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AssessmentsDec 12, 2025 | 17:12 GMT
Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024.
Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union
The Tunisian government's likely passage of a contentious finance bill will elevate tensions with the country's largest labor union, opening the door to a potential expansion of strike and protest activity, but reforms to increase production will likely improve the manufacturing and agricultural export sectors. On Dec. 10, Tunisia's 2026 Finance Bill advanced from the National Assembly to President Kais Saied, who is expected to approve it; upon approval, the measure will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026. The bill combines the annual budget with other financial measures, including wage and pension increases, provisions to improve fiscal consolidation (including a wealth tax to expand Tunisia's tax base), value-added tax reductions on manufacturing and some agricultural production inputs, and reforms to drone laws to boost agricultural profitability. One particularly contentious provision is Article 15, which approves wage increases for public and private sector workers at a reported average annual rate of
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Tunisia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 22:16 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.
Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026
While Ethiopia is unlikely to launch a large-scale invasion of Eritrea in 2026, worsening tensions over sea access and Asmara's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government increase the likelihood of intensifying proxy clashes along the border that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation. On Oct. 28, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called for international mediation regarding Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, stressing that maritime access was a "matter of survival" for Ethiopia. This came after Abiy claimed in early September that it was only a "matter of time" before Ethiopia regained access to the Eritrean port of Assab, arguing that the loss of the port following Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia in 1993 had been a "mistake." These comments came as Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, in early October of entering a pact to "wage
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Eritrea
Ethiopia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 11, 2025 | 15:57 GMT
Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.
The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture
Israel's upcoming deployment of a new laser aerial defense system will reduce threats from short-range rockets and drones while reinforcing a long-term push for defense self-sufficiency and expanding opportunities for international defense production partnerships and exports. Israel is set to deploy the Iron Beam laser defense system by the end of the year, following the completion of operational testing of the system in September. The defense ministry and primary Israeli military contractors Elbit and Rafael have confirmed that the first batteries are scheduled for transfer to the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, on Dec. 30. Initial operational use of the system is expected in 2026. If implemented as scheduled, the deployment will make Israel the first country to field a combat-ready laser air defense system. The defense ministry reported that the 100-kilowatt system successfully intercepted missiles, mortar rounds, UAVs and other aerial threats during weeks of testing, demonstrating the ability
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United States
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Palestinian Territories
Yemen
Economics
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 8, 2025 | 20:30 GMT
The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.
The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory
Increased military mobilization, failed negotiations and persistent aggressive rhetoric amid broader geopolitical, ideological and economic goals indicate that the United States will most likely escalate its military campaign in the Caribbean to attacks in Venezuelan territory over the coming days or weeks. Since October, the United States has increased its military presence in the Caribbean, especially with the Nov. 16 arrival of the USS Gerald Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier. The U.S. military has also continued to conduct attacks against alleged drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, which have reached a total of 23 strikes, killing 87 people. Media leaks revealed that in the first of such operations, on Sept. 2, the U.S. military carried out a follow-up strike, potentially killing survivors. The allegations have sparked controversy within the United States, prompting investigations in Congress and raising concerns about the potential commitment of war crimes. Despite
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United States
Venezuela
Military & Security
On GeopoliticsDec 4, 2025 | 18:18 GMT
Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.
Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation
In October, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense published its biennial National Defense Report (NDR), which describes the state of Taiwan's security environment, as well as the goals for and challenges to developing the island nation's military. The report suggests the Taiwan military's arms procurement and recruitment capabilities are growing to help it deter and defend against a Chinese invasion. But it is still unclear how well Taiwan could coordinate a whole-of-society defense effort, necessitating deeper informal ties with the West and the broadcasting of China's aggressive gray-zone activities to gain Western support. Likewise, Taiwan's ability to deter Chinese aggression shy of an invasion (e.g., a blockade) depends as much on political signals and Lai's willingness to escalate as it does on Taiwan's military capabilities. The upshot is that Taipei is demonstrating growing intent and tactical capabilities but not yet the administrative capacity to carry out a sustained defense. Moreover, perhaps
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China
Taiwan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsDec 2, 2025 | 20:45 GMT
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.
What To Expect as Putin Visits India
Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to India will reinforce the symbolic strength of bilateral ties and support incremental cooperation across defense, energy and trade, though India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and sanctions and continues its shift toward defense and technology diversification. Putin will visit India on Dec. 4-5 for the annual India-Russia summit, where he will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Russia and India have held summits each year since 2000, following the signing of the Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership, which created their highest-level institutionalized dialogue. These meetings, typically hosted alternately by each country, aim to deepen the strategic partnership through high-level discussions.
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Russia
India
Economics
Energy
Global Trade
Military & Security
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