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On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025 | 18:18 GMT
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
In October, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense published its biennial National Defense Report (NDR), which describes the state of Taiwan's security environment, as well as the goals for and challenges to developing the island nation's military. The report suggests the Taiwan military's arms procurement and recruitment capabilities are growing to help it deter and defend against a Chinese invasion. But it is still unclear how well Taiwan could coordinate a whole-of-society defense effort, necessitating deeper informal ties with the West and the broadcasting of China's aggressive gray-zone activities to gain Western support. Likewise, Taiwan's ability to deter Chinese aggression shy of an invasion (e.g., a blockade) depends as much on political signals and Lai's willingness to escalate as it does on Taiwan's military capabilities. The upshot is that Taipei is demonstrating growing intent and tactical capabilities but not yet the administrative capacity to carry out a sustained defense. Moreover, perhaps
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China
Taiwan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
ColumnsNov 28, 2025 | 08:56 GMT
A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.
Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare
The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted how accessible, cost-effective technologies, particularly drones, are reshaping modern warfare. Drones have become central instruments of cost-imposition, allowing Ukraine to inflict disproportionate damage on a materially stronger adversary at a fraction of the cost of traditional weapons systems. Far from the rapid win Russia hoped to impose, Ukraine has demonstrated that smaller states can leverage these technologies to survive, adapt and even impose sustained costs over the long term.
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Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsNov 21, 2025 | 23:17 GMT
Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.
Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War
A U.S. ultimatum giving Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a U.S.-brokered peace plan marks the clearest attempt yet to translate U.S. leverage into a negotiated settlement that would formalize major Ukrainian concessions and freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, but Kyiv is unlikely to accede, meaning the war will probably continue, at least into 2026. On Nov. 21, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he has given Ukraine a deadline of Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 27) to accept his administration's proposed 28-point peace plan with Russia, warning that failure to do so would trigger a suspension of U.S. intelligence and military support. The proposal envisions a negotiated settlement that would, among other things, reaffirm Ukraine's sovereignty while formalizing a major territorial and security compromise. Key elements of that compromise include the de facto recognition of Russian control over all of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk; a freeze along current
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsNov 20, 2025 | 16:08 GMT
The Pentagon viewed from above.
New U.S. Defense Acquisition Reforms Offer Opportunities for Improvements, but Longstanding Constraints Remain
Reforms to how the United States acquires weapons pledged by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration offer new ways to simplify and accelerate the process, but persistent constraints will likely limit transformation, hampering U.S. preparations for future conflicts and risking the quality of new capabilities. On Nov. 10, the U.S. Department of Defense released the texts of memorandums U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth referenced in a highly anticipated Nov. 7 address in which he outlined a strategy to streamline the Pentagon's procurement process, revive the country's defense industrial base and accelerate the delivery of capabilities to U.S. military personnel. According to Hegseth, "The defense acquisition system as you know it is dead." The planned updates include simplifying the chain of command to acquire new capabilities, giving more freedom to acquisition officials to shift funds and make decisions more quickly, favoring commercially available solutions over bespoke ones, changing contract terms to
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United States
Military & Security
Situation ReportNov 18, 2025 | 20:14 GMT
Cyberspace: Cloudflare Outage Temporarily Disrupts Access to Popular Web-Based Services
Beginning in the early hours of Nov. 18, global online users began reporting outages linked to popular web-based services like chatbot tools ChatGPT and Claude, e-commerce giants Amazon and Shopify, and social media platform X, in addition to numerous media outlets, entertainment websites and gaming platforms, The New York Times reported the same day.
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United States
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 12, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
A screen is seen during the International military anti drone exercise Baltic Trust 25 (BATT25) at the Selonia (Selija) military training ground near Viesite on Aug. 27, 2025.
Despite Political Enthusiasm, EU Drone Defenses Face Obstacles to Implementation
The European Union's ongoing anti-drone initiatives underscore the bloc's push toward collective defense integration, but persistent financial, political and logistical barriers will slow progress, leaving the bloc vulnerable to continued Russian hybrid drone incursions. On Nov. 10, the European Commission announced that it would formally launch a 250 million euro ($289 million) tender to help EU member states acquire drone and anti-drone capabilities. The move comes less than a month after the commission's Oct. 16 call for stronger anti-drone defenses as part of its "Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030," which outlines plans for shared early-warning systems, cross-border airspace surveillance and harmonized response protocols. In recent weeks, several European countries have unveiled plans to expand national counter-drone measures. Denmark and Belgium have introduced temporary bans and tighter regulations on civilian drone flights near sensitive infrastructure following a series of unidentified drone sightings near airports and power facilities. Belgian authorities have also launched
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Europe
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsNov 3, 2025 | 22:37 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.
President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years
China's policy plan for 2026-2030 lays out continuity in economic policy but also highlights an intent to pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, launch internal anti-corruption probes to enforce President Xi Jinping's policy vision, and use lawfare amid foreign disputes. On Oct. 28, China's State Council published the details of the Chinese Communist Party's proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan (15th FYP) for National Economic and Social Development, which was passed at the CCP's recent Fourth Plenum in Beijing from Oct. 20-23. The document charts China's policy trajectory from 2026-2030, but it is mainly thematic and qualitative in nature, lacking many of the quantitative targets that China's rubber-stamp legislature will unveil at its annual meeting in March 2026. Still, the document reflects the policy priorities of the CCP and, thus, those of China's central government. It also offers a rare glimpse into the worldview of China's leadership, particularly
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China
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
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United States
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
On SecurityOct 29, 2025 | 15:39 GMT
Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building.
Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success
In recent weeks, a flurry of youth-led mass protests, often given the moniker ''Gen Z,'' has swept across countries in Africa and Asia. Despite each protest movement having its own unique features, there are signs that they have been inspiring, if not significantly coordinating with each other. They share a common frustration with the ruling elite and a belief that poor governance -- due to the rising cost of living, high-level corruption, social injustice, worsening authoritarianism or otherwise -- is mortgaging their futures. These movements not only have generated empathy from outsiders but also resulted in changes, from regime change or changes to unpopular legislation, that open the door to reforms to countries' political structures, economic systems and security apparatuses. But these uprisings also entail numerous risks beyond the obvious potential for near-term violence. These dangers are often overlooked, yet Gen Z protesters will have to confront the same fundamental
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Kenya
Madagascar
Nigeria
South Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Peru
Jordan
Lebanon
Morocco
Tunisia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Serbia
Bangladesh
Nepal
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportOct 27, 2025 | 17:32 GMT
U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam: Washington Secures Critical Minerals, Market Access
The United States and Malaysia signed a reciprocal trade pact that leaves in place Washington's 19% tariff rate on Malaysian goods but grants zero-tariff carveouts for more than 1,700 Malaysian export categories and "favorable consideration on semiconductors," while securing Malaysian commitments not to restrict exports of critical minerals (including rare earths) and magnets, The Straits Times reported on Oct. 26.
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United States
Malaysia
Vietnam
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 22, 2025 | 17:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies
Ongoing revisions to the European Union's supply-chain due diligence framework reflect a softening of ambitious sustainability goals as competitiveness, economic security and trade diversification take precedence, easing near-term compliance burdens for businesses but maintaining binding ESG obligations, regulatory fragmentation and long-term uncertainty for large companies and high-impact sectors such as energy, agriculture and manufacturing. The European Union is weakening its most ambitious supply-chain sustainability rules -- the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) -- by delaying implementation, easing compliance and narrowing obligations. As part of the ''Omnibus'' simplification package presented in February, Brussels proposed giving companies more time and flexibility and softening due diligence, disclosure and liability requirements for all three initiatives. In April, the European Union also adopted the ''Stop-the-Clock'' Directive, pausing transposition and first-phase application of both CSDDD and CSRD to prevent immediate compliance deadlines from
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Europe
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsOct 17, 2025 | 20:31 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other senior government members and deputies attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 8, 2025, in Beijing, China.
What To Watch for During China's Fourth Plenum
The Chinese government's fourth plenum will reveal its next five-year plan, elucidating economic and security objectives; it will likely also update Beijing's indigenous industrialization plans and fill the thinned ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, giving insights into future policy priorities and the trajectory of President Xi Jinping's political purges. China's Central Committee (CC), the national decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), will hold its fourth plenum from Oct. 20-23. In its five-year tenure, each CC holds seven plenums, with this fourth plenum set to discuss China's 15th five-year plan. Each five-year plan is a policy document that roughly outlines the CCP's top economic, security and political priorities for China, with this latest iteration covering 2026-2030. Though the full details will not be published until China's ''Two Sessions'' rubber-stamp legislative meetings in March 2026, the CCP usually publishes a proposal containing the broad policy contours and ideological framing
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China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
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