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AssessmentsMay 17, 2024 | 21:36 GMT
Ukrainian soldiers fire at a Russian position in Ukraine's Kharkiv region on April 21, 2024.
Russia's New Front in Kharkiv Raises the Stakes for Ukraine and the West
Russia's renewed push toward Kharkiv is initially intended to spread thin and distract Ukrainian forces, but the growing threat it poses to the city and surrounding region will likely become core to Russia's war efforts in 2025 and beyond. On May 10, Russian forces reopened a front north of the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv by attacking two locations in the surrounding region, enabling them to gain a foothold in a number of Ukrainian settlements along the Russia-Ukraine border. Russian troops had besieged Kharkiv -- which is located roughly 30 kilometers south of the Russian border -- earlier in the war, but were forced to retreat in September 2022 as a result of Ukraine's successful counteroffensive. On May 14, the Ukrainian military acknowledged it had withdrawn from the border town of Vovchansk, though fighting continued on the town's outskirts. As of May 17, Russian forces were still advancing toward the
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsMay 10, 2024 | 19:45 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (left), surrounded by their respective delegations, hold a meeting in Beijing, China, on Oct. 18, 2023.
What To Expect During Putin's Trip to China
During his upcoming trip to China, Russian President Vladimir Putin will seek to deepen economic and military cooperation with Beijing, as well as ink new energy deals. But China's growing leverage in the relationship means such cooperation will come largely on its terms. On April 25, Putin confirmed he would visit China in May, with reports later indicating the trip could take place as soon as May 15-16, though these dates have yet to be officially confirmed and are still subject to change. The visit intends to mirror Chinese President Xi Jinping's three-day visit to Russia in March 2023, where the two leaders held hours of formal and informal talks and signed numerous bilateral cooperation documents. This will be Putin's fourth in-person meeting with Xi since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and his first visit to a foreign country since his inauguration for a fifth presidential term on May
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China
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsMar 5, 2024 | 18:25 GMT
A stock photo shows a street scene in the financial district of London.
The U.K.'s Post-Brexit Economic Struggles Look Set To Linger
In the coming years, the United Kingdom's economy will continue to underperform relative to its pre-Brexit trajectory, as well as to its peers, but this is unlikely to compel any future U.K. governments to consider re-joining the European Union. For the first three decades in the aftermath of World War II, the U.K. economy was characterized by low economic growth, high government debt, stop-and-go macroeconomic policies and general underperformance compared to its Western European peers. The United Kingdom's reliance on the Commonwealth, along with its late joining of the European Community -- which, had it happened earlier, would have exposed U.K. industry to greater competition from other advanced economies and helped increase productivity -- were among the main factors contributing to the country's disappointing economic performance. While France and Germany were experiencing decades of rapid growth and economic development in the post-WWII period, the U.K. economy (and especially U.K. industry)
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United Kingdom
Economics
AssessmentsJan 29, 2024 | 21:34 GMT
A ship transits the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea on Jan. 10, 2024, in Ismailia, Egypt.
How Will the Gaza War Impact Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon's Economies?
The Hamas-Israel war is harming the economies of Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, but Cairo and Amman's access to IMF loans means they're better positioned to weather the storm than Beirut. As the Israel-Hamas war approaches its fifth month, the economic toll of the war on regional neighbors is becoming more apparent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank expressed concerns over the economic impact that a sustained conflict would have on Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan's economies due to their geographic proximity and immediate risk of spillover effects. While some sectors, including the energy sector, rebounded after the initial shock of the Gaza war's outbreak, regional uncertainty has left lasting impacts on the region's tourism, transportation and service industries. The United Nations estimated that the first three months of the war cumulatively cost Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon $10.3 billion, though the cost will continue to grow as the war
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Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Economics
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 8, 2024 | 19:30 GMT
A view of the Russian Central Bank headquarters is seen in downtown Moscow on May 26, 2022.
Ukraine's Western Allies Mull Seizing Frozen Russian Assets
Faced with increasing domestic opposition to providing Ukraine with more financial aid, the United States and its allies are considering seizing frozen Russian assets to help fund Kyiv's war effort. Such a move, however, would lead Moscow to retaliate by confiscating Western companies' assets in Russia, which would in turn help the Russian government fund its invasion of Ukraine, while escalating the greater economic tit-for-tat between Russia and the West. In recent weeks, the G-7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) have intensified discussions about the possibility of seizing Russian government-owned financial assets stashed in Western nations, and then using those funds to support Ukraine's war effort or fund its reconstruction. Since Russia launched its Ukraine invasion in February 2022, the United States has generally taken a more assertive stance on seizing, not just freezing, Russian government assets compared with the European Union,
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United States
Europe
Germany
France
Italy
Ukraine
Russia
Economics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsDec 20, 2023 | 21:01 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) leaves the hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace on Dec. 8, 2023, in Moscow, Russia, as officers of the Presidential Regiment (right) look on.
The Implications of a Russian Victory in Ukraine
Should Western military and financial support for Ukraine weaken in 2024 and beyond, Russia will keep or even expand its territorial control of Ukraine, which will increase the risk of Russian aggressions against other countries amid an increasingly fragmented and ineffective West. On Dec. 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a large end-of-year press conference, marking the first time in nearly two years that he gave a public engagement of this type. His statements -- particularly on the back of his recent visit to the Middle East -- underscored Moscow's renewed confidence in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, Russia's economy, and Putin's grip on power ahead of Russia's March 2024 presidential election.
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Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsNov 29, 2023 | 22:33 GMT
Activists march toward Bangladesh's election commission in Dhaka on Nov. 15, 2023, to protest the announcement of the general election's date.
Bangladesh Braces for Another Turbulent Election
As Bangladesh prepares to hold elections on Jan. 7, growing concerns about vote rigging, rising inflation and the government's crackdown on dissent risk triggering more political violence and economically disruptive protests ahead of -- and potentially after -- the ballot. Bangladesh has a long history of turbulent elections marked by violent unrest, and its 2024 general election appears poised to prove no different. On Nov. 15, Bangladesh's election commission announced that the country would hold its next general election on Jan. 7, which has since triggered widespread blockages, hartals (or strikes) and demonstrations across the country. Over the past two weeks, opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have reiterated their intent to boycott the elections as a means to ''delegitimize'' another likely victory by the ruling Awami League (AL) party, which has been in power since 2009. Additionally, since mid-October, workers in the country's ready-made garment (RMG) industry
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Bangladesh
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 17, 2023 | 21:37 GMT
A stock photo shows blue capsules on a conveyor at a pharmaceutical factory.
The Implications of the EU's Pharmaceutical Reform
If approved, a plan to reform the European Union's pharmaceutical rules will create opportunities to improve the bloc's supply chain resilience in the sector, but this could come at the price of higher costs and reduced competitiveness for the industry. In April, the European Commission proposed an overhaul of the bloc's pharmaceutical rules that has since created controversy in the industry. The reform aims to tackle structural and supply chain issues (such as varying access and costs for treatments and drugs between EU countries), while seeking to improve the bloc's capacity to tackle new and old challenges like antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and rare diseases. But industry groups are warning the reform -- particularly new rules that would shorten drugmakers' standard period of market exclusivity for new medicines -- would dramatically reduce the incentives to invest in Europe, accelerating a trend that has already seen the region lose about a quarter of
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Europe
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
On GeopoliticsNov 7, 2023 | 20:55 GMT
The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 1
Many low- and lower-middle-income countries are in financial distress or in default. A combination of overborrowing and COVID-related higher fiscal spending has led many low-income countries to experience significant economic and financial distress. Increased debt levels and higher borrowing costs, in part due to global monetary tightening, have forced countries like Ghana, Sri Lanka and Zambia into default, while leaving many others teetering on the edge of a debt default and financial distress. In order to re-establish economic and financial stability, many of these countries will need to restructure their debt and pursue International Monetary Fund-led economic reforms. But this requires bilateral (government) creditors to provide debt relief.
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Zambia
China
South Asia
Economics
AssessmentsOct 16, 2023 | 21:28 GMT
An installation for China’s Belt and Road Forum is seen in Beijing on Oct. 16, 2023.
What to Watch for During China's Belt and Road Summit
China's third Belt and Road forum will inform the future geographic and industrial focus of its overseas engagements, as well as Beijing's efforts to use the program to supplement China's economic development and wage strategic competition with the West. From Oct. 17-18, China will host its third Belt and Road Forum since it launched its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) global infrastructure development strategy in 2013. Ahead of the forum, which will be held in Beijing, China's State Council published a white paper for the BRI on Oct. 10, which positioned Beijing as a defender of trade globalization, champion of Global South development, and bulwark against Western ''protectionism and hegemonism.'' That same day, China's Foreign Ministry announced that the Export-Import Bank of China (one of China's two largest BRI lenders) had reached a preliminary deal with Sri Lanka's government to restructure $4.2 billion of the country's debt, much of which
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China
Economics
Energy
Politics
SnapshotsAug 31, 2023 | 20:23 GMT
A North Korean flag is seen fixed on a lamp post in the far-eastern Russian port of Vladivostok on April 25, 2019.
What Russia and North Korea Stand to Gain From an Arms Deal
North Korea's potential provision of weapons to Russia's war effort in Ukraine could bolster Moscow's long-term arms procurement and provide Pyongyang with key imports and a chance to balance ties with Russia against China. On Aug. 30, U.S. National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby announced the United States had intelligence that North Korea and Russia were in high-level discussions for the former to sell weapons to the latter for its war in Ukraine. Kirby added that these negotiations may continue for months and could include North Korea providing Russia with multiple types of artillery ammunition and raw materials. This comes after North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jung-Un in mid-August urged his top officials to expand the country's weapons production capacity after touring munitions factories. In Ukraine, the Russian army is in need of greater supplies of artillery (of all kinds) to credibly threaten future offensives and mobilization measures.
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North Korea
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
On GeopoliticsAug 17, 2023 | 21:40 GMT
People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021.
The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia
As its war in Ukraine rages on, Russia is finding itself in need of increased manpower to sustain a war with no clear end in sight. And to address this challenge, Moscow is increasingly turning to its growing population of Central Asian migrants. Though estimates are difficult to discern due to frequent exit and reentry, at least 6 million migrants in Russia officially hail from Central Asia, with millions more likely working and residing in the country illegally. This large pool provides the Russian Armed Forces with an important source of infantry, as well as an influx of desperately needed workers in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine. Many of these migrants already work in low-paying unskilled positions, making potential war service all the more attractive, given the lucrative financial compensation -- and even suggestions of an expedited path to citizenship -- offered to those willing to serve Russia in Ukraine. 
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Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Social Issues
AssessmentsJul 21, 2023 | 14:32 GMT
A 3D map of Turkey with a flag embedded into the planet's surface during sunrise.
The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey
Turkey is a classic geopolitical middle power. It’s not strong enough to unilaterally impose its policies, but not weak enough to be forced into the orbit of another great power. This middle power status is rooted in its geographic position between Europe and Asia, which affords Turkey great economic opportunities and knowledge transfers, but also exposes it to security threats by placing it between numerous powerful countries and potential invaders.
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Turkey
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsJun 26, 2023 | 16:00 GMT
2023 Third-Quarter Forecast
Low economic growth, pervasive financial risks, the stalemate in Ukraine and technological competition between the world’s largest economies will drive geopolitical risk during the third quarter.
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AssessmentsJun 16, 2023 | 18:35 GMT
People look at a Russian T-90 tank in Prague, Czech Republic, on July 15, 2022, as part of a display of military equipment destroyed in the war in Ukraine.
The Ukraine War Accelerates Russia's Decline as a Global Arms Exporter
Russia's dominance as a global arms exporter will likely continue to fall as a result of the Ukraine war, weakening a key element of Moscow's foreign policy and creating opportunities for other states to bolster their arms industries. The need to backfill its own losses in Ukraine, doubts about its weapons' performance, and declining Indian sales have seen Russia's arms exports plummet over the years. And recent signs suggest this trend will only continue. On June 5, India and the United States finalized a landmark roadmap for defense industry cooperation in the coming years that will significantly boost India's incentive to ramp up its domestic arms production and, in turn, further reduce its reliance on Russian weapons. This follows a report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) earlier this year that revealed Russia's share of global arms sales (in terms of actual deliveries of major arms as
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Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsApr 6, 2023 | 15:15 GMT
A photograph taken on March 16, 2023, shows Lake Serre-Poncon partially dry, near Embrun, in the French Alps.
Europe's Scorching Summer and Warm Winter Portend a New Normal
In Europe, more frequent and severe droughts due to climate change will increasingly impact the Continent's drinking water supplies, agriculture, industry, energy generation and social stability. Last month, the European Drought Observatory (EDO) released a map showing alerts for low rainfall or low soil moisture in areas of northern and southern Spain, northern Italy, most of Greece, southern Germany and almost all of France, as well as large parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland. EDO's indicators suggest vast areas of the continent are far drier than they should be at this time of the year after what has been an exceptionally dry and warm winter. The lack of snow and rain in recent months has further strained Europe's water supplies, which were already low following the record-breaking temperatures that swept across the Continent over the summer. Amid the ongoing drought, several European countries are facing water shortages, and many
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Europe
Germany
France
Spain
Italy
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Social Issues
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