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SnapshotsJul 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

The U.S. Responds to China's Uighur Crackdown With More Sanctions

The U.S. decision to sanction a Chinese Politburo member will provoke a tit-for-tat response from Beijing, adding to the mounting tensions between the two countries. On July 9, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned one Chinese government agency and four individuals for their role in the ongoing crackdown on ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang. While such sanctions will not alone derail the U.S.-China "phase one" trade deal, they will add to the growing points of tension that, when combined, threaten the agreement. The targeted focus of these sanctions on individuals also suggests a more measured U.S. approach to the Uighur crisis in Xinjiang, similar to Washington's approach in its response to Beijing's encroachment over Hong Kong.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

China in Transition

GuidanceJul 8, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

Technicians in Hong Kong walk next to a banner supporting China’s new national security law following a flag-raising ceremony marking the 23rd anniversary of the city’s British handover on July 1, 2020.

China's Hong Kong Security Law Leaves Tech Companies in the Line of Fire

China's new national security law is forcing tech companies to pick a side in Hong Kong's political crisis and decide whether to comply or resist authorities in some way, or leave the city altogether -- all of which carry the risk of retaliation from either Beijing or the United States and its allies. On July 6, Hong Kong's newly established Committee for Safeguarding National Security moved to implement seven, new enabling regulations for the national security law. The regulations -- which include police powers to order internet companies to remove content or to seize their equipment with threats of fines or prison -- have since prompted a spate of social media platforms and internet firms operating in the city to pause their cooperation with Hong Kong authorities. The volatile political dynamic in Hong Kong and the steady erosion of the city's autonomy will ultimately pose the greatest long-term threat to

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

China in Transition

SnapshotsJul 7, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

A Drought Lays Bare Morocco’s Vulnerabilities

While declining rainfall is a problem across the Maghreb region of northwest Africa, this year's ongoing spring and summer drought is hitting Morocco's agricultural sector particularly hard. The drought will weaken the strategic objectives of the Moroccan government's agricultural investment plan, which prioritizes support for export-producing large farms over subsistence-producing small farms in order to drum up valuable export revenue. Dampened domestic production will also force Morocco to import more staple crops needed to feed its 36 million citizens. Combined with the loss of crucial agricultural revenue, the added expense of more imports will exacerbate the economic fallout from the COVID-19 crisis, which is already sapping Morocco's tourism revenue.

The Difficulties of North African Reform

SITUATION REPORTJul 6, 2020 | 20:22 GMT

China: Beijing Makes Surprise Choice to Lead Hong Kong Security Committee

Beijing on July 4 selected former Guangdong Party Secretary-General Zheng Yanxiong to be the head of the mainland's dedicated Hong Kong security committee, the South China Morning Post reported July 4.

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

China in Transition

SnapshotsJul 6, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

A Proposed Oil Redistribution Plan Risks Further Fracturing Libya

Potential changes to the way oil revenue and exports are shared and distributed in Libya could have significant ramifications for the country's sovereignty and ongoing civil war by establishing de facto splits in Libya's financial system. In a June 29 statement, Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said that it was “hopeful” that a deal could be reached in its negotiations with the country's internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and other regional countries. The NOC also announced on July 1 that it had told workers to prepare to resume work at oil fields soon. Led by France, the United States, the United Nations and Egypt, these negotiations have centered on directly splitting oil revenue between Libya's three regions of Cyrenaica, Fezzan and Tripolitania. This new system would, in turn, bypass the country's Tripoli-based Central Bank of Libya (CBL), which is where Libya's oil revenue is currently deposited.

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

GuidanceJul 4, 2020 | 14:00 GMT

Newly appointed European Council President Charles Michel gives a speech during the handover ceremony between outgoing European Council President Donald Tusk and his successor, Michel, in Brussels on Nov. 29, 2019.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU Budget Proposal and the Hong Kong National Security Law Gets a Test

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

On GeopoliticsJul 3, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

China’s Rise as a Global Power Reaches Its Riskiest Point Yet

China is an empire in the modern sense -- a nation strengthened (but also held hostage) by its long supply chains, compelled to ever greater economic and political intercourse to preserve its interests, and increasingly drawn into the security sphere as well. It uses its economic, political and military leverage to expand its own direct sphere of operations, from the South China Sea to India and across Central Asia into Europe. The more engaged it is internationally, the more dependent it is on maintaining and strengthening those connections, which are critical for Chinese economic growth and, by extension, domestic management of its massive, diverse and economically unequal population.

Modernizing China’s Military

China in Transition

AssessmentsJul 2, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

People stand in line to receive grant payments from the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA) in Khayelitsha, a township located near Cape Town, on May 4, 2020.

South Africa's Budget Outlook Paints a Picture of a Lost Decade

South Africa will likely miss its recently adjusted budget targets as the country’s escalating COVID-19 outbreak delays much-needed austerity measures, leaving the South African economy in shambles for at least another five years. President Cyril Ramaphosa and his pro-business allies in the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party had planned to rein in government spending and the country's sky-high debt levels over the next three years. But South Africa's likely extended health and economic crisis could make that goal politically untenable, given that any budget cuts and potential layoffs would most acutely affect the ANC's support base of labor unions and their poorer Black constituents.

South Africa

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

COVID-19

Economics

Old Leaders in a New Africa

PodcastsJul 1, 2020 | 20:34 GMT

RANE Insights: Preparing for a Second Wave Amid a Sea of Data

In this episode of the RANE Insight podcast series, RANE founder and Chief Collaborative Officer David Lawrence speaks with Jim Sisco, Founder and CEO of Enodo Global, a Social Risk Advisory Firm; and Dr. Frederick S. Southwick, an infectious disease expert with the University of Florida, about the resurgent COVID-19.

United States

COVID-19

AssessmentsJul 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

An image depicts waving Chinese and Indian flags overlaying a map of the world.

In India, Anti-China Anger Will Bring Out Modi's Hawkish Side

A surge of anti-China sentiment among Indian lawmakers, business leaders and voters will prompt Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a more aggressive approach against Bejing in the wake of the two countries' recent border clash. This could include a variety of actions ranging from diplomatic moves to economic and trade measures, as well as a continued military build-up against China, which will only further ratchet up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

Modernizing China’s Military

China in Transition

India's Own Worst Enemy

SnapshotsJun 30, 2020 | 19:49 GMT

China's Security Law Ushers in a New and Uncertain Era in Hong Kong

The passing of China's new Hong Kong national security law marks the start of an uncertain and potentially volatile phase in the city's ongoing political crisis, as pro-democracy forces square-off with newly empowered city authorities backed by Beijing, increasing the risk of a sweeping crackdown on dissent that could also impact foreign institutions. Whether the next period sees tumultuous protests or a stifling of the pro-democracy camp will now depend on how Hong Kong authorities choose to apply their new sweeping powers and how the prosecution of such crimes proceed in the court system. Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp, for its part, will work to balance the need to maintain public furor against Beijing's ongoing erosion of the city's autonomy with the need to also save its strength for September legislative council elections, where it hopes to gain ground and challenge Beijing-aligned authorities.

AssessmentsJun 30, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

Syrian refugees walk outside a tent at a camp near the Iraqi Kurdish town of Bardarash on Oct. 18, 2019.

COVID-19 Cash Shortages Will Cripple Global Humanitarian Efforts

Reductions in funding for multilateral aid due to the economic fallout from COVID-19 are impacting the fight against the epidemic in conflict zones such as Yemen, raising the prospect of migration flows and renewed fighting, while increasing pressure on private aid organizations to fund humanitarian programs. Funding for multilateral humanitarian aid is dwindling as donor countries increasingly turn inward to solve their own COVID-19 crises at home. Donor countries are providing pandemic relief in various ways, including debt relief, financial swaps and bilateral aid. But global economic contractions, estimated to hover around 7 percent this year, are reducing aid contributions to the United Nations and other institutions, creating severe systemic funding gaps.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Security Challenges in Latin America

The Jihadist Wars

SnapshotsJun 29, 2020 | 16:05 GMT

French Local Elections Deal a Blow to Macron's Political Prospects

A little more than three years after taking office, French President Emmanuel Macron's La Republique En Marche (LREM) party has failed to win support at the municipal level, where much of French politics takes place. The second round of municipal elections on June 28 resulted in big wins for opposition parties, which suggests France's political system is becoming increasingly fragmented and that the country's traditional parties are struggling to compete with their emerging rivals. Very low voter turnout (around 41 percent) also suggests many French voters are discontent with their current political options, which could result in the rise of anti-establishment parties and the emergence of new protest movements like the yellow vests.

Quarterly ForecastsJun 29, 2020 | 00:02 GMT

2020 Third-Quarter Forecast

While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.

GuidanceJun 27, 2020 | 15:00 GMT

A man is detained by riot police in downtown Hong Kong during a pro-democracy demonstration on May 27, 2020.

The Weekly Rundown: West Bank Annexations, Grim Global Economic Forecasts and Failed Nile Negotiations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

AssessmentsJun 26, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

A picture shows the Israeli settlement of Mitzpe Kramim in the West Bank on June 18, 2020.

Israel's Annexation Plans Will Leave It in Need of New Allies

Israel's impending annexations in the West Bank will not spark immediate international backlash, but growing pro-Palestine sentiment in the United States and Europe will ultimately leave it politically and economically isolated in the long term. This will lead Israel to seek increased partnerships with countries whose citizens and politicians are less invested in the prospect of a Palestinian state, such as Russia and China, though doing so will come at the risk of further stoking U.S. ire.

Palestinian Territories

India

COVID-19

Israel's Survival Strategy

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SnapshotsJun 25, 2020 | 18:08 GMT

The U.S.-EU Trade War Is Poised to Intensify

The U.S.-EU trade war continues to brew and could see Brussels and Washington move forward with more tariffs through the rest of the year, even as both sides reckon with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 24, the U.S. Trade Representative's office published a list for the public comment outlining $4.3 billion worth of European products that could be subject to new tariffs as early as August. This latest escalation is part of its 16-year dispute between Washington and Brussels over government subsidies to the U.S.-based aircraft maker Boeing and its chief European rival, Airbus. Trade negotiations between the United States and European Union have already been virtually non-existent this year, due in part to the pandemic, as well as major disagreements on issues [such as agriculture. Even if they do occur, last-minute trade talks to try to avert the escalation over aircraft subsidies will thus likely fail, as both sides

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

SnapshotsJun 25, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

The Worst Global Recession in 80 Years Is Here. Where’s the Bottom?

Prospects for a quick global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic are officially dead, with all major international financial institutions and private forecasters now projecting huge cumulative losses and an uneven, prolonged climb out of the world’s steepest recession in 80 years. Economic models have proven incapable of dealing with uncertainties and discontinuities of the current unprecedented global lockdown. But even though magnitudes vary, recent forecasts are headed in the same direction -- down.

Middle East and North Africa

On GeopoliticsJun 24, 2020 | 19:11 GMT

An Indian fighter jet flies over a mountain range near the disputed territory of Ladakh on June 23, 2020.

A Border Clash Portends a New Indian Strategy of Less Talk, More Action Against China

Following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's strong condemnation of Chinese actions at the Line of Actual (LAC) control, India is poised for a significant strategy shift in how it manages its contested border with China. The June 15 clash in the long-disputed territory of Ladakh, which marked the first time Indian troops have died at the hands of Chinese forces since 1975, has highlighted India's failure to dissuade China from attempting to permanently alter the balance of power along the border via diplomatic and confidence-building measures. This has left New Delhi more likely to pursue more confrontational options, which will undoubtedly have its risks, though India's battle-tested military may find such an escalation to its short-term advantage.

Modernizing China’s Military

China in Transition

India's Own Worst Enemy

SnapshotsJun 24, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

Seeking a Political Win, Trump Takes Aim at Immigration Visas

After weeks of speculation, U.S. President Donald Trump finally issued a presidential proclamation on June 22 outlining visa changes that will significantly impede the ability of U.S. tech companies and universities to attract international talent and investment. Should they become permanent, the changes could place the United States' competitive advantage as a business hub in jeopardy by making U.S. visa programs more difficult for foreigners to access.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

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