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AssessmentsSep 27, 2023 | 16:24 GMT
Soldiers conduct a patrol on July 22, 2023, in the Salvadorean municipality of Colon, where the MS-13 gang reportedly remains active.
The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 1
With the success of El Salvador's counter-crime state of emergency in decreasing the country's homicide rate to its lowest in history, similar measures have become attractive throughout Latin America, though extensive implementation would likely see only limited success, instead creating operational, safety and reputational risks for the region. In March 2022, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele imposed a state of emergency to combat violent crime, with a focus on the country's two largest criminal groups, Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18. A massive crackdown on organized crime under the state of emergency led to a dramatic drop in the country's homicide rate, making it one of the safest countries in the region. Seeing El Salvador's success, in November 2022, Honduran President Xiomara Castro implemented a similar (albeit significantly less extensive) state of emergency to combat violent crime and extortion. Elsewhere in the region, elected officials and political candidates have called for
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Colombia
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Peru
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJul 28, 2023 | 17:13 GMT
The flags of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (L) and the Republic of Cyprus (R) are divided by a crack.
Despite EU-Turkey Rapprochement, Cypriot Reunification Remains Out of Reach
EU-Turkey rapprochement is unlikely to result in Cyprus' reunification, but increased dialogue over the future of the island could improve the political climate, leading to mutually beneficial economic opportunities. Cyprus is pushing the European Union to appoint a special envoy to restart talks with Turkey over the reunification of the island, a third of which a Turkish-backed government controls. Additionally, Cyprus wants to tie these conversations to recent negotiations about Turkey's eventual accession to the European Union. Meanwhile, the bloc's foreign policy office circulated a document on July 20 that called on member states to consider Turkey's EU membership chances alongside ways to "actively contribute to the speedy resumption of Cyprus settlement talks." Following the meeting, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell confirmed that EU foreign ministers expressed interest in developing a stronger relationship with Turkey, subject to certain conditions including a "sustainable de-escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean" and "solving
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Turkey
Europe
Cyprus
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Contributor PerspectivesJul 1, 2019 | 09:15 GMT
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele is seen during his inauguration ceremony in San Salvador, El Salvador, on June 1, 2019.
El Salvador's Combative New President Faces a Perilous Balancing Act
With a style and pedigree different from that of his modern predecessors, El Salvador's new president came out swinging against the status quo almost as soon as his inauguration ended on June 1. Nayib Bukele's supporters see his willingness to break with politics as usual as a sign that El Salvador may finally shake off the lingering vestiges of its 1980-1992 civil war. Until now, every Salvadoran president has been associated with one of the main protagonists in that brutal conflict, the leftist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front or the conservative Nationalist Republican Alliance. Part of Bukele's appeal is that he represents a break with the past, but change will come at a price in one of the world's most violent countries. Unbalancing power dynamics too quickly in El Salvador could provoke a violent and destabilizing response.
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El Salvador
Contributor PerspectivesMay 11, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Police inspect one of four buses attacked by alleged gang members July 13, 2018, in Guatemala City.
Building a Better Picture of Crime in Guatemala City
While the utility of data on crime in a given city cannot be denied, its lack of precision can create problems. Presenting an entire zone of a city as safe ignores dangerous areas that exist in every sector, while some zones known to struggle with violence do have some well-developed, relatively safe areas that offer lucrative opportunities. While finding good data on crime can prove challenging, the void can be filled by tapping an unconventional and often-overlooked source: Package delivery services, taxi companies and fast-food restaurants that deliver have access to large data sets based on the direct observations of their staffs.
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Guatemala
Stratfor Threat Lens
On SecurityJan 15, 2019 | 12:00 GMT
U.S. Border Patrol agents ride ATVs alongside an unfinished portion of a border wall between Ciudad Juarez in Mexico and Santa Teresa in the United States on April 17, 2018.
Why Walls and Sensors Aren't the Answer to the U.S.-Mexico Border Dilemma
As the longest government shutdown in U.S. history drags on, one bone of contention is hogging all of the headlines: The U.S. border with Mexico. Discussions of the threat posed by an unsecured frontier and of the efficacy of border walls and other security measures have sparked fierce debate over how best to secure the boundary. Because the topic has spawned a great deal of interest – and perhaps just as much misinformation – a discussion of these issues is timely.
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Mexico
United States
Social Issues
Military & Security
The Importance of Mexico
Crossing Borders
AssessmentsOct 9, 2016 | 13:01 GMT
El Salvador: From Bloody Civil War to Devastating Criminal Violence
El Salvador: From Bloody Civil War to Devastating Criminal Violence
In 2015, El Salvador, with an alarming 104 homicides committed per 100,000 residents, was named the world's most violent country. It is a place with a long history of violence -- from the Spanish incursion in the 16th century fiercely resisted by Pipil warriors to the military government's massacre of thousands of rural indigenous citizens in 1932. And then there was the civil war that raged between 1979 and 1992, killing an estimated 75,000 people in a country of just a few million. Today, El Salvador's legacy of violence is most evident in its gang culture, most notably perpetrated by Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, and the 18th Street Gang, or Calle 18. Both groups emerged from a migratory channel opened between the United States and El Salvador. Beginning in the 1980s, Washington gave thousands of El Salvadorans, largely from poor, rural areas, temporary protective status in the United States. But
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El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
United States
Economics
Military & Security
AssessmentsSep 1, 2016 | 09:30 GMT
A New Phase in Thailand's Age-Old Insurgency
A New Phase in Thailand's Age-Old Insurgency
One of Asia's most opaque and intractable insurgencies may be expanding. Over the past week, Thai police have begun asserting that southern rebels were responsible for a string of bombings and arson attacks that occurred on Aug. 11-12, the birthday of Thailand's venerated queen and the country's Mother's Day. Separatist militants in the country's southernmost provinces, a Malay-speaking, predominantly Muslim region known historically as Patani, have been waging an insurrection against the state for more than two centuries. Though the insurgency has killed thousands of people -- more than 6,000 since 2004, when violence resurged after a two-decade lull -- it has generally been confined to the deep south. The recent attacks, however, targeted tourist hot spots across eight Thai provinces far north of where the separatists typically operate. The military government, which has staked its legitimacy in part on restoring law and order to the country, continues to downplay any
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Malaysia
Thailand
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
AssessmentsFeb 9, 2016 | 09:00 GMT
El Salvador: Bleak Prospects in the Face of Criminal Violence
El Salvador: Bleak Prospects in the Face of Criminal Violence
Encompassing El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Central America's "Northern Triangle" is one of the world's most violent regions. The area saw 17,000 murders in 2015 alone. The region's weak governments have proved unable to stem the growth of gang-related organized crime. Until El Salvador -- and the region, for that matter -- deals with its deeper economic and sociological problems and is able to provide a stable and non-corrupt government, the problem of powerful organized crime gangs and the violence that accompanies them will continue.
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El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
United States
Politics
Military & Security
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