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Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025 | 00:00 GMT
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.
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Situation ReportJun 26, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
U.S., Mexico: Treasury Restricts U.S. Business With Three Mexican Financial Institutions Accused of Cartel Financing
The U.S. Treasury Department identified Mexican banks CIBanco and Intercam and brokerage company Vector Casa de Bolsa as being of primary money laundering concern in connection with illicit opioid trafficking over alleged laundering of millions of dollars for cartels, according to a June 25 Treasury press release.
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Mexico
United States
Economics
AssessmentsJun 18, 2025 | 19:39 GMT
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022.
What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out?
The Africa Corps' reported takeover of remaining Wagner Group units in Mali indicates that Russia will likely sustain bilateral defense cooperation over the coming year, but Moscow's military support is unlikely to prevent Mali's security environment from deteriorating further, portending rising threats to the capital, Bamako. On June 6, Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group announced on its Telegram channel that it would exit Mali, where it was first deployed in December 2021 to support counterterrorism operations and provide personal protection for the country's Russia-friendly junta. The same day, the Africa Corps -- another Russian paramilitary organization that is closely backed by Russia's Ministry of Defense -- announced that it would remain in the country. Thereafter, diplomatic sources quoted by Agence France-Presse said on June 8 that the Africa Corps had taken over the Wagner Group's remaining military units in Mali. Amid the reorganization of Russia's military presence in the country, Mali's
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Mali
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 12, 2025 | 16:32 GMT
An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.
As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Flounder, Israel Inches Toward Escalation
As U.S.-Iran nuclear talks flounder, Israel is growing increasingly likely to strike Iran's nuclear program, which would likely lead Iran to target Israeli and potentially U.S. assets in the region, as well as weaken Iran's reformist-moderate presidency and empower its hard-liners. The United States' self-imposed 60-day deadline for negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran ended on June 12 without a deal, and the next round of indirect negotiations, currently scheduled for June 15 in Oman, are reportedly in jeopardy. The State Department announced on June 11 that it ordered all nonessential personnel to depart Iraq, and U.S. Central Command said the U.S. defense secretary had "authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations" in the Middle East. The drawdown in the U.S. presence is due to growing U.S. intelligence that Israel may soon strike Iran's nuclear program with or without U.S. approval. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry and atomic energy
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United States
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Lebanon
Yemen
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJun 11, 2025 | 19:25 GMT
Cargo shipping containers are seen stacked at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California, on April 15, 2025.
U.S.-China Framework To Implement Trade Deal Will Only Temporarily Ease Tensions
As part of the new framework reached to implement its May 12 trade deal with China, the United States might ease or pause technology restrictions on the country, but it will eventually expand them again, potentially causing China to restrict its rare earth exports and/or other critical raw materials once more. On June 10, U.S. and Chinese negotiators reached an agreement on a framework to implement their May 12 trade deal that saw both sides scale back the sweeping tariffs they had implemented against each other in early April. No details about the framework have yet been released, and both countries' leaders still need to approve the deal. However, in a Truth Social post on June 11, U.S. President Donald Trump said students from China would be allowed to continue studying in the United States, appearing to walk back plans announced on May 28 to "aggressively revoke" visas for Chinese
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United States
China
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Global Trade
Politics
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