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SnapshotsFeb 11, 2026 | 22:44 GMT
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.
Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party
In Thailand, an electoral win for the incumbent conservative party will improve short-term political stability, but coalition politics, the power of entrenched institutions and uncertainty over the trajectory of constitutional reform will continue to constrain governance and sustain political risk. On Feb. 8, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's center-right Bhumjaithai Party won a decisive plurality in snap general elections. With roughly 95% of votes counted as of Feb. 11, Bhumjaithai was projected to win about 193 of 500 seats, well short of an outright majority but far ahead of the progressive opposition People's Party, which won roughly 118 seats, and the center-left Pheu Thai Party, which won roughly 74 seats. Coalition talks began immediately, with the People's Party publicly ruling out participation in an Anutin-led coalition, while Anutin emphasized the need for a robust majority and pledged tougher border measures and a stronger military posture. The result was widely interpreted
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Thailand
Politics
SnapshotsFeb 10, 2026 | 19:36 GMT
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London.
In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point
A deepening internal crisis within Labour is weakening Prime Minister Keir Starmer's authority and raising the likelihood of a leadership challenge, but structural constraints and broad party consensus make sharp policy shifts or a break with the United Kingdom's current fiscal trajectory unlikely, limiting the risk to only limited, short-term market volatility. Starmer's leadership came under acute pressure after renewed controversy over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States triggered senior resignations in Downing Street and open calls for him to step aside. Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned on Feb. 8, taking responsibility for advising Starmer on the appointment despite Mandelson's past association with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Tim Allan, Starmer's director of communications, followed suit shortly thereafter. Officials cited by British media said cabinet ministers were also preparing to privately urge Starmer to resign or threaten their own departures. On Feb. 9, Scottish
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United Kingdom
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 10, 2026 | 18:49 GMT
American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026.
Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba
Facing imminent collapse and mounting U.S. pressure, the Cuban government will likely make concessions to Washington to gradually open its economy without requiring structural political changes, which the United States will likely support to avoid a state collapse and reaffirm its geopolitical dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
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Cuba
Mexico
United States
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsFeb 9, 2026 | 22:36 GMT
Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi reacts as she speaks with media on the day of lower house elections at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Feb. 8, 2026.
Election Landslide Stabilizes Japanese Politics, Cements Defense Modernization
A major electoral victory by Japan's ruling party will enable conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to expand social and defense spending, ease lingering concerns about political instability and bolster ties with the United States, though at the expense of those with China and potentially South Korea. Takaichi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 316 out of 465 seats in the Feb. 8 snap elections for the lower house of the Diet, giving it a rare supermajority and the largest seat share in its party history. When combined with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the LDP-led government now has 352 seats. Opposition parties, on the other hand, heavily underperformed. The main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) -- formed in recent weeks by a merger of the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party and former LDP coalition partner, the center-left Komeito -- saw its seat count drop from 167 to just 49.
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Japan
Politics
SnapshotsFeb 9, 2026 | 19:25 GMT
Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.
In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands
In Tunisia, officials from the country's influential labor union confederation will likely try to mend internal disputes to increase the effectiveness of any rescheduled national strike, but failure to do so would likely embolden Tunisian President Kais Saied to further erode the union's strength and, in turn, private-sector bargaining power. Nearly three weeks have passed since the Tunisian General Labor Union, or UGTT, had originally intended to conduct a nationwide general strike on Jan. 21. On Jan. 23, the union's deputy secretary-general suggested that a decision regarding the future of the strike would be determined at the union's congress, tentatively scheduled for March 25-27. Union leadership originally called for the strike in December 2025 to protest the Tunisian government's crackdown on the opposition, protect the union's right to collective bargaining after the central government sidelined the union from wage and pension increase negotiations, and call for dialogue between government and
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Tunisia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 5, 2026 | 20:28 GMT
People walk past campaign posters in Bangkok on Feb. 2, 2026, ahead of Thailand's Feb. 8 general election.
Elections and Referendum Unlikely to End Thailand's Cycle of Constrained Governance
Thailand's general election and constitutional referendum are unlikely to deliver a decisive political reset and will instead risk extending a familiar cycle of contested governance, constrained reform and policy caution amid heightened security pressures and economic underperformance. On Feb. 8, Thailand will hold a general election for the 500-seat House of Representatives and a national referendum on whether to initiate the drafting of a new constitution to replace the 2017 charter. Under Thailand's parallel voting system, 400 members of parliament will be elected from constituencies and 100 from party lists. Forming a government will require the support of at least 251 lawmakers to select a prime minister. The election is being contested primarily by three major political blocs: a progressive and reformist camp led by the People's Party, center-right forces aligned with the governing Bhumjaithai Party and the established political network of the center-left Pheu Thai Party, which advocates redistributive
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Thailand
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 4, 2026 | 22:13 GMT
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (top, 5th from left) speaks during the election campaign rally on Jan. 29, 2026, in Himeji, Japan.
Japan's Lower House Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Jan. 23 dissolution of the more powerful lower house of Japan's Diet, Japanese voters will go to the polls on Feb. 8 after a record-short 16-day campaign period. Takaichi came into office in the October 2025 leadership election of her ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by tapping into surging popular support for conservative populism. However, in the process, she lost the LDP's 26-year coalition partner, the center-left Komeito, and gained a new, untested partner in the Kansai-based conservative Japan Innovation Party (JIP). After political horse-trading, she was able to piece together the smallest possible majority in the lower house (233 seats) with the JIP, but opposition parties still chair eight out of 17 powerful lower house standing committees, including the crucial Budget Committee. Riding a honeymoon period of public support following her October election, pledges to cut taxes and a rally-around-the-flag effect from
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Japan
Economics
Politics
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