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SnapshotsJun 24, 2025 | 16:48 GMT
Iranian missiles aimed at targets in Israel pass through the sky over the West Bank on June 17, 2025.
The Iran-Israel Ceasefire Will Remain Fragile Amid Unresolved Disputes
Even if a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds in the coming weeks and months, a series of unresolved issues leaves the door open to violations that will likely strain and could collapse the truce in the future. On June 23, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire that was scheduled to enter into effect early on June 24. Though the Iranian foreign minister initially denied agreeing to the ceasefire, saying it would only stop attacking Israel once Israeli attacks stopped, Iranian state media later claimed that the ceasefire was "imposed on the enemy." Israel similarly agreed to stop attacks on Iran so long as Iran halted its own attacks. Ahead of the ceasefire deadline, Iran launched missiles that killed three Israelis and injured several more. Israel also launched a series of attacks against different areas in Tehran, in
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United States
Iran
Israel
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 23, 2025 | 21:12 GMT
A photo taken on June 23, 2025, shows the remnants of an Iranian missile intercepted over Qatar.
With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions
Absent further retaliation, Iran's seemingly limited response to the June 22 U.S. attacks enables a path toward de-escalation between the two sides, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict. On 23 June, Iran launched multiple missiles against Qatar's al-Udeid Air Base, which houses the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. Qatar released a statement condemning Iran's attack on the airbase, which had been partially evacuated as a precaution, and noted that Qatari air defenses intercepted the Iranian missiles, which caused no casualties. According to Iranian state-backed media, Iran's Supreme National Security Council claimed that the attack "obliterated" the al-Udeid Air Base -- the same word U.S. President Donald Trump used to describe the damage the recent U.S. strikes did to Iran's nuclear facilities -- and that Iran deployed the same number of missiles as the number of bombs (14)
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United States
Iran
Israel
Qatar
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 22, 2025 | 15:35 GMT
A Northrop B-2 Spirit on July 4, 2020, near the White House in Washington. 
Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation
Iran will likely try to calibrate its kinetic response to the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities to avoid significant escalation, but its response will open the door to further attacks that include Iran targeting regional oil and gas production. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 22 said that the United States had "blown up" diplomacy with its decision to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities earlier that day, and that "we have to respond" following what has been more than a week of Israeli attacks that began on June 13. When asked by a reporter about potential retaliation options, Araghchi would not rule out an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz or harass ships in the strait, or an exit from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In response to the attacks, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a June 22 statement that the United States had put
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United States
Iran
Israel
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 19, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: June 19, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
SnapshotsJun 16, 2025 | 16:06 GMT
Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.
Assessing the Trajectory of the Iran-Israel War
With both sides seemingly unwilling to negotiate, the Iran-Israel conflict is escalating into a high-intensity but limited war that increases the risk of regional spillover and/or Iran's withdrawal from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, elevating the risk of U.S. military involvement. Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles toward central and northern Israel early on June 16, while Israel continued its widespread attacks on Iran, including against its capital, Tehran. Since June 13, Israeli attacks in Iran have killed at least 224 people, according to the Iranian government, while Iranian attacks in Israel have killed at least 23 people and injured more than 400 others, according to the Israeli government. Iran's June 16 ballistic missile attack impacted several locations in Israel, including Haifa, Petah Tikva and Tel Aviv, where an Iranian missile slightly damaged the U.S. Consulate. Meanwhile, Israel reported that it hit more than 80 targets in Tehran on June 15,
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United States
Iran
Israel
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 13, 2025 | 09:21 GMT
A view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
What To Expect as Israel Goes After Iran's Nuclear Program, Military Capabilities
Israel's unprecedented attacks on Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure mark a deliberate escalation aimed at degrading both Iran's nuclear capabilities and leadership command, likely triggering sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in the near term. In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched extensive attacks on Iranian targets, involving around 200 aircraft and 330 munitions hitting approximately 100 sites across Iran. The offensive, announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a multiday operation to neutralize what he called an existential threat, focused on critical nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz, Khondab, Khorramabad, and Tehran-area enrichment facilities. Strikes also targeted military assets -- such as missile factories, air-defense systems and command centers -- as well as residential neighborhoods housing senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders. Among those reportedly killed were IRGC Commander-in-Chief Gen. Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, and prominent
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Iran
Israel
Military & Security
SnapshotsJun 13, 2025 | 00:45 GMT
An Israeli Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft on March 24, 2025, over the city of Yokneam Illit in northern Israel.
Israel Launches Major Military Strikes on Iran
Israeli launched a "preemptive" strike on Iran in the early hours of June 13, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced as he declared a special state of emergency inside Israel. The scope and scale of Israel's attack on Iran is unclear and could involve several waves with initial strikes targeting radars, air defense systems, aircraft and control towers to enable more direct strikes on sensitive nuclear facilities.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 12, 2025 | 16:44 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump discusses his plans for a "Golden Dome" U.S. missile defense shield in the Oval Office of the White House on May 20, 2025.
The Feasibility and Risks of Trump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Shield
The White House's plan for a U.S. missile defense shield will likely face large technical hurdles, cost overruns and delays, but even a system that falls short of its expansive aims would threaten to accelerate the militarization of space and an arms race, as well as add momentum behind the commercialization of space. On June 10, two Republican members of the House of Representatives announced the formation of a Golden Dome Caucus, which will collaborate with one launched in the Senate last month, to provide legislative backing for U.S. President Donald Trump's expansive vision for an antimissile defense system to cover the United States. In remarks made on May 20, Trump estimated that the initiative would cost about $175 billion and would be operational before he leaves office in January 2029. The specifics of the effort are still being developed and many details will remain classified, but Trump said that
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United States
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 12, 2025 | 16:32 GMT
An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.
As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Flounder, Israel Inches Toward Escalation
As U.S.-Iran nuclear talks flounder, Israel is growing increasingly likely to strike Iran's nuclear program, which would likely lead Iran to target Israeli and potentially U.S. assets in the region, as well as weaken Iran's reformist-moderate presidency and empower its hard-liners. The United States' self-imposed 60-day deadline for negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran ended on June 12 without a deal, and the next round of indirect negotiations, currently scheduled for June 15 in Oman, are reportedly in jeopardy. The State Department announced on June 11 that it ordered all nonessential personnel to depart Iraq, and U.S. Central Command said the U.S. defense secretary had "authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations" in the Middle East. The drawdown in the U.S. presence is due to growing U.S. intelligence that Israel may soon strike Iran's nuclear program with or without U.S. approval. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry and atomic energy
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Lebanon
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 12, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
A Map of U.S. Naval Assets
U.S. Naval Update Map: June 12, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
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United States
Tracking U.S. Naval Power
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