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AssessmentsMar 12, 2026 | 19:55 GMT
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.
Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran
In an extended conflict with Iran, the United States could escalate by deploying ground forces ranging from limited commando raids to a full-scale invasion. But while small special operations missions are the most viable option, larger incursions or regime-change operations would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support. With the air war unlikely to result in a decisive victory for either side, the United States has threatened to further escalate with ground operations inside Iran, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he does not want to take any options off the table. A ground operation could run the gamut, from a limited commando raid with narrow and specific objectives with a few dozen forces, to an incursion with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and limited regional diplomatic buy-in, to a full-scale invasion to topple the regime,
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United States
Iran
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 15:46 GMT
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026.
The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships
Canada's push to deepen ties with India, Australia and Japan reflects an effort to reduce economic and security dependence on the United States, yet this plan faces varying constraints and any successes may ultimately strengthen the same U.S.-centered economic and security system Ottawa is trying to hedge against. From Feb. 27 to March 6, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India, Australia and Japan to expand economic, technological and security cooperation. During the trip, Canada and each of the three governments announced a range of initiatives covering trade negotiations, energy cooperation, investment coordination, critical minerals supply chains, defense dialogue and emerging technologies. In India, Carney met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to advance bilateral economic cooperation and launch new negotiations toward a comprehensive trade agreement, while also announcing commercial deals and new cooperation frameworks in energy, defense and technology. Carney then traveled to Australia, where he met with Prime Minister
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Canada
United States
Australia
Japan
India
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 10, 2026 | 15:54 GMT
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil talks to the media before the start of an Eurogroup ministers meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 9, 2026.
A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles
While the European Union will make incremental progress on a capital markets union (CMU) in the coming years, a fully unified market remains unlikely in the short to medium term, which will limit immediate reductions in financing costs and strategic autonomy but will gradually improve access to capital, market efficiency and resilience for European businesses over time. In recent months, efforts by the European Union to advance its long-standing CMU project have gained renewed urgency amid rising geopolitical risk, weak economic growth and mounting pressure to improve financing conditions for European businesses. Most recently, in a Feb. 19 interview with The Wall Street Journal, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated the need to establish a CMU to lower financing costs for European companies and increase European competitiveness. The CMU seeks to create a single, integrated capital market across all EU member states by harmonizing rules and legislation to facilitate
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Europe
Economics
AssessmentsMar 9, 2026 | 15:11 GMT
Jordanian Armed Forces, U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces and other international forces conduct a combined Arms Live Fire Exercise on May 23, 2024 in the desert near Azraq, Jordan.
Jordan Likely To Step Up Anti-Islamic State, Countersmuggling Operations in Syria
The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria will likely pressure Jordan to expand security support to Syria to combat challenges including the Islamic State and arms and drug smuggling. Jordan is likely to conduct at least sporadic airstrikes when Syria is unable or unwilling to effectively mitigate threats. Over the next two months, the United States is expected to fully withdraw the roughly 1,000 troops remaining in Syria, continuing the drawdown begun in 2025. In mid-February, U.S. forces handed over operations of the al-Tanf Base near Syria's borders with Jordan and Iraq to Syrian forces. Days later, U.S. troops also transferred control of the al-Shaddadi Base in Syria's northeast. While some U.S. forces withdrew to Jordan, where the United States maintains a robust military presence at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (MSAB), the government in Amman remains concerned about cross-border threats from Syria. However, the outbreak of war with Iran on
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMar 6, 2026 | 16:30 GMT
U.S., Latin America, Caribbean: U.S. and Allies Agree on Aggressive Approach Against Latin American Drug Trafficking
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth signed a deal with military officials from 19 Latin American and Caribbean countries ideologically aligned with President Donald Trump's administration to fight narcoterrorist groups, Reuters reported March 5.
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Americas
Argentina
Bolivia
Chile
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
United States
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 4, 2026 | 21:11 GMT
Volunteers clean up the rubble outside a government building in Tehran, Iran, that was destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes on March 4, 2026.
The Iran War Will Last as Long as U.S. Political Resolve Does
The current trajectory of the Middle East crisis suggests the most likely outcome is a tenuous ceasefire in a few weeks, but a more immediate ceasefire or one that takes longer to achieve is also possible, depending on the level of U.S. political resolve to maintain its campaign against Iran. The joint Israeli-U.S. attacks on Iran that began on Feb. 28 mark the fourth major overt assault on Iranian territory in the past two years, following 12 days of Israeli attacks (which the United States eventually joined) in June 2025 and two rounds of Israeli missile barrages in 2024. Each of these cycles of escalation has resulted in a wider target set and greater regional impact, but each has also ended in an informal ceasefire, either declared overtly or implicitly. Diplomats from across the region and the world are already working on finding a path to try to de-escalate the
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United States
Iran
Israel
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 27, 2026 | 21:58 GMT
A view shows tents near the Port of Gaza in the Gaza Strip on Feb. 9, 2026.
Netanyahu Will Struggle To Defeat Hamas Before Israeli Elections
The United States is unlikely to give Israel an open-ended commitment to renew war in Gaza in the near term, which will complicate the Israeli government's re-election path and the sustainability of its Gaza strategy to eject Hamas from the Strip. On Feb. 19, the United States formally inaugurated President Donald Trump's "Board of Peace," an initiative whose main goal is to design post-war policy for Gaza. The board is meant to cap off Trump's pledge to end the war in Gaza and reconstruct the battered Strip. Still, it comes on the backdrop of continued fighting between Israel and Hamas in the territory and deep uncertainty over the viability of reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel has shown little interest in Trump's overarching vision for peace in Gaza. Although Israel dispatched representatives to the Board of Peace's unveiling, Israeli officials have consistently signaled a divergence with Washington over how to approach Gaza. Israel
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsFeb 24, 2026 | 17:25 GMT
Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.
In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership
The convergence of domestic political developments and heightened North Atlantic security concerns is accelerating the debate over Iceland's membership of the European Union and increasing the possibility of a referendum to resume accession talks. On Feb. 23, Icelandic Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir said that her government would submit to Parliament a bill to organize a referendum on whether to reopen negotiations to join the European Union. Gunnarsdottir said that the bill would be submitted "before the summer" but declined to provide a specific date. Also on Feb. 23, Politico reported that a referendum could take place as early as August. Separately, Iceland's finance ministry announced that it was working on an assessment about the advantages and disadvantages of using the Icelandic krona compared to adopting the euro, which should be published by the end of June. 
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Europe
Iceland
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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