputies on March 10 approved a Status of Forces Agreement to allow the temporary presence of U.S. military personnel inside the country, with the agreement now awaiting the approval of President Santiago Pena, AP reported on March 11.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 11, 2026 | 18:54 GMT
India, China: India To Partially Ease FDI Scrutiny for China
On March 10, India eased rules for investments from countries with which it shares a land border, allowing automatic approval for non-controlling stakes of up to 10% with compliance requirements, and establishing a 60-day approval timeline for investments in sectors such as electronic components, rare earth magnets and wafers, Bloomberg reported on March 11.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 18:20 GMT
Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions
The Iran war risks fueling sectarian tensions in Bahrain and further straining its economy due to disruptions to energy and aluminum exports. Other Gulf countries may choose security and economic intervention to stabilize the country, with a financial package potentially conditioned on further fiscal consolidation efforts. Bahraini authorities have been cracking down on protesters and government critics following domestic protests after the Feb. 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. The protests, a rare instance of civil unrest in the kingdom, have involved at least hundreds of participants from the majority Shiite Bahrain population and extended to cities and villages throughout the country. While the majority of protests were peaceful, some protesters threw Molotov cocktails and clashed with Bahraini security forces, resulting in several dozen arrests. Although Bahraini authorities have limited publicity of the demonstrations, security forces' arrests and government measures
READ MORESituation ReportMar 11, 2026 | 16:55 GMT
Panama, China, U.S.: COSCO Suspends Activity in Panama Port Amid Geopolitical Dispute
China's state-owned shipping company COSCO suspended its services at a Panama Canal port that has been involved in a geopolitical dispute over the past year over its previous operation by a Hong Kong-based company, Bloomberg reported on March 11.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 15:46 GMT
The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships
Canada's push to deepen ties with India, Australia and Japan reflects an effort to reduce economic and security dependence on the United States, yet this plan faces varying constraints and any successes may ultimately strengthen the same U.S.-centered economic and security system Ottawa is trying to hedge against. From Feb. 27 to March 6, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India, Australia and Japan to expand economic, technological and security cooperation. During the trip, Canada and each of the three governments announced a range of initiatives covering trade negotiations, energy cooperation, investment coordination, critical minerals supply chains, defense dialogue and emerging technologies. In India, Carney met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to advance bilateral economic cooperation and launch new negotiations toward a comprehensive trade agreement, while also announcing commercial deals and new cooperation frameworks in energy, defense and technology. Carney then traveled to Australia, where he met with Prime Minister
READ MORESituation ReportMar 10, 2026 | 18:47 GMT
U.S., China: Old Grievances, Different Tactics and Goals Shape Trump-Xi Summit
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is focused on day-of negotiations and securing purchase agreements during his trip to China to meet with President Xi Jinping from March 31 to April 2, according to Semafor sources on March 10, while Xi's team wants terms finalized beforehand and is aiming for a broader deal with long-term investments.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 10, 2026 | 16:38 GMT
North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity
A key party meeting highlights a rare opportunity for North Korea to engage diplomatically with Russia and the United States, and to a lesser extent China and South Korea, to help overcome its economic isolation, though the low risk of military clashes on the peninsula will persist. On Feb. 26, North Korea's dominant Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) concluded its quinquennial Party Congress, which spanned seven days in Pyongyang. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was re-elected as general secretary of the WPK in an entirely predetermined voting process, ostensibly extending his already 14-year reign by another five years. Kim also replaced 52% of members of the WPK's Central Committee, the primary decision-making body for the party in the central government, along with 79% of alternate members, unusually high shares for a congress. Most of the replacements were technocrats and party members who rose up in the ranks of the WPK
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 10, 2026 | 15:54 GMT
A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles
While the European Union will make incremental progress on a capital markets union (CMU) in the coming years, a fully unified market remains unlikely in the short to medium term, which will limit immediate reductions in financing costs and strategic autonomy but will gradually improve access to capital, market efficiency and resilience for European businesses over time. In recent months, efforts by the European Union to advance its long-standing CMU project have gained renewed urgency amid rising geopolitical risk, weak economic growth and mounting pressure to improve financing conditions for European businesses. Most recently, in a Feb. 19 interview with The Wall Street Journal, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated the need to establish a CMU to lower financing costs for European companies and increase European competitiveness. The CMU seeks to create a single, integrated capital market across all EU member states by harmonizing rules and legislation to facilitate
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 9, 2026 | 20:39 GMT
U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism
Joint U.S.-Ecuador military operations meet strategic goals for both governments, despite the risk of political backlash in Ecuador, and they further demonstrate the Trump administration's intent to expand U.S. security operations to other Latin American countries as Washington's regional interventionism grows.
READ MORESituation ReportMar 9, 2026 | 20:16 GMT
U.S., Latin America: Shield of the Americas Summit Establishes Coalition To Combat Cartels
The United States hosted the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Doral, Florida, during which U.S. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation launching a coalition to combat drug cartels, The Guardian reported on March 7.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 7, 2026 | 13:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: War in the Middle East, U.S.-China Trade Talks
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORE