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AssessmentsMay 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A photo of Argentina's central bank headquarters in Buenos Aires.
Argentina's Latest Default Doesn't Have to Mean Another Economic Collapse
Argentina's debt restructuring negotiations with creditors appear stuck, but the recent extension of the country's self-imposed deadline for talks with private debt bondholders keeps alive the possibility of reaching some form of a long-term deal. Ultimately, however, debt restructuring will not by itself change the fiscal and monetary policies that initially led to Argentina overborrowing. Whether the country's default again transforms into another full-fledged economic crisis will instead hinge on its government's willingness to reach a compromise with bondholders, as well as produce a credible, long-term economic growth plan that remedies the country's currently untenable levels of public spending. 
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GuidanceApr 30, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
The national flag of Argentina flies above Avenida 9 de Julio, one of the major arteries of Buenos Aires, on Nov. 28, 2018.
By Exiting Trade Talks, Argentina Risks Sealing Mercosur's Fate
Argentina's withdrawal from Mercosur's trade negotiations with South Korea, Singapore, Lebanon, Canada and India does not mean the immediate demise of the South American common market. It will, however, weaken the bloc's ability to ink future trade deals, and brings an additional level of uncertainty to the ratification of Mercosur's already negotiated deals with the European Union and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).
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AssessmentsJan 28, 2020 | 17:36 GMT
Environmentalists stage a protest against a World Economic Forum briefing meeting in Brussels on Jan. 27, 2020.
For the Global Economy, a Sluggish 2020 Awaits
For the global economy in the year ahead, challenges won’t be far away, with uncertainty from unpredictable policymaking on trade and investment, coupled with potential geopolitical disruptions and financial vulnerabilities, leading the way. And if these risks come to pass, the world's leading economies will be hard-pressed to respond in a coordinated, effective manner. Already, international cooperation is frayed as countries look increasingly inward, while slower growth with stagnant incomes could encourage even more economic nationalism than exists at present. Ultimately, the host of threats presents the world's policymakers with a tricky path toward safeguarding growth in the global economy.
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AssessmentsDec 9, 2019 | 10:30 GMT
Close-up of 500 Argentine peso bills stacked on different value notes.
Argentina's Economic Sins Come Back to Bite
When he takes office on Dec. 10, Argentina's new president, Alberto Fernandez, will quickly find his hands tied, having raised expectations of simultaneously increasing government spending while lowering inflation. But while those campaign promises may have earned Fernandez the seat, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the many other foreign creditors who keep Argentina's lights on won't tolerate such visions of grandeur. Without a long-term program to solve the country's economic crisis, or the cash to make good on its heaping pile of IOUs, Buenos Aires will likely be forced to once again default on a large part of its debt next year, sending the already impoverished country even deeper into a tailspin. 
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AssessmentsNov 11, 2019 | 09:45 GMT
The European Commission's president-elect, Ursula von der Leyen, talks to the media during the unveiling of her new team for the 2019-2024 term. A graphic showing the specific commissioners is displayed on a large screen behind her.
What a New Commission Means for EU Policy
A new European Commission led by President Ursula von der Leyen is slated to take over in December after the European Parliament approves her team later this month. In preparation for her new post, von der Leyen has outlined a bold "geopolitical" vision that focuses on defending the European Union's interests amid growing competition among global powers like the United States and China. But whether the president-elect's commissioners will actually be able to follow through on her big plans once they take office next month will prove a far different story, as they'll be forced to work within the confines of the continent's increasingly divisive political climate and gloomy economic forecast. 
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SnapshotsOct 28, 2019 | 16:53 GMT
Argentina Has Elected a Leftist President. Now What?
Center-left candidate Alberto Fernandez won Argentina's Oct. 27 presidential election with roughly 48 percent of the vote, eliminating the conservative incumbent Mauricio Macri, who received roughly 40 percent. Fernandez defends greater state intervention in the economy and expansionary fiscal policies, as opposed to Macri's business-friendly and deficit-tightening positions. Fernandez's inauguration as president on Dec. 10 will mark a change of direction for Argentina. But with the economy expected to shrink by another 3 percent this year, the harsh realities of Argentina's financial situation risk cutting Fernandez's honeymoon period short once he takes office in December. 
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AssessmentsOct 26, 2019 | 13:31 GMT
Argentina’s economic problems have opened the door to a return of populist policies after the presidential election in October.
In Argentina, an Economic Crisis Portends Political Chaos
In the primary presidential vote on Aug. 11, populist candidate Alberto Fernandez, handily defeated the country's conservative president, Mauricio Macri. For months, polls had given Macri a fair chance of winning the Oct. 27 presidential ballot, and Fernandez's victory caught financial markets largely off guard, deepening the country's economic tailspin.  Instead of using the upset to fight even harder for his reelection, Macri will spend the next few weeks trying to prevent the country's financial situation from deteriorating further. But in doing so, the Argentine president faces a steep uphill battle. This means that the influx of uncertainty now shrouding country's future will likely only get murkier in the lead-up to the October vote -- and probably long after that, should a protectionist government wind up back in Buenos Aires before the year's end. 
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SnapshotsJul 1, 2019 | 18:00 GMT
EU, Mercosur: Why a Trade Deal Struck After 20 Years of Talks May Never Take Force
After 20 years of negotiations, the European Union and the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) reached a draft deal for a free trade agreement on June 28. While most European and South American governments praised the deal, it will be years before it can actually be implemented, as many of the agreement's details have yet to be determined. But most importantly, the deal still needs to be ratified by the 28 governments of the European Union and the four governments of Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay), along with the European Parliament. And because of this, domestic pushback and potential political transitions in South America and Europe in the coming months risk killing the deal before it's ever enforced. 
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SITUATION REPORTJun 26, 2019 | 15:47 GMT
EU, South America: 7 European Countries Push Brussels to Close Mercosur Trade Deal
In a June 20 letter to the European Commission, the leaders of Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, the Czech Republic and Latvia expressed their support of Brussels' intention to close on a "balanced and reasonable" free trade agreement with the South American trade bloc Mercosur, Politico reported June 26.
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Quarterly ForecastsJun 17, 2019 | 14:35 GMT
Stratfor's 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast focuses on the most important factors affecting the international system this quarter.
2019 Third-Quarter Forecast
The United States will remain at the center of world events this quarter as its strategic competition with China escalates, relations with Iran deteriorate and the threat of tariffs or sanctions loom over all.
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