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AssessmentsJun 9, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, one of the main opposition candidates running in Poland's 2020 presidential election, greets locals and supporters in Wieliczka, Poland, during a campaign event on June 5, 2020. 
Poland After the Presidential Election
Poland’s upcoming presidential election could increase political instability at a time of already mounting economic uncertainty, should a less Euroskeptic opposition candidate defeat President Andrzej Duda and secure the power to veto legislation. Regardless of who wins, in the months ahead the Polish government will need to defend both its economy from further harm due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its access to EU farming subsidies and cohesion funds in the bloc’s 2021-2027 budget. Over time, growing debt levels and a worsening deficit could damage the government’s popularity and open the door to political change by impeding Warsaw’s ability to expand social welfare benefits.  
AssessmentsApr 27, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An Iranian warship takes part in celebrations for “National Persian Gulf Day” in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2019.
Trump Ups the Ante With Iran in the Persian Gulf
Iran and the United States may be heading toward another round of confrontation, even as both countries deal with significant COVID-19 outbreaks at home. Following a recent incident where 11 Iranian ships harassed U.S. vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted April 22 that he had "instructed" the U.S. Navy to destroy any Iranian vessels harassing U.S. ships. It remains unclear the extent to which, if at all, the United States will adjust its rules of engagement in response to Iran's latest maritime provocations. But the exchange highlights how Washington and Tehran’s current hawkish streak and inclination toward public threats could lead to another round of miscalculation and/or escalation between the two rivals. 
AssessmentsApr 8, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A photo of pill packets. The COVID-19 pandemic has raised serious concerns about the extremely high concentration of global pharmaceutical supply chains sourced from China and India.
Pharmaceutical Trade Remains Resilient in the Face of COVID-19
The United States and many other countries are heavily dependent on supplies of pharmaceuticals and precursor chemicals from China and India. Widespread shortages resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak remain unlikely. Legislative proposals in the United States to force companies to "reshore" supply chains will likely falter on the increase in costs and regulatory hurdles. 
AssessmentsFeb 25, 2020 | 10:30 GMT
This photo illustration displays currencies of China, the European Union and the United States.
The Fuzzy Math of Projecting the Coronavirus' Economic Impact
Several weeks into the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, it's clear the economic impact will be significant, even if just temporary. After all, it's not possible to shut down a large portion of the world's second-largest economy without directly affecting global growth, including subsequent spillovers to other countries from China's global integration. Current projections of monetary losses seem to be derived from the impact of the 2003 SARS epidemic, scaled to changes in the size of China's economy, plus attempts to account for China's increased trade linkages and greater weight in world trade. What's significantly different now is China's integration into global supply chains, including as a supplier of intermediate inputs used in final production.
AssessmentsJan 31, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
This photo shows Brexit supporter Joseph Afrane dressed up in London's Parliament Square to celebrate the impending departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union on Jan. 31.
The U.K. Is Finally Making Its Brexit. What's Next?
Three and a half years after the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom is making its long-anticipated departure from the European Union. But this, of course, isn't the end of the geopolitical saga that has swept headlines since British citizens first voted to leave the bloc in June 2016. While politicians in Brussels and London agreed to the terms of the Jan. 31 exit, now comes the even bigger task of outlining their future bilateral relationship. Though if the countless Brexit negotiations over the years tell us anything, it's that the upcoming discussions between the European Union and the United Kingdom are bound to produce even more rounds of drama in 2020. At the end of the day, however, the will to end the uncertainty plaguing both economies will ultimately keep London and Brussels coming back to the negotiating table.
SITUATION REPORTSep 30, 2019 | 20:45 GMT
China, India: New Delhi Considering Tariff Cuts That Would Facilitate Trade Deal
India might be willing to trim or remove tariffs on 80 percent of Chinese goods in five phases over 20 years, Financial Express reported Sept. 30, citing sources briefed on the latest Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations.
SnapshotsSep 25, 2019 | 18:56 GMT
India, U.S.: Old Squabbles Scuttle a Long-Expected Trade Deal
On Sept. 24, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, raising expectations that the two sides were poised to reveal a new trade deal following months of talks. But according to information leaked from the meeting, the negotiators failed to agree on Indian concessions on information and communication technology, dairy, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, e-commerce, and data localization -- in short, every bone of contention that has stymied an agreement for months. Still, U.S. President Donald Trump told visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi the same day that they would be able to announce a trade deal soon. 
GuidanceSep 21, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, and U.S. President Donald Trump speak during a bilateral meeting in Biarritz, France, on Aug. 26, 2019, on the third day of the annual G-7 summit.
What's Standing in the Way of a U.S.-India Trade Deal
The United States' trade war with China grabs all the headlines, but U.S. President Donald Trump is also bearing down on another major Asian economy: India. In June, Trump accused the Indian government of failing to provide "equitable and reasonable market access" and stripped New Delhi of its benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences, which enables India to export certain goods at a reduced tariff rate. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration retaliated by slapping tariffs on 28 U.S. goods. While the sides could soon clinch a short-term trade deal, the United States and India will have several outstanding issues to address before they finalize a more comprehensive pact. With the United States demanding that India reduce its bilateral trade surplus, open its economy to more U.S. agricultural products and go easier on U.S. technology giants, the countries remain far apart on a longer-term deal.
SITUATION REPORTJul 1, 2019 | 21:09 GMT
China: Beijing Loosens Restrictions on Foreign Investment
China announced a new list June 30 loosening restrictions on foreign investment in seven industries, Nikkei reported July 1, and its National Development and Reform Commission released a new version of its Encouraged Industries for Foreign Investment Catalogue, which specifies industries where foreign investment can receive preferential treatment.
SITUATION REPORTJun 28, 2019 | 15:15 GMT
China: Xi Announces New Measures to Open Economy
Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning new measures to open up a number of the country's sectors, establish six new free trade pilot zones, further lower tariffs and update its "negative list" -- which restricts investment in certain sectors -- to boost foreign investment, the People's Daily reported June 28.
On SecurityJun 18, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
China is home to the largest aero-engine maintenance base in Asia.
Common Misconceptions About China's Corporate Espionage Tactics
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the dangers of setting different security standards for information stored in "riskier" areas (such as Beijing) versus "safer" areas (such as Brussels). I argued that the threat posed by sophisticated corporate espionage actors, such as Chinese intelligence agencies, is global in nature, which is why security programs to defend against them must also have a global scope. As I have discussed this topic in more depth with clients, readers, the media and my Stratfor colleague Fred Burton in a recent podcast, it occurred to me that the belief that the espionage threat is limited to certain locations only scratched the surface of several other dangerous misperceptions -- especially when it comes to considering the threat posed by Chinese human intelligence operations.
AssessmentsFeb 11, 2019 | 12:00 GMT
Cranes unload containers from ships at the international container yard in Tokyo's port on Jan. 23, 2019.
Japan Drafts a Delicate Approach to U.S. Trade Talks
It's no secret that Tokyo's export prowess is less than appreciated in the White House. With Japan long in U.S. President Donald Trump's crosshairs due to its trade surplus with the United States, the two countries have finally agreed to sit down this year to talk trade. The timing for the start of the talks remains unclear. In October 2018, Washington extracted an agreement from Tokyo to come to the negotiating table by threatening to impose steep automotive tariffs. On Dec. 21, 2018, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative published its negotiating objectives, paving the way for talks to begin in late January. The two countries failed to convene, however, in part because of the long U.S. government shutdown, the increased tempo of U.S.-China talks and the beginning of Japan's ordinary Diet session. According to speculation, the U.S.-Japan talks may not begin until at least April. Nevertheless, the clock
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