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AssessmentsMay 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A photo of Argentina's central bank headquarters in Buenos Aires.
Argentina's Latest Default Doesn't Have to Mean Another Economic Collapse
Argentina's debt restructuring negotiations with creditors appear stuck, but the recent extension of the country's self-imposed deadline for talks with private debt bondholders keeps alive the possibility of reaching some form of a long-term deal. Ultimately, however, debt restructuring will not by itself change the fiscal and monetary policies that
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GuidanceApr 30, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
The national flag of Argentina flies above Avenida 9 de Julio, one of the major arteries of Buenos Aires, on Nov. 28, 2018.
By Exiting Trade Talks, Argentina Risks Sealing Mercosur's Fate
Argentina's withdrawal from Mercosur's trade negotiations with South Korea, Singapore, Lebanon, Canada and India does not mean the immediate demise of the South American common market. It will, however, weaken the bloc's ability to ink future trade deals, and brings an additional level of uncertainty to the ratification of Mercosur's already
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AssessmentsJan 28, 2020 | 17:36 GMT
Environmentalists stage a protest against a World Economic Forum briefing meeting in Brussels on Jan. 27, 2020.
For the Global Economy, a Sluggish 2020 Awaits
For the global economy in the year ahead, challenges won’t be far away, with uncertainty from unpredictable policymaking on trade and investment, coupled with potential geopolitical disruptions and financial vulnerabilities, leading the way. And if these risks come to pass, the world's leading economies will be hard-pressed to respond in
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AssessmentsOct 26, 2019 | 13:31 GMT
Argentina’s economic problems have opened the door to a return of populist policies after the presidential election in October.
In Argentina, an Economic Crisis Portends Political Chaos
In the primary presidential vote on Aug. 11, populist candidate Alberto Fernandez, handily defeated the country's conservative president, Mauricio Macri. For months, polls had given Macri a fair chance of winning the Oct. 27 presidential ballot, and Fernandez's victory caught financial markets largely off guard, deepening the country's economic tailspin.  Instead of
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SnapshotsJul 1, 2019 | 18:00 GMT
EU, Mercosur: Why a Trade Deal Struck After 20 Years of Talks May Never Take Force
After 20 years of negotiations, the European Union and the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) reached a draft deal for a free trade agreement on June 28. While most European and South American governments praised the deal, it will be years before it can actually be implemented, as many
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SITUATION REPORTJun 26, 2019 | 15:47 GMT
EU, South America: 7 European Countries Push Brussels to Close Mercosur Trade Deal
In a June 20 letter to the European Commission, the leaders of Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, the Czech Republic and Latvia expressed their support of Brussels' intention to close on a "balanced and reasonable" free trade agreement with the South American trade bloc Mercosur, Politico reported June 26.
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Quarterly ForecastsJun 17, 2019 | 14:35 GMT
Stratfor's 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast focuses on the most important factors affecting the international system this quarter.
2019 Third-Quarter Forecast
The United States will remain at the center of world events this quarter as its strategic competition with China escalates, relations with Iran deteriorate and the threat of tariffs or sanctions loom over all.
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