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AssessmentsJul 2, 2025 | 17:30 GMT
Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.
Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions
Vietnam's historic administrative restructuring will trigger short-term bureaucratic friction but lays the foundation for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency and improved investment conditions if the government effectively implements the changes over time. On June 30, Vietnam officially rolled out its most significant administrative restructuring in its post-unification history. This followed the National Assembly passing a resolution on June 12 to merge the country's 63 provincial‑level units into 34, now comprising 28 provinces and six centrally governed, provincial-level cities. This reform rests on an earlier April 12 directive from the Central Committee that authorized merging 52 previously existing provinces into 23 new units, the elimination of the entire district level (formerly there were 696 mid-level jurisdictions between province and commune), and a 60-70 % reduction in commune-level units under a new province-commune two‑tier model (with the prior inclusion of the district level constituting a three-tier model). The new local administrations formally assumed full
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Vietnam
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsJul 2, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries
The U.S. decision to pause key arms deliveries to Ukraine will degrade Ukraine's ability to repel intensifying Russian attacks, raising the risk that Kyiv could eventually be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms in future peace negotiations if Washington does not reverse its decision or if Ukraine fails to secure alternative support. On July 1, the United States announced it was pausing the delivery of key military aid to Ukraine. According to U.S. officials cited in multiple media reports, the weapons affected by this decision include interceptors for the Patriot air defense system, precision-guided artillery shells and air-launched missiles compatible with Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets. While the list of delayed weapons has not been made public, if the media reports are accurate, the freeze will impact deliveries of weapons that are critical to Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities. On July 2, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it had not received any official
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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SnapshotsJun 27, 2025 | 20:19 GMT
A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.
The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals
The upcoming Mercosur summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and progressing new free trade agreements amid the rise of U.S. protectionism. On July 2-3, Buenos Aires will host the 66th meeting of Mercosur's Common Market Council (CMC) and presidential summit. Discussions will focus on the April 11 agreement reached by Mercosur foreign ministers to temporarily expand the number of imported goods each member country is allowed to exempt from the bloc's Common External Tariff (CET). Until December 2028, the five members of the South American trade bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) will be allowed to apply their own unilateral tariffs on 150 items, up from the previous 100 items. This will, in turn, give Mercosur nations more flexibility in managing their foreign trade policies, including by potentially negotiating narrow tariff-free deals with countries outside the bloc without violating Mercosur rules.
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Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Paraguay
Uruguay
Economics
Global Trade
Situation ReportJun 27, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
China: Removal of Commanders, Nuclear Scientist Signals Deepening Military Purge
China removed Gen. Miao Hua from the Central Military Commission and expelled Navy Chief of Staff Vice Adm. Li Hanjun and nuclear scientist Liu Shipeng from the National People's Congress, marking a sharp escalation in Chinese President Xi Jinping's military purge, the South China Morning Post reported on June 27.
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China
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
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