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Sudan: Multiple RSF Drone Strikes Continue Targeting Key City of Port Sudan

Situation ReportMay 6, 2025 | 19:17 GMT

Port Sudan, serving as the headquarters of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, was struck by multiple drone attacks attributed to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, which has not yet claimed responsibility for the attacks, Reuters reported on May 6.

Sudan

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

On SecurityOct 21, 2024 | 18:16 GMT

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

The past few weeks have seen a flurry of official Western government statements, media investigations and other reports alleging that multiple foreign countries are increasingly working through proxies to sponsor a wide range of illegal operations, including lethal violence, harassment and intimidation, and cyber threat activity across the West. These operations are setting off alarm bells across North America and Europe as authorities express concern that proxies are becoming bolder and more dangerous.

Situation ReportSep 17, 2024 | 18:52 GMT

U.S.: Texas Governor Declares Tren de Aragua a Terrorist Group

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott declared the Venezuelan criminal group Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist group, increasing government resources for combatting the group and penalties against members, The Texas Tribune reported on Sept. 16.

AssessmentsSep 16, 2024 | 20:50 GMT

Sri Lankan Presidential Candidates Face an Electorate Upset by the Economy

In Sri Lanka's presidential elections, differing views on the country's agreement with the International Monetary Fund and austerity measures, social issues involving Tamils and Muslims, and balancing relations with India and China heighten the risk of social unrest, delays in financial support, and uncertainty in economic planning and reforms, while the new president's insufficient support in Parliament may delay policy.

Sri Lanka

The New U.K. Government Faces Its First Test Amid Rash of Far-Right Riots

SnapshotsAug 6, 2024 | 17:20 GMT

Far-right activists gather in Sunderland, England, on Aug. 2, 2024, after misinformation spread via social media falsely attributed to a Muslim migrant to the recent murders of three girls in Southport.

Widespread, violent rioting across the United Kingdom underscores the growing threat of far-right extremism amid rising anti-immigration sentiment, political polarization and disinformation campaigns, but the unrest is unlikely to significantly destabilize the new Labour government. Violent far-right demonstrations have been taking place for over a week in multiple towns and cities across the United Kingdom. Violence first broke out on July 30 in Southport, Merseyside, as far-right groups rioted in front of a mosque amid speculation on social media that a 17-year-old male arrested in connection to a mass stabbing attack that killed three young girls and seriously injured five others in the town was a Muslim migrant. Despite investigators dismissing rumors about the identity of the attacker, riots spread across the country over the following days, including in London, Manchester, Liverpool, Sunderland, Blackpool, Bristol, Hull, Leeds, Middlesbrough and Belfast, resulting in clashes with the police and significant property damage.

United Kingdom

Previewing Venezuela's Presidential Election

AssessmentsJul 22, 2024 | 21:02 GMT

A member of Venezuela’s national guard walks past the information center of the country’s National Electoral Council (CNE) in Caracas on July 16, 2024, ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

Venezuela's presidential election will be neither free nor fair, meaning the United States will likely uphold oil sanctions, which will fuel migrant outflows by deepening the country's economic crisis. Venezuela will hold presidential elections on July 28. Amid pressure from the international community, President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leaders signed the Barbados Agreement in October 2023 to ensure the presidential race would be competitive, which saw the United States temporarily suspend its sanctions on the country's oil, gas and mining sectors that made it illegal for U.S. firms to do business with Venezuelan state-run enterprises. However, to clear his path to victory, Maduro has since used his influence over judicial and electoral bodies, as well as the media, to sideline, silence and persecute opposition leaders, including Maria Corina Machado, who had been the opposition's leading presidential candidate before a Supreme Court ruling in January barred her from running for office. Against

SnapshotsJul 18, 2024 | 21:16 GMT

Jordan's King Abdullah II (right) and the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, pose for a photo during the 2024 G-7 Summit in Savelletri, Italy, on June 14, 2024.

As Conflicts Rage on Around It, Jordan Sets Out To Boost Its Business Appeal

Jordan will implement structural reforms aligned with the International Monetary Fund's recommendations to improve the country's business environment, but persistent regional instability and anti-Western sentiment will likely deter some foreign investment. On July 1, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursed an additional $130 million of its $1.2 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement with Jordan that it signed in January following a successful initial review. In announcing the disbursement, the IMF stated that Jordan's EFF-supported program was ''off to a strong start, reflecting the authorities' strong ownership'' of the program.'' The fund further noted that Amman had met all the benchmarks and criteria for the first review, including via its efforts to improve the country's macroeconomic stability, business environment, and the financial viability of the electricity sector. But the IMF also noted that Jordan still faces high unemployment rates and significant expenditure to address the more than 600,000 Syrian refugees

Jordan

In Tajikistan, a Looming Succession Risks Fueling Instability and Radicalization

AssessmentsJul 8, 2024 | 21:22 GMT

The structural reasons for Tajikistan's vulnerability to instability and radicalization will likely persist, and could be exacerbated by a looming succession, underscoring continued security risks for neighboring states and the wider region. On July 3, leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan, for their annual summit. Security was of particular resonance this year given the growing terrorism and stability threats emanating from the Taliban-led Afghanistan, which have garnered greater attention after several Tajik citizens linked to Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow on March 22. To this end, on July 4, SCO states announced the establishment of an anti-drug center and the upgrading of a regional anti-terrorist structure into a universal security center that will respond to the entire spectrum of security threats in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. But statements leading up to the summit demonstrated continued tensions between SCO member

Tajikistan

France, Russia: Ukrainian-Russian National Arrested in Paris With Explosives

Situation ReportJun 6, 2024 | 19:24 GMT

French authorities arrested a 26-year-old Ukrainian-Russian man following an accidental, self-inflicted explosion in a hotel room in Roissy-en-France, a small commune about 15 miles (24 kilometers) north of Paris, Reuters reported on June 5, citing sources from France's National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor's Office.

AssessmentsMay 28, 2024 | 19:56 GMT

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

Intensifying concerns about terrorism and instability emanating from Afghanistan, alongside economic opportunities, will drive increased international engagement with the Afghan Taliban in the coming years, though the group's hard-line religious rule and continuing links to other militant groups will likely put a ceiling on the level of foreign engagement and deter many countries from formally recognizing the regime diplomatically.

Situation ReportMar 22, 2024 | 17:25 GMT

China: Regulators Issue New Rules To Facilitate Cross-Border Data Flows

China's digital and cyberspace regulator issued new rules intended to ease cross-border data flows by softening more stringent data rules announced in 2023, Reuters reported on March 22.

China

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

AssessmentsFeb 27, 2024 | 16:49 GMT

Olympic rings in front of the Hotel de Ville in Paris, France, on May 22, 2023.

Paris' Threat Outlook Amid the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, Part 1

The 2024 Summer Olympic Games will increase many types of risk in Paris, including opportunistic crime that threatens visitors and potentially some form of protest activity that could create a variety of disruptions. Paris will host the 2024 Summer Olympic Games between July 26 and Aug. 11. The event will draw the world's attention as well as millions of visitors to the French capital, posing significant security challenges that include opportunistic crime against newcomers and a variety of possible protest activities, especially on the back of recent political instability in France. While these risks will intensify during particularly high-profile events, like the opening ceremony, they will remain elevated throughout the Games across Paris and beyond, including in areas not necessarily in proximity to sporting venues. As a result, visitors and Parisians alike will face increased risks of theft, violence and transportation disruptions in the weeks surrounding and during the Games.

AssessmentsJan 29, 2024 | 21:34 GMT

A ship transits the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea on Jan. 10, 2024, in Ismailia, Egypt.

How Will the Gaza War Impact Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon's Economies?

The Hamas-Israel war is harming the economies of Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, but Cairo and Amman's access to IMF loans means they're better positioned to weather the storm than Beirut. As the Israel-Hamas war approaches its fifth month, the economic toll of the war on regional neighbors is becoming more apparent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank expressed concerns over the economic impact that a sustained conflict would have on Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan's economies due to their geographic proximity and immediate risk of spillover effects. While some sectors, including the energy sector, rebounded after the initial shock of the Gaza war's outbreak, regional uncertainty has left lasting impacts on the region's tourism, transportation and service industries. The United Nations estimated that the first three months of the war cumulatively cost Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon $10.3 billion, though the cost will continue to grow as the war

Israel-Hamas Conflict

What Another El-Sisi Term Would Mean for Egypt

AssessmentsDec 5, 2023 | 21:50 GMT

Supporters of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gather in El Korba Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Oct. 2, 2023, as they wait for him to announce his candidacy in the upcoming presidential election.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's widely expected re-election will free him to pursue economic reforms and pragmatic ties with Israel, as well as measures aimed at growing the country's tourism and energy sectors. El-Sisi will very likely win a third term in Egypt's Dec. 10-12 presidential election -- which will be the country's first nationwide election since 2018 -- thanks to his government's sweeping crackdown on opposition candidates and supporters, along with its installation of administrative barriers that have dissuaded potential candidates from being added to the ballot. El-Sisi retains the support of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, which heavily influences which candidates can run for office. But he has lost some support among Egyptian voters amid the country's worsening economic crisis. Winning re-election by a large margin would enable el-Sisi to claim he has a popular mandate to enact the policies he pledged to pursue during his third

AssessmentsNov 29, 2023 | 22:33 GMT

Activists march toward Bangladesh's election commission in Dhaka on Nov. 15, 2023, to protest the announcement of the general election's date.

Bangladesh Braces for Another Turbulent Election

As Bangladesh prepares to hold elections on Jan. 7, growing concerns about vote rigging, rising inflation and the government's crackdown on dissent risk triggering more political violence and economically disruptive protests ahead of -- and potentially after -- the ballot. Bangladesh has a long history of turbulent elections marked by violent unrest, and its 2024 general election appears poised to prove no different. On Nov. 15, Bangladesh's election commission announced that the country would hold its next general election on Jan. 7, which has since triggered widespread blockages, hartals (or strikes) and demonstrations across the country. Over the past two weeks, opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have reiterated their intent to boycott the elections as a means to ''delegitimize'' another likely victory by the ruling Awami League (AL) party, which has been in power since 2009. Additionally, since mid-October, workers in the country's ready-made garment (RMG) industry

Situation ReportNov 10, 2023 | 20:27 GMT

Egypt: Government Will Sell State Assets, Expand Trade to Curb Economic Crisis

The head of the Sovereign Fund of Egypt announced that the state would sell seven hotels in Egypt by the end of 2023, Reuters reported on Nov. 9.

Egypt

Turkey

Previewing Madagascar's Presidential Election

AssessmentsNov 6, 2023 | 21:09 GMT

Opposition supporters attend a rally in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 21, 2023, ahead of the country’s Nov. 16 presidential election.

In Madagascar, President Andry Rajoelina will likely win reelection, portending limited mining sector reforms, lucrative government contracts with foreign entities, and little change to the country's rampant corruption, poverty and crime rates. The East African island nation of Madagascar will hold a presidential election on Nov. 16, during which President Rajoelina will run for reelection against opposition leaders and former presidents Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina. Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, a former judo champion and head of the African Judo Union, is also in the running with suspected backing from Russia. Following violent clashes between opposition supporters and security forces during opposition rallies, the high constitutional court postponed the election from Nov. 9 but said that a runoff would still be held on the original date of Dec. 20 if no candidate wins a simple majority. While the "Collective of Eleven" -- an alliance of 11 opposition candidates against Rajoelina -- crumbled

Madagascar

The Moroccan Earthquake's Economic and Political Fallout

SnapshotsSep 11, 2023 | 21:00 GMT

Earthquake rescue operations Sept. 11, 2023, in the mountainous area of Tizi n-Test, Taroudant province, Morocco.

The economic impact of Morocco's earthquakes will harm growth into 2024, potentially forcing the elected government out and slowing the country's fiscal consolidation.

Morocco