Situation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 20:47 GMT
U.S., Syria: U.S. Lifts Some, but Not All, Sanctions on Syria
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to partially lift sanctions on Syria, the White House announced on June 30.
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Situation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 19:17 GMT
Indonesia, U.S.: Jakarta Cuts Import Restrictions, Proposes Minerals Collaboration
Indonesia announced it will ease import restrictions on over 300 goods categories -- including plastics, chemicals, fertilizers and forestry products -- rolled out under 2023 trade protection rules in a partial reversal of its protectionist measures, Reuters reported on June 30.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 18:56 GMT
Cameroon: Second Ally of Long-Term President Announces Presidential Bid
Cameroon's long-serving Tourism Minister and former Prime Minister Bello Bouba Maigari, president of the National Union for Democracy and Progress, entered the country's 2025 presidential race without resigning from his Cabinet position, becoming the second senior northern ally of President Paul Biya to do so in recent days, Reuters reported on June 30.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 18:53 GMT
U.S.: Republicans Reach Deal on Significantly Weaker Moratorium on State AI Regulations
U.S. Republican senators agreed on June 29 to reduce the attempted moratorium on state artificial intelligence regulations from 10 years to five years, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) said in a statement.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 18:37 GMT
Philippines, U.S., Japan: Countries Deepen Unified Security Front and Infrastructure Collaboration
Philippine military leaders, in tandem with the United States and Japan, are operationalizing a "one-theater" concept to unify defense planning across the East and South China seas, which Japan and the Philippines, respectively, dispute with China, Reuters reported on June 30.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 18:34 GMT
U.S.: Senate Tax and Spending Bill Targets Wind, Solar Projects With New Tax
The spending and tax bill drafted by Senate Republicans, which may be passed as early as July 2, added several provisions, including a new 30% or 50% tax on solar and wind projects coming online after 2027 that include any material assistance from a foreign prohibited entity.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 16:29 GMT
U.K., U.S.: Tariff Relief Deal Takes Effect for Auto and Aerospace Sectors
Key provisions of the May U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal -- covering tariff reductions on cars, aircraft engines and aerospace parts -- officially took effect on June 30, the United Kingdom confirmed in a press release the same day.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 16:26 GMT
U.S., Canada: Canada To Rescind Digital Services Tax After U.S. Calls Off Trade Talks
Canada will not collect its digital services tax on June 30 and will introduce legislation to formally rescind the Digital Services Tax Act to advance trade talks with the United States, Canada's Department of Finance said in a June 29 press release.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 30, 2025 | 16:23 GMT
Russia, Ukraine: Russia Launches Major Air Attack Amid Stalled Negotiations
Ukraine's government announced on June 29 that overnight, Russia had launched what Kyiv described as its biggest air attack since the beginning of the war in February 2022, The Kyiv Independent reported the same day.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 30, 2025 | 15:02 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 28, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 20:15 GMT
U.S., Canada: Trump Says Trade Talks With Canada Will End Over Digital Services Tax
U.S. President Donald Trump said in a June 27 Truth Social post that the United States would immediately terminate all trade talks with Canada and impose new tariffs on Canadian goods within the next seven days due to Canada's digital services tax going into effect.
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 27, 2025 | 20:11 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 19:23 GMT
Brazil: Supreme Court Ruling Holds Digital Platforms Liable for Users' Posts
Brazil's Supreme Court ruled on June 26 that social media platforms can be held legally responsible for users' posts, the Financial Times reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 19:21 GMT
Australia: Naval Deficiencies Spell More Risk for AUKUS
Australia's Defense Department slashed maintenance and training budgets by 10% to help pay for AUKUS submarines and missile purchases, sparking warnings that Australian Defense Force personnel, warships and aircraft were no longer fully operational, The Australian Financial Review reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
China: Removal of Commanders, Nuclear Scientist Signals Deepening Military Purge
China removed Gen. Miao Hua from the Central Military Commission and expelled Navy Chief of Staff Vice Adm. Li Hanjun and nuclear scientist Liu Shipeng from the National People's Congress, marking a sharp escalation in Chinese President Xi Jinping's military purge, the South China Morning Post reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:08 GMT
China, U.S.: Washington, Beijing Finalize Rare Earth Trade Truce
The United States and China finalized their June framework trade agreement under which China has pledged to resume rare earth exports to the United States in exchange for rollbacks of certain U.S. trade restrictions on non-sensitive goods, like ethane and air components, Bloomberg reported on June 27.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 16:14 GMT
Turkey: Ankara To Skip Mid-Year Minimum Wage Raise
In a break from routine, Turkey will not increase its minimum wage mid-year in a bid to further cool inflation and appease investors concerned about the country's economic strategy, Bloomberg reported on June 27.
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