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AssessmentsDec 10, 2025 | 19:15 GMT
Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.
U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization
The United States is unlikely to impose an expansive terrorist designation on the Muslim Brotherhood, choosing instead to focus on specific branches and individuals and emboldening anti-Brotherhood governments to take harder stances against the movement. On Nov. 24, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order starting the process to designate chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). The order calls for the secretary of state, secretary of the treasury, attorney general and director of national intelligence to submit a joint report in 30 days regarding the designation of Muslim Brotherhood chapters in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and potentially elsewhere. After 45 days, the White House intends to impose FTO designations on the branches the report finds to be backing terrorism. The move comes against the backdrop of Florida and Texas declaring the Brotherhood and a Brotherhood-affiliated Muslim civil rights organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), as
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United States
Middle East and North Africa
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportDec 4, 2025 | 17:19 GMT
Israel, Gaza: Second-to-Last Hostage Handed Over, Trump Insists Second Ceasefire Phase Is Incoming
Israeli officials said they had received the remains of a Thai worker killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel, leaving just one more body in the Gaza Strip of the 251 taken that day and signalling the end of the first phase of the U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas ceasefire, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 4.
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 26, 2025 | 16:08 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade
Faced with the risk of U.S. financial sanctions, China and some other countries have sought to de-dollarize their international trade. While this will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, it will do little to undermine the position of the dollar as the preeminent international trade and finance currency over the next decade.
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United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsNov 20, 2025 | 20:11 GMT
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa delivers a speech in Damascus on July 3, 2025, during the unveiling of the "New Visual Identity of the Syrian Arab Republic."
The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State
Syria's entry into the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State coalition will bolster the country's reconstruction and increase pressure on the jihadist group, but Syria's Western outreach will risk alienating hard-liners in the transitional government and could eventually help revitalize the Islamic State if popular expectations are not met. On Nov. 10-12, Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa made his first official visit to Washington, where he held meetings at the White House with U.S. President Donald Trump and senior national security officials. During the visit, the two sides announced that Syria would join the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat the Islamic State, marking the first formal security cooperation agreement between Damascus and Washington since the terror group emerged during Syria's civil war in the early 2010s. The announcement included plans for a joint coordination mechanism focused on intelligence sharing and operations against Islamic State cells in the Syrian desert and along the Euphrates
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United States
Syria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 17, 2025 | 21:46 GMT
Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum.
Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition
Although a de-escalation of Sudan's civil war is becoming more likely, the Sudanese Armed Forces is unlikely to agree to U.S.-led proposals beyond the ceasefire stage due to political considerations, with the ensuing deadlock likely entrenching Sudan's de facto partition and potentially leading to an eventual re-escalation in fighting. On Nov. 6, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, announced that it had accepted proposals by the United States, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia -- a grouping known as the Quad -- for a humanitarian truce in its more than two-year civil war against the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF. The announcement came shortly after the RSF seized the western city of el-Fasher on Oct. 26 following an over 18-month siege that killed and displaced tens of thousands of civilians. Numerous reports have since emerged of RSF fighters conducting widespread atrocities against civilians in el-Fasher, including ethnically-motivated
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Sudan
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 17, 2025 | 19:55 GMT
Excavation crews work amid rubble in Hamad City, west of Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 26, 2025.
Gaza Reconstruction Likely To Take Years and Fuel Palestinian Emigration
The reconstruction of Gaza will be slow because of conditions on governance by donor countries and security and investment risks, which will likely fuel radicalization and emigration from the Strip. Multiple plans for Gaza's reconstruction have been presented since the Oct. 10 Gaza ceasefire entered into force. On Oct. 16, Mohammed Mustafa, the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, announced that the Palestinian Authority had formed a $67 billion five-year plan to reconstruct the Gaza Strip, which would require foreign funding. Initially, the plan would focus on increasing humanitarian aid in the Strip but would later expand to reconstruction. Separately, in late October, an Israeli official suggested that reconstruction in the Israeli-controlled portion of the Gaza Strip could begin immediately, implying that there could be dual paths to reconstruction, with quicker progress in the Israeli-controlled area. U.S. and Israeli officials have ruled out allocating reconstruction funds to the Hamas-controlled areas
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 14, 2025 | 19:26 GMT
A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote.
The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia will focus on pragmatic investments in projects in the final stretch of Vision 2030, likely feeding into existing diversification efforts, but this will not be enough to provide long-term stability to the Saudi political economy, leaving Riyadh wedded to an implicit subsidy system that could invite future instability.
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Saudi Arabia
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsNov 12, 2025 | 20:03 GMT
Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen.
What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security
Israel is highly likely to launch another military offensive against the Houthis in the coming months, which will prompt the group to resume attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, and could also reignite Yemen's civil war and subsequent Houthi attacks on the Gulf, while creating security vacuums for al Qaeda to exploit. In a recent letter to the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Houthi military chief Maj. Gen. Yusuf Hassan al-Madani signalled that the group had paused its attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea, but threatened to resume operations if Israel renewed its Gaza offensive. This comes as Israel and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement have exchanged a series of tit-for-tat threats of military confrontation in recent weeks, hinting at the potential for renewed confrontation. Most notably, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Nov. 2 that his country was preparing to take further military action against the
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Israel
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 22:41 GMT
Entrance signage is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on July 23, 2024.
Why Saudi Arabia Won't Backfill Russia's Sanctioned Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will likely prioritize cooperation with Russia on oil production policy amid U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and pressure on Riyadh to compensate for lost supply, even if it risks angering the United States. Eight OPEC+ members, which have been voluntarily cutting oil production, agreed at their Nov. 2 virtual meeting to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, but to pause production increases for the first three months of 2026. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was reportedly the main proponent of the three-month pause in production hikes, as the meeting came less than two weeks after the United States sanctioned Russia's two largest oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Oct. 22. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, reportedly agreed to the pause because oil demand typically slows in the first quarter of the year. The pause also gives Saudi Arabia and its
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Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Russia
Energy
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