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AssessmentsSep 12, 2025 | 19:44 GMT
A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha.
The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar
Israel's airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states. In the past few days, Qatari authorities, other countries in the region, European states and even the United States -- reportedly informed of the attack only as it was taking place -- all condemned Israel’s Sept. 9 airstrikes in Doha. The Israeli airstrikes in Doha did not succeed in killing the Hamas leaders Israel was targeting, though six others were killed. The incident was the first Israeli attack on a close U.S. ally in modern times. It was all the more significant given Qatar's designation as a major non-NATO ally of the United States, a status that signifies the closest security ties Washington can have with a foreign country that is not a NATO member.
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United States
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Lebanon
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsSep 10, 2025 | 20:18 GMT
Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025.
In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy
The Nigerian government will likely continue prioritizing security crises based on the political and economic relevance of different regions, but myriad domestic constraints and limited regional cooperation will enable armed groups to continue to expand their range of operations and capabilities. In mid-August, the governor of northwestern Zamfara state publicly rejected the option of negotiating with armed bandits to curb their growing attacks, instead pledging to pursue them by force. His firm stance came days after reports emerged that some local government areas in neighboring Katsina state had struck peace deals with bandit groups, though the terms of these agreements remain unclear. The deals follow a recent surge in banditry characterized by killings of both civilians and security personnel, kidnappings for ransom and disruption to farming and herding -- pivotal economic sectors in northern Nigeria. While initiatives such as peace agreements with bandits aim to address insecurity, they highlight the
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Burkina Faso
Chad
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsSep 1, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 2
Key maritime chokepoints are vulnerable to a variety of political, security and environmental threats that endanger global shipping and trade. The Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Suez Canal, the Danish and Turkish straits, and the Panama Canal are a handful of the most crucial waterways that the International Monetary Fund lists as essential for international commerce. Because of their centrality to global trade, disruptions to any of these chokepoints would have severe implications for supply chains and the trillions of dollars worth of goods that transit these routes. Such disruptions could be caused by geopolitical tensions like those between NATO and Russia, physical security issues like militancy and piracy, and environmental concerns like drought.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsAug 29, 2025 | 16:11 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 1
Countries' reliance on maritime chokepoints is increasingly rendering the availability of goods and energy supplies vulnerable to a range of threats, including geopolitical tensions, conflict, militancy, piracy and severe weather events. The growth of global trade since the advent of containerization in the shipping industry in the 1950s has led countries to increasingly rely on oceans to ship goods and energy products, particularly due to the lower cost and higher capacity of maritime shipping compared with air transport. Over 80% of global trade volume is carried by sea, with anywhere from 4,950 to 258,000 metric tons of cargo funneling daily between the world's least trafficked and most trafficked waterways. While these waterways have helped improve the reliability of supply chains and fostered global economic growth, their ever-rising traffic and often limited capacity have also gradually transformed them into chokepoints. These bottlenecks are vulnerable to geopolitical crises and conflict, physical security
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Americas
Middle East and North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Eurasia
South Asia
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsAug 26, 2025 | 21:27 GMT
A photo taken on Jan. 11, 2022, shows soldiers from the Taaung National Liberation Army (TNLA), a Palaung ethnic armed group, gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state.
Myanmar's Elections and the Military's Quest for Legitimacy
In Myanmar, the military regime's claimed recapture of an eastern township portends intensified violence ahead of elections, which will be tightly managed and deepen fissures with rebel forces, but could open the door to limited international reengagement after years of civil war. On Aug. 19, Myanmar's military regime announced that its troops had captured Demoso township in eastern Kayah state. This followed weeks of heavy clashes with ethnic Karenni armed groups and pro-democracy militias, which had held parts of the township since the junta seized power in a coup in February 2021. Demoso residents immediately disputed the news, citing ongoing gunfire and bombardment in the area. But the military has nonetheless touted its alleged victory as proof of its ability to claw back rebel-contested areas, and that it retains momentum heading into its newly declared election cycle. Indeed, just days earlier, the regime unveiled its most concrete election plan since
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Myanmar
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsAug 19, 2025 | 19:27 GMT
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Jassim al-Budaiwi and the foreign ministers from the six GCC countries (Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) pose for a group photo during the GCC foreign minister meeting in Kuwait City on June 2, 2025.
Solid Fundamentals Shield GCC Economies From Global Volatility
Gulf Arab states' solid macroeconomic and financial fundamentals will keep the region resilient in the face of global economic uncertainty, including a potential sustained drop in oil prices over the next few quarters. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to sustain solid economic growth over the next five years against the backdrop of low inflation and strong current account and external financial positions. Oil prices and production levels, particularly in the case of swing producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will continue to strongly contribute to economic growth, despite Gulf states' decades-long and ongoing efforts to diversify away from oil and gas production. Across the region, ongoing structural reform has helped increase the share of the non-hydrocarbon economy, though Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia remain highly reliant on oil and gas exports. By comparison, Bahrain and
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Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Energy
AssessmentsAug 14, 2025 | 20:01 GMT
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (left) speaks next to leaders of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) during a press conference at the LDP's headquarters in Tokyo on Oct. 28, 2024.
The LDP, Japan's Political Leviathan, Faces Another Reckoning
Japan's latest elections highlighted structural issues for the dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which could in the coming months drive it to expand its coalition or incorporate its rivals' policies to address the public's economic concerns; otherwise, Japan may turn inward for years, and though the LDP will emerge still atop the country's political system, it will do so as first among equals rather than as its undisputed leader. The LDP's losses in the July 20 upper house elections spurred heated debates about the fate of LDP President and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in both Nagatacho -- the seat of government in Tokyo -- and in Japanese society at large. While the LDP itself is divided about Ishiba's fate, one thing its members and the general public agree on is that the party is experiencing a systemic electoral crisis that will not be solved by either preserving or ousting
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Japan
Politics
AssessmentsAug 13, 2025 | 22:12 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (center), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (right) hold up an agreement signed during a ceremony at the White House on Aug. 8, 2025.
What To Make of the U.S.-Brokered Peace Deal Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
A U.S.-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan has ushered in a strategic realignment in the South Caucasus by cementing Baku’s territorial gains, sidelining Russia and Iran, and planting a long-term U.S. commercial footprint in the region. But the treaty will remain fragile amid unresolved security guarantees and implementation challenges, and could unravel within the next 12-18 months. On Aug. 8, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House, where the three leaders issued a joint declaration outlining the outcomes of their trilateral summit. According to the declaration, the leaders witnessed the initialling of a draft peace agreement by the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, aimed at ending decades of conflict between the two countries. They also endorsed a joint appeal to terminate the OSCE Minsk Group and its associated mechanisms. Additionally, the joint declaration committed Armenia, the
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United States
Iran
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsAug 13, 2025 | 21:35 GMT
Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.
The UAE's Long Game in East Africa
Over the past two decades, Emirati companies have steadily expanded their footprint across East Africa, with a focus on logistics, farmland and critical minerals. Amid East African countries' rapid economic growth, this trend will likely continue as Dubai-based entities look to capitalize on the region's economic potential and to position Dubai as its leading trade interface with the rest of the world. However, the United Arab Emirates' outreach to East Africa has become increasingly driven by geostrategic considerations since the start of the 2010s, with the goal of pushing back against political Islam and shoring up Emirati influence in the Red Sea region. With a rising prospect of resurging UAE-Turkey competition in the medium-term amid Iran's repeated setbacks, Abu Dhabi will likely keep deepening its security and trade partnership with East Africa as it seeks to keep Ankara and other regional competitors' influence at bay -- with Ethiopia and Uganda
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South Sudan
Chad
Ethiopia
Somalia
Sudan
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsAug 11, 2025 | 22:10 GMT
Israeli military vehicles drive along the border fence into Israel, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025.
Despite Recent Talks, Syria-Israel Normalization Remains Highly Unlikely
While Syria will seek pragmatic ties with Israel for limited security cooperation, domestic anti-Israeli sentiment and pressure from hard-liners, stoked by additional Israeli military interventions in Syria, will prevent any formal normalization of relations between the two countries, especially in the absence of U.S. economic pressure on Damascus. On July 26, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack moderated a meeting in Paris between Syrian and Israeli representatives to de-escalate tensions following the latest round of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian targets on July 16, which included attacks near the presidential palace and on the army headquarters in Damascus. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted the strikes after the Syrian army deployed to the southern province of Sweida, a region Israel wants to be demilitarized, to break up sectarian clashes between Sunni Bedouin clans and Syrian Druze backed by Israel. But U.S. mediation successfully pressured both Israel and Syria to de-escalate, with interim Syrian
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United States
Israel
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsAug 8, 2025 | 19:45 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at a press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.
What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit
The upcoming Trump-Putin summit risks sidelining Ukraine, fracturing Western unity and creating space for Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains and promote a U.S.-Russia framework that advances Russian strategic interests. On Aug. 7, the Kremlin and the White House confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are preparing to meet ''within days.'' The announcement came just hours ahead of an Aug. 8 deadline set by Trump, who has threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil unless Moscow makes significant progress on the peace process in Ukraine. According to Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy aide, the leaders ''essentially'' agreed to a one-on-one summit, their first since 2018, at the ''suggestion of the American side.'' This development followed closed-door talks between Putin and U.S. special envoy Steve  Witkoff in Moscow on Aug. 6, which both sides described as ''productive'' and ''constructive,'' though no details were disclosed. U.S.
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
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