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AssessmentsMay 13, 2026 | 21:40 GMT
Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies
Revelations about UAE and Saudi strikes on Iran do not suggest a unified Gulf strategy against Tehran, with the Emiratis favoring a hawkish approach aligned with the Israelis and the Saudis favoring one of deterrence, a divergence that will leave the United Arab Emirates more exposed to future Iranian retaliation. On May 11, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates had conducted multiple strikes against Iran, including an April 8 attack on the country's Lavan Island, as the U.S.-imposed ceasefire was about to be enacted. A day later, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia had also conducted airstrikes on Iran in mid-March to try to convince Tehran to ease away from attacks on the kingdom. Emirati and Saudi officials have not publicly commented on the reports, but they were the first reputable confirmation of Gulf Arab military strikes in the course of the Iran war. The United Arab
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United States
Iran
Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Military & Security
AssessmentsMay 13, 2026 | 16:18 GMT
A digital illustration of the Turkish flag.
Turkey Pursues Tax Reforms Amid Economic Fallout From the Iran War
Turkey's proposed tax reforms should somewhat increase foreign currency inflows and medium-term investment in manufacturing and export-oriented sectors amid economic pressures from the Iran war. Still, continued high inflation, political uncertainty and bureaucratic hurdles will likely limit the reforms' overall effectiveness ahead of the 2028 presidential election. On May 5, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, submitted a bill to Turkey's Grand National Assembly intended to increase foreign currency inflows and boost both foreign and domestic investment through a series of economic reforms, including tax exemptions and tax cuts. Some provisions include 20 years of income tax exemptions for non-Turkish residents who transfer foreign-earned assets into the country. These income tax exemptions would also extend to recent residents of Turkey who have not paid domestic income taxes over the past three years and who register their foreign assets by July 2027. The tax breaks also extend to corporations
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Turkey
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMay 13, 2026 | 16:18 GMT
France, Africa: Macron Concludes Africa-France Summit in Kenya, Travels to Ethiopia for Meeting With Abiy
French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto concluded the Africa Forward Summit, during which Macron unveiled $23 billion in new private sector investment pledges from French and African companies in Africa and called for reforms to the international financial architecture, alongside around 30 African heads of state and governments, Jeune Afrique reported on May 12.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
France
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsMay 12, 2026 | 18:50 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.
Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines
The upcoming Trump-Xi summit will likely produce a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved. U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to make a state visit to China May 13-15 at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the main Trump-Xi meetings set for May 14-15 in Beijing. The visit will be Trump's first trip to China since 2017 and the two leaders' first in-person meeting since their October 2025 meeting in Busan, South Korea. U.S. officials have said the summit agenda could include the establishment of Board of Investment and Board of Trade mechanisms; Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, energy and aircraft; the status of the two countries' 2025 rare earths understanding; possible channels on artificial intelligence risk management; nuclear arms issues; and broader contentious security concerns involving Taiwan, Iran and the Strait
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United States
China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
AssessmentsMay 11, 2026 | 21:47 GMT
Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate with the party flags in Kolkata, India, following state elections in West Bengal.
In India, the BJP's State Election Wins Set the Stage for National Reform
In India, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's expanding control across state governments will likely enable greater coordination with the central government on citizenship and labor policies, and gradually strengthen the party's position in Parliament; but while this could renew momentum for long-term governance and constitutional reform agendas, significant parliamentary thresholds and federal resistance are likely to constrain their passage. On May 4, the Election Commission of India announced the results of the 2026 state assembly elections, held between April 9 and April 29 across four states and one Union Territory. The most significant result came in West Bengal, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defeated the incumbent All India Trinamool Congress government led by Mamata Banerjee, marking a historic breakthrough in a state long resistant to BJP expansion. In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) ended the decade-long rule of the Left Democratic Front, while in
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India
Politics
AssessmentsMay 11, 2026 | 20:08 GMT
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers a speech on April 18, 2026.
South Africa's Top Court Shows Ramaphosa the End of the Road
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will likely attempt to delay his upcoming impeachment process to facilitate the rise of a reformist successor within his African National Congress; but in a less likely, higher-impact scenario, Ramaphosa may still preemptively resign, which would likely collapse the country's coalition government. On May 8, South Africa's Constitutional Court nullified the National Assembly's December 2022 vote shielding President Ramaphosa from an impeachment investigation surrounding a political scandal, known as the Phala Phala scandal, and ordered that the report of an investigative panel now be referred to an impeachment committee within parliament. In response, the populist uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, and the smaller African Transition Movement party filed motions of no confidence against Ramaphosa on May 9. As for the center-right Democratic Alliance, the second-largest party in South Africa's coalition government, it said that it would "not prejudge the outcome"
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South Africa
Politics
AssessmentsMay 8, 2026 | 19:05 GMT
Trucks haul away ore from a pit in the Chinese-owned Tenke Fungurume Mine, one of the largest copper and cobalt mines in the world, in southeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo on June 17, 2023.
Trump Goes Hunting For Congo's Minerals
Growing mining sector cooperation between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United States will likely help improve Washington's security of supply of several critical minerals, but China's continued hold on global mineral processing in the country and a likely surge in political instability ahead of Congo's 2028 general elections will curtail the extent of these gains in the coming years. On March 27, U.S. mining company Virtus Minerals completed its $30 million acquisition of Congo-focused miner Chemaf and pledged to raise $720 million in financing to upgrade and develop its newly acquired mines and mining licenses. This came after the U.S.-linked Orion Critical Mineral Consortium and Switzerland-based commodity trading company Glencore announced on Feb. 3 their signing of a memorandum of understanding regarding the U.S. consortium's acquisition of a 40% stake in the commodity traders' assets in Congo at a cost of $9 billion. Meanwhile, Congolese state-owned miner
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
United States
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsMay 7, 2026 | 21:49 GMT
Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9.
Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade
Russia will likely avoid a direct disruption of its May 9 Victory Day parade, but Ukraine's expanding long-range strike capabilities -- while unlikely to threaten Moscow's regime stability or war strategy -- will increasingly raise the political, economic and psychological costs of the war ahead of the September Duma elections. On May 6, Ukraine entered a unilateral ceasefire, pledging to respond only symmetrically to Russian aggression. Later the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russian forces ignored the cessation, citing 1,820 strikes that Ukraine characterized as violations. This occurred despite Moscow's own proposal for a Victory Day truce on May 8-9, even as it threatened a "massive missile strike" on central Kyiv in the event of disruptions to commemorations. Russian President Vladimir Putin first floated a possible temporary ceasefire in his call with U.S. President Donald Trump on April 29. Russia's Defense Ministry later said the May 9
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Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsMay 6, 2026 | 18:40 GMT
Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.
What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada
In Canada, a renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. On May 4, Stay Free Alberta, a group pushing for the Canadian province of Alberta to secede, announced that it had formally submitted nearly 302,000 signatures, far more than the approximately 178,000 required, to try to trigger a referendum on Albertan independence. Albertan Premier Danielle Smith has previously said that she does not support such a move, but would put the question to a vote if campaigners received enough signatures. In December 2025, Elections Alberta verified over 404,000 signatures submitted by the pro-unity group Forever Canadian; the petition calls for a referendum to make it official provincial policy that Alberta remain part of Canada. If authorities verify that Stay Free Alberta has also met the signature threshold, Albertans could
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Canada
Politics
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