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AssessmentsNov 7, 2025 | 16:56 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1
Kenya will likely remain East Africa's leading trade gateway in the medium term, but Tanzania will likely narrow this lead over the coming decade as it capitalizes on larger transport infrastructure investments, growing international demand for minerals from Central Africa's "Copper Belt" and Kenya's challenges in developing Lamu port. Africa's geography and history have denied many countries on the continent direct access to the sea, leaving landlocked states struggling to reach global markets and support their economic development. East Africa is no stranger to these challenges, with Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia and Malawi all lacking direct sea access. Against this backdrop, China's state-owned China Civil Engineering Construction Corp., or CCECC, signed on Sept. 29 a $1.4 billion deal with Zambia and Tanzania to refurbish the Tazara rail line, which connects Zambia's Copperbelt province to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam. This came after Tanzanian Prime Minister
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South Sudan
Burundi
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Ethiopia
Kenya
Malawi
Mozambique
Rwanda
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
United States
China
Japan
Europe
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsNov 5, 2025 | 22:41 GMT
Entrance signage is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on July 23, 2024.
Why Saudi Arabia Won't Backfill Russia's Sanctioned Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will likely prioritize cooperation with Russia on oil production policy amid U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and pressure on Riyadh to compensate for lost supply, even if it risks angering the United States. Eight OPEC+ members, which have been voluntarily cutting oil production, agreed at their Nov. 2 virtual meeting to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, but to pause production increases for the first three months of 2026. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was reportedly the main proponent of the three-month pause in production hikes, as the meeting came less than two weeks after the United States sanctioned Russia's two largest oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Oct. 22. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, reportedly agreed to the pause because oil demand typically slows in the first quarter of the year. The pause also gives Saudi Arabia and its
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Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Russia
Energy
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 22:48 GMT
A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025.
Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?
The United States is pressuring Nigeria to take visible action against armed groups targeting Christian communities, but Abuja faces multiple constraints to curb the violence, and fresh instances of high-profile intercommunal attacks would increase the likelihood of U.S. airstrikes in Nigeria. On Oct. 31, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he was designating Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern due to the killing of Christians in the country. The following day, Trump warned that his administration would ''immediately stop all aid and assistance'' to Nigeria if its government ''continue[d] to allow the killing of Christians,'' and said he had instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to prepare for ''possible action'' in the country. Trump later told reporters on board Air Force One that this could involve launching air strikes or deploying ground troops. In response to Trump's comments, a spokesperson for Nigerian President
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Nigeria
United States
Military & Security
AssessmentsNov 4, 2025 | 16:48 GMT
The COP30 logo at the central building is seen ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 on Nov. 3, 2025 in Belem, Brazil.
A Breakthrough on Climate Targets is Unlikely at Brazil's COP30
At the COP30 climate conference, countries are likely to reach only limited agreements on climate financing and carbon market frameworks while failing to achieve consensus on phasing out fossil fuels, making significant progress on implementation unlikely and postponing key decisions for another year. Brazil will host the 30th U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP30) from Nov. 10 to 21 in the Amazonian city of Belem. The event's agenda has been structured around six thematic axes: energy, industry and transport; forests, oceans and biodiversity; agriculture and food systems; cities, infrastructure and water; human and social development; and cross-cutting issues. The Brazilian government is seeking to build on previous COP outcomes while pushing the transition from negotiation to execution across mitigation, adaptation and climate finance. Delegates from more than 170 countries will seek to finalize the implementation phase of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which consists of five-year review cycles of countries' climate action
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Brazil
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsNov 3, 2025 | 19:16 GMT
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka logo is seen outside the bank's headquarters in Colombo on July 6, 2023.
Sri Lanka on Track To Unlock Next IMF Disbursement, but Challenges Remain
The International Monetary Fund will likely approve the fifth review of Sri Lanka's bailout program due to the country's strong fiscal performance, steady progress on debt restructuring and political stability, though high poverty levels and delayed state-enterprise reforms will remain key risks. Sri Lanka is awaiting approval from the IMF Executive Board for the fifth review of its bailout program, which would unlock approximately $347 million in funding, bringing the total funds released under its nearly $3 billion support program to around $2.04 billion. This follows an IMF staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka on Oct. 9, where both sides agreed that while fiscal performance has been strong, sustaining momentum will require improved tax compliance, a broader tax base and plugging revenue leakages, among other reforms.
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Sri Lanka
Economics
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 22:01 GMT
A U.S. Marine V-22 Osprey takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport, formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, on Sept. 13, 2025, in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.
The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean
The United States will likely expand the frequency and geographic scope of strikes targeting alleged drug traffickers over the next year, with the potential for attacks to move onshore in a range of countries across Latin America and the Caribbean, creating physical safety and operating challenges for organizations, as well as compliance risks due to expanding sanctions enforcement. Since Oct. 17, U.S. military strikes targeting alleged drug traffickers in the southern Caribbean Sea have increased in frequency and geographic scope, with strikes off the coast of Colombia and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The United States publicly acknowledged a total of eight strikes in 12 days, an escalation from the previous rate of announced strikes of approximately one every other week. The first strike, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on Oct. 20, occurred on Oct. 17 off the coast of Colombia, targeting alleged members of the National Liberation
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Belize
Colombia
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Mexico
Bahamas
Trinidad and Tobago
United States
Venezuela
Jamaica
Military & Security
AssessmentsOct 30, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.
New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy
New U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil producers mark the most consequential escalation of economic pressure on Moscow since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which signals Washington's intent to constrict the Kremlin's war financing, while testing oil market stability and Putin's capacity to endure prolonged attrition. The United States' Oct. 22 sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce roughly 5 million barrels per day (bpd), representing about half of Russia's total crude output and over 5% of global oil production. The two companies also export nearly 2 million bpd, representing roughly two-thirds of Russia's total crude exports. Announced by the U.S. Treasury as a direct effort to pressure Moscow into a ceasefire, the measures bar U.S. and foreign banks from financing or clearing transactions and include a 30-day wind-down period ending on Nov. 21. They build on the United States and other Western countries'
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United States
Russia
Economics
Energy
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsOct 30, 2025 | 18:10 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.
China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely
The U.S.-China talks in South Korea produced a framework deal favorable to China, with future trade war escalations likely over the next year as Washington and Beijing seek to enforce their own interpretations of the new measures. On Oct. 30, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade matters in Busan, South Korea. They announced that the United States will reduce its 20% fentanyl tariff on China to 10%, in exchange for Chinese cooperation on curbing the flow of fentanyl precursor exports. The United States will also forgo its previously threatened 100% additional tariff on China, and has agreed to pause its Section 301 investigation into Chinese shipping, which presumably includes suspending hefty U.S. fees on China-built, -operated or -owned vessels. The U.S. Commerce Department's decision to target all majority-owned subsidiaries of Entity List companies will be suspended for one year as well. China, for
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United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 19:54 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025.
The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders' summit underscored the bloc's efforts to improve cohesion amid U.S.-China competition, from which it is set to benefit economically. But over time, competing trade pressures and internal divergences will test this cohesiveness, with fractures exposing individual members to external and, at times, coercive influence. On Oct. 26-28, the leaders of Southeast Asian countries gathered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the 47th ASEAN Leaders' Summit, joined by high-level representatives from partner countries, including the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump attended the opening day, where he oversaw Thailand and Cambodia signing an expanded ceasefire and joint declaration that formalized and broadened their July truce after deadly border clashes. On the economic track, Washington reached bilateral agreements with four ASEAN members, including a reciprocal trade agreement with Malaysia, a full trade accord with Cambodia, a framework trade deal with Thailand, and a provisional
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United States
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Timor-Leste
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 29, 2025 | 15:05 GMT
Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany.
Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain
After years of stagnation, the German economy will receive a boost from increased government spending on defense and infrastructure, but a failure to implement flanking structural reform will mean that the boost to medium-term economic growth will be limited. In recent weeks, numerous media reports have cast doubt on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ambitious plans to reform the economy. Since taking office in May after forming a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority between his center-right Christian Democratic Union or CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party or SPD, Merz's government has reformed the constitutionally mandated limits on government deficits and has committed to significant increases in defense expenditure and infrastructure, especially of transport. The new government has also agreed to implement reforms aimed at reducing growth-impeding bureaucratic rules governing product markets and infrastructure investment. However, despite these goals, thus far intra-coalition disagreements have translated into more limited practical results
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Germany
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 28, 2025 | 21:01 GMT
The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo.
Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance
Upcoming elections for Egypt's House of Representatives will almost certainly yield another lower legislative chamber that strongly supports President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's priorities, including fiscal consolidation and potential efforts to extend his term. Next month, Egyptians will start casting ballots for all 568 elected seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the country's parliament. The first round will be held Nov. 10-11, followed by the second round on Dec. 3-4. Per Egypt's constitution, the House of Representatives has the authority to draft laws, approve the annual budget and oversee the executive branch. In practice, however, it has provided almost no checks and balances to the executive due to the overwhelming dominance of parties aligned with President al-Sisi; of the body's 596 elected seats, 448 are currently held by pro-government lawmakers, while independents hold 124 seats and opposition parties hold only 24. The upcoming elections are unlikely to
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Egypt
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 27, 2025 | 15:07 GMT
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.
Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in Gaza in an effort to reduce the likelihood of being unseated by a right-wing anti-Netanyahu coalition led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party has seen an uptick in support following the Oct. 8 announcement of the first phase of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire and the Oct. 13 release of all 20 remaining living hostages. Prior to the ceasefire agreement, most polls conducted in the second half of September showed Likud winning around 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset if parliamentary elections due by October 2026 were conducted now. More recently, according to a poll published on Oct. 16 by Zman Yisrael, Likud would win 34 seats and its likely coalition partners a further 25, bringing the total to 59 -- just short of the 61 needed to
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsOct 24, 2025 | 16:19 GMT
A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.
Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks
Turkey will likely initially use diplomatic and political pressure to weaken Northern Cyprus's attempts to restart what are likely to be difficult federalization talks with the Republic of Cyprus. Should they nonetheless advance, an escalation to economic pressure could instead strengthen Northern Cyprus's drive for federalization in the coming years. On Oct. 19, the de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus held a presidential election that resulted in the victory of Republican Turkish Party (CTP) head Tufan Erhurman, a center-left candidate who supports resuming federalization talks with the Greek-dominated Republic of Cyprus after a prolonged suspension of negotiations. Erhurman secured 62% of the vote, achieving a decisive victory over incumbent Ersin Tartar of the National Unity Party (UBP), who had rejected federalization talks and advocated for a two-state solution to the decades-long division of the island between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Two days after the vote, Devlet Bahceli, a Nationalist
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Turkey
Cyprus
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 23, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025.
U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag
The United States will likely use sanctions relief leverage to de-escalate tensions between Syria and Israel and support Syria's economic and reconstruction recovery efforts, while continuing to provide sufficient, albeit diminished, support to the Kurds, enabling them to slow-walk integration with the Syrian government. In recent weeks, the U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, has met with Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and visited the Kurdish-majority northeastern city of al-Hasaka to discuss mechanisms to facilitate the integration of the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the Syrian central government. In March, the SDF and al-Sharaa reached an agreement to integrate SDF institutions into the state, but little progress has been made after separate outbreaks of violence between government forces and minority Alawites and Druze communities led the SDF to seek to maintain their arms out of concern for similar clashes with government forces. However, following Barrack's visits and
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United States
Israel
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
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